Columbus Crew vs Cincinnati preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Lower.com Field Sat, 25 Jul - 11:15 PM
Major League Soccer
Columbus CrewCOL
2 1
CincinnatiCIN
Full Time Sat, 25 Jul 11:15 PM
Regular Season
Dániel Gazdag - 45+6' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
|
Red Card Gerardo Valenzuela 90+4'

CONTEXT

Columbus Crew secured a 2-1 victory over Cincinnati with the halftime score standing at 2-1. The home team controlled 53 percent of possession against the visitors 47 percent. Expected goals stood at 2.1 for Columbus Crew and 0.76 for Cincinnati creating a differential of 1.34. Cincinnati entered as the stronger side yet finished on the losing end after receiving one red card while Columbus Crew had none. The result proved consistent with xG data and reflected a significant deviation for the winners. Efficiency remained in line with the observed patterns throughout the contest. No additional goals occurred after the interval despite the numerical advantage for the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Columbus Crew 2-1 Cincinnati. Columbus Crew showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the observed patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned with the expected goals generated during the match.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Columbus Crew posted 2.1 xG while Cincinnati finished with 0.76 xG.
  • Event impact: Cincinnati received a red card that limited their second-half response.
  • Red card distortion: The red card created measurable distortion in second-half dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Chapman
A. Chapman
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Bigelow
A. Bigelow
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Swartzel
J. Swartzel
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Penso
C. Penso
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Columbus Crew L. Courtois
L. Courtois
VS
Cincinnati P. Noonan
P. Noonan
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
New York City Rank: 66 L
Atlanta United Rank: 55 W
Philadelphia Union Rank: 63 D
New York RB Rank: 61 L
New York City Rank: 67 L
Minnesota United Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 73 W
Orlando City Rank: 65 W
San Diego Rank: 66 D
Inter Miami Rank: 77 L
Charlotte Rank: 64 D
Chicago Fire Rank: 66 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.31
68.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Columbus Crew
Cincinnati
Power Score
65.31
68.07
League Position
11
5
Global Rank
379
305

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Columbus Crew — Opponent-weighted form score
Cincinnati — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Columbus Crew Cincinnati

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Columbus Crew

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cincinnati

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Columbus Crew ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cincinnati
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
9.35
12.76
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.76
9.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Columbus Crew -0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Cincinnati +0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Columbus Crew
Cincinnati
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Columbus Crew
vs
Cincinnati
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Columbus Crew Cincinnati
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
51%
11%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.07 vs -0.08
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Columbus Crew Cincinnati
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
11%
51%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.08 vs -0.07
Columbus Crew
Cincinnati
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Columbus Crew
vs
Cincinnati
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Columbus Crew Cincinnati
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Columbus Crew 0.11
Cincinnati 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Columbus Crew Cincinnati
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Columbus Crew 0.06
Cincinnati 0.00
Columbus Crew
Cincinnati
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CIN had peak pressure around 93'.
  • CIN started the game with stronger pressure.
COL Pressure CIN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CIN reached the top pressure at 93' (84.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Columbus Crew COL Home
7 matches
Cincinnati CIN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
11
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:04:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 25, 2026, 11:15 PM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Lower.com Field
Capacity
20371
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Allen Chapman
Andrew Bigelow
Jeffrey Swartzel
Chris Penso

Statistics

Possession
COL
52%
CIN
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
77 Dangerous attacks 63
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Ball Safe 52
1 Penalties 0
9 Goal Kicks 5
10 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 6
14 Throwins 17
2 Successful Headers 4
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
11 Dribble Attempts 14
2 Successful Dribbles 5
18 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36

Attacking

117 Attacks 125
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

37 Long Passes 26
532 Passes 462
482 Successful Passes 408
91 Successful Passes Percentage 88
12 Key Passes 10
22 Successful Long Passes 16
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62

