Croatia vs Ghana preview

2026 World Cup, World
Philadelphia Stadium Sat, 27 Jun - 9:00 PM
World Cup
CroatiaCRO
2 1
GhanaGHA
Full Time Sat, 27 Jun 9:00 PM
Round 3 Group Stage
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Croatia secured a 2-1 victory over Ghana with a halftime score of 1-0. The match featured Croatia holding 53 percent possession against Ghana's 47 percent. Despite Croatia being the stronger team and eventual winner, their xG stood at 0.48 while Ghana posted 0.63 for a differential of minus 0.15. No red cards were issued to either side. The outcome proved inconsistent with xG metrics yet showed market alignment. Deviation registered at a minimal 3.9 percent for Croatia. Efficiency shift stayed in line with projections as the game progressed from the opening goal. Second half adjustments allowed Croatia to extend their advantage to the final 2-1 scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Croatia 2-1 Ghana. Croatia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment showed inconsistency since Croatia won with lower expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the Croatia victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations gave Ghana an edge with 0.63 against Croatia's 0.48.
  • Event impact: Event impact from the halftime lead shaped Croatia's path to victory.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with zero dismissals recorded.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Fischer
D. Fischer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Barwegen
M. Barwegen
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Arfa
L. Arfa
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Kawana-Waugh
C. Kawana-Waugh
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Croatia Z. Dalić
Z. Dalić
VS
Ghana C. Brito Leal Queiróz
C. Brito Leal Queiróz
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Panama Rank: W
England Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
England Rank: D
Panama Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Croatia
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Ghana
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Croatia
+1.39%
Draw
-1.39%
Ghana
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
51.85
16.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Croatia
Ghana
Power Score
51.85
16.3
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
11
74

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Croatia — Opponent-weighted form score
Ghana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Croatia Ghana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Croatia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ghana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Croatia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ghana
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.40
15.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.43
18.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Croatia +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Ghana -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Croatia
Ghana
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Croatia
vs
Ghana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Croatia Ghana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
40%
78%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.19 vs -0.49
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Croatia Ghana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
78%
40%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.49 vs -0.19
Croatia
Ghana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Croatia
vs
Ghana
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Croatia Ghana
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Croatia 0.23
Ghana 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Croatia Ghana
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Croatia 0.04
Ghana 0.06
Croatia
Ghana
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GHA had peak pressure around 61'.
  • CRO started the game with stronger pressure.
CRO Pressure GHA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GHA reached the top pressure at 61' (63.90).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 27, 2026, 09:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Philadelphia Stadium
Capacity
69176
Attendance
68324
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Drew Fischer
Michael Barwegen
Lyes Arfa
Campbell-Kirk Kawana-Waugh

Statistics

Possession
CRO
53%
GHA
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
35 Dangerous attacks 25
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 67
7 Goal Kicks 5
6 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
16 Throwins 10
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Successful Headers 8
2 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
12 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 6
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

89 Attacks 103
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

37 Long Passes 40
523 Passes 455
478 Successful Passes 402
91 Successful Passes Percentage 88
8 Key Passes 6
16 Successful Long Passes 18
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

0 Saves 2
14 Tackles 13
4 Interceptions 10
40 Duels Won 36

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Drew Fischer

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.38
2
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
6.25
3
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.93
6
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.84
14
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Defender
6.92
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder
6.99
15
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder78'
6.66
10
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić (C) Midfielder
7.69
13
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić Midfielder
7.23
4
Josko Gvardiol
Josko Gvardiol
Defender88'
16
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Midfielder
6.72
24
Marco Pašalić
Marco Pašalić
Attacker88'
17
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
7.48
11
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
6.4
20
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic
Attacker66'
6.76
Referee : Drew Fischer

Starting XI ▼

16
Benjamin Asare
Benjamin Asare Goalkeeper
6.54
4
Jonas Adjetey
Jonas Adjetey Defender
6.43
21
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Defender46'
6.2
14
Gideon Mensah
Gideon Mensah Defender
6.75
23
Derrick Luckassen
Derrick Luckassen Defender
7.1
26
Marvin Senaya
Marvin Senaya Defender
6.89
5
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey Midfielder
6.79
8
Kwasi Sibo
Kwasi Sibo Midfielder
6.33
3
Caleb Yirenkyi
Caleb Yirenkyi
Midfielder85'
6.48
11
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
6.11
15
Elisha Owusu
Elisha Owusu Midfielder
6.44
7
Issahaku Fatawu
Issahaku Fatawu
Attacker46'
7.01
22
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Kamaldeen Sulemana Midfielder
6.39
24
Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah
Attacker71'
6.91
9
Jordan Ayew
Jordan Ayew (C) Attacker
6.33
10
Brandon Thomas-Asante
Brandon Thomas-Asante
Attacker71'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Josko Gvardiol  → Nikola Vlašić
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Marco Pašalić → Martin Baturina
9th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Caleb Yirenkyi → Kwasi Sibo
7th Substitution
Event
Nikola Vlašić
Header / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Mario Pašalić → Mateo Kovacic 
6th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Derrick Luckassen
Goal awarded
73'
Event
Derrick Luckassen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Brandon Thomas-Asante → Jordan Ayew
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Ernest Nuamah → Kamaldeen Sulemana
5th Substitution
Event
Ivan Perišić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
68'
Event
Igor Matanovic → Ante Budimir
3rd Substitution
66'
46'
Event
Issahaku Fatawu → Elisha Owusu
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kojo Peprah Oppong → Jonas Adjetey
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Petar Sučić
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Abdul Fatawu from Ghana misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. Gideon Mensah provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after Marvin Senaya concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Marvin Senaya's right-footed shot from outside the box for Ghana is blocked. He was assisted by Ernest Nuamah.
90
Update Update
Foul by Kojo Peprah Oppong of Ghana.
90
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from Croatia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kojo Peprah Oppong from Ghana receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Mario Pasalic's right-footed shot from outside the box for Croatia is blocked. Luka Modric provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Brandon Thomas-Asante from Ghana wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Marin Pongracic of Croatia.
90
Update Update
Thomas Partey from Ghana wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Marvin Senaya of Ghana.
90
Update Update
Josko Gvardiol from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo of Ghana is caught offside.
90
Update Update
Caleb Yirenkyi from Ghana commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Petar Sucic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Igor Matanovic of Croatia is caught offside.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Josko Gvardiol comes on for Nikola Vlasic.
88
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Marco Pasalic comes on for Martin Baturina.
87
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Antoine Semenyo from Ghana.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ghana: Caleb Yirenkyi comes on for Kwasi Sibo.
84
Update Update
Kwasi Sibo commits a foul for Ghana.
84
Update Update
Igor Matanovic from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nikola Vlasic scores for Croatia with a header from the center of the box after a corner. The score is now Croatia 2, Ghana 1.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Mario Pasalic's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Benjamin Asare. The assist came from Martin Baturina.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Croatia after a concession by Benjamin Asare.
81
Update Update
Marvin Senaya from Ghana is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
81
Update Update
Martin Baturina commits a foul for Croatia.
80
Update Update
Abdul Fatawu wins a free kick for Ghana in the defensive half.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikola Vlasic of Croatia.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Mario Pasalic comes on for Mateo Kovacic.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision confirms the goal. The match is now 1-1 between Croatia and Ghana, with Derrick Luckassen scoring for Ghana.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derrick Luckassen scores for Ghana with a left-footed shot from very close range after a set piece. The match is now tied at 1-1.
72
Update Update
Thomas Partey from Ghana wins a free kick in the attacking half.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Marin Pongracic of Croatia.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ghana: Ernest Nuamah comes on for Kamaldeen Sulemana.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ghana: Brandon Thomas-Asante comes on for Jordan Ayew.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Perisic of Croatia.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivan Perisic of Croatia receives a yellow card for a foul.
68
Update Update
Abdul Fatawu from Ghana is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Croatia: Igor Matanovic comes on for Ante Budimir.
65
Corner Corner
Ghana is awarded a corner after Josip Stanisic concedes.
59
Update Update
Dominik Livakovic wins a free kick for Croatia in the defensive half.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Ayew of Ghana.
57
Attempt Attempt
Kamaldeen Sulemana from Ghana has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
56
Corner Corner
Ghana wins a corner after Luka Modric concedes.
55
Update Update
Derrick Luckassen from Ghana is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Marvin Senaya of Ghana.
53
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia wins a free kick in the defensive half.
53
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo is flagged for offside for Ghana.
51
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
51
Update Update
Marvin Senaya from Ghana wins a free kick on the right wing.
47
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Abdul Fatawu from Ghana, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Croatia 1, Ghana 0.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ghana: Abdul Fatawu comes on for Elisha Owusu.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ghana: Kojo Peprah Oppong comes on for Jonas Adjetey.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Thomas Partey (Ghana).
45
Update Update
Petar Sucic wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
43
Update Update
Gideon Mensah from Ghana is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikola Vlasic of Croatia.
40
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo from Ghana misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it close but to the left. He was assisted by Jonas Adjetey.
38
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Kovacic's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Petar Sucic.
35
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Kwasi Sibo commits a foul for Ghana.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Croatia leads 1-0 against Ghana. Petar Sucic scores for Croatia with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Mateo Kovacic.
30
Corner Corner
Ivan Perisic's header from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Benjamin Asare. The attempt was assisted by Luka Modric's cross.
30
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
30
Update Update
Elisha Owusu commits a foul for Ghana.
29
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
25
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
24
Update Update
Ante Budimir commits a foul for Croatia.
24
Update Update
Thomas Partey from Ghana is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Marin Pongracic (Croatia) had a header from the center of the box after a set piece situation.
20
Update Update
Petar Sucic wins a free kick for Croatia in the attacking half.
20
Update Update
Kwasi Sibo commits a foul for Ghana.
17
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Vlasic from Croatia hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a quick counterattack.
8
Update Update
Elisha Owusu of Ghana commits a foul.
8
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Kamaldeen Sulemana of Ghana.
4
Update Update
Petar Sucic from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Marvin Senaya commits a foul for Ghana.
1
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Croatia is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Drew Fischer.

CONCLUSION

Croatia claimed the 2-1 result over Ghana after leading 1-0 at the interval. The win occurred even though Ghana generated superior xG output during the contest. Possession edges proved slight and did not dictate the final margin. Absence of red cards kept both sides at full strength for the duration. The minimal deviation level confirmed limited departure from expected patterns. Efficiency metrics aligned closely with overall projections from start to finish. This outcome underscores how actual scoring can diverge from underlying metrics while still satisfying market expectations in the end.