Defensive

4 Saves 4
20 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 11
35 Duels Won 42

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 23
2 Accurate Crosses 12

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Allen Chapman

Starting XI ▼

28
Patrick Schulte
Patrick Schulte Goalkeeper
6.52
4
Rudy Camacho
Rudy Camacho Defender
6.46
25
Sean Zawadzki
Sean Zawadzki (C) Defender
6.5
31
Steven Moreira
Steven Moreira Defender
6.44
18
Malte Amundsen
Malte Amundsen
Defender85'
7
Dylan Chambost
Dylan Chambost Midfielder
6.79
—
Dylan Chambost
70'
17
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura Midfielder
6.6
20
André Gomes
André Gomes
Midfielder46'
23
Mohamed Farsi
Mohamed Farsi Midfielder
6.56
27
Max Arfsten
Max Arfsten Midfielder
6.49
8
Dániel Gazdag
Dániel Gazdag Attacker
6.79
46
Chase Adams
Chase Adams
Attacker85'
16
Taha Habroune
Taha Habroune Attacker
6.42
19
Jamal Thiaré
Jamal Thiaré Attacker
6.27
30
Hugo Picard
Hugo Picard
Midfielder79'
Referee : Allen Chapman

Starting XI ▼

18
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano Goalkeeper
6.77
11
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi Defender
6.7
12
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson Defender
6.74
21
Matt Miazga
Matt Miazga Defender
6.51
24
Kyle Smith
Kyle Smith
Defender70'
5
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo Midfielder
6.84
27
Tah Anunga
Tah Anunga
Midfielder85'
20
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha Midfielder
6.73
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
Gerardo Valenzuela Midfielder
6.95
66
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique Midfielder
6.33
29
Bryan Ramírez
Bryan Ramírez
Defender64'
9
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey Attacker
7.5
99
Ayoub Jabbari
Ayoub Jabbari
Attacker70'
10
Evander
Evander (C) Attacker
7.01
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem Attacker
6.65
16
Tom Barlow
Tom Barlow
Attacker64'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Gerardo Valenzuela
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Chase Adams → Dániel Gazdag
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Malte Amundsen → Steven Moreira
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Tah Anunga → Obinna Nwobodo
10th Substitution
Event
Hugo Picard → Jamal Thiaré
7th Substitution
79'
Event
→ Dylan Chambost
5th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Ayoub Jabbari → Kévin Denkey
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Kyle Smith → Matt Miazga
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Matt Miazga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
64'
Event
Tom Barlow → Kenji Mboma Dem
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Bryan Ramírez → Ender Echenique
3rd Substitution
Event
André Gomes → Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dániel Gazdag
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+6'
Event
Jamal Thiaré
Header / 2nd Goal
41'
9'
Event
Kévin Denkey
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card
90
Update Update
Offside
90
Corner Corner
Corner
86
Update Update
On Malte Amundsen，Off Steven Moreira
86
Update Update
On Chase Adams，Off Daniel Gazdag
85
Update Update
On Chase Adams，Off Daniel Gazdag
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Max Arfsten Right Footed Shot Saved
81
Update Update
Offside
80
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Evander da Silva Ferreira Right Footed Shot Missed
79
Update Update
On Hugo Picard，Off Jamal Thiare
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Evander da Silva Ferreira Right Footed Shot Missed
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Evander da Silva Ferreira Right Footed Shot Missed
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Taha Habroune Left Footed Shot Saved
75
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Taha Habroune Left Footed Shot Saved
73
Update Update
Offside
72
Update Update
On Tarun Karumanchi，Off Dylan Chambost
71
Update Update
On Ayoub Jabbari，Off Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey
71
Update Update
On Kyle Smith，Off Matthew Miazga
68
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tom Barlow Head Shot Saved
67
Corner Corner
Corner
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Matthew Miazga
65
Update Update
On Bryan Ramirez，Off Ender Echenique
65
Update Update
On Tom Barlow，Off Kenji Mboma
65
Corner Corner
Corner
64
Corner Corner
Corner
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Dylan Chambost Left Footed Shot Blocked
56
Corner Corner
Corner
55
Corner Corner
Corner
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Taha Habroune Right Footed Shot Missed
46
Update Update
On Andre Filipe Tavares Gomes，Off Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Daniel Gazdag Right Footed Shot Goal
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Daniel Gazdag 2-1
45
Corner Corner
Corner
45
Corner Corner
Corner
45
Corner Corner
Corner
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Evander da Silva Ferreira Left Footed Shot Saved
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Jamal Thiare 1-1
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Jamal Thiare 1-1
41
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Jamal Thiare Right Footed Shot Saved
41
Corner Corner
Corner
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey Right Footed Shot Missed
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey Right Footed Shot Saved
28
Corner Corner
Corner
27
Corner Corner
Corner
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Kenji Mboma Head Shot Missed
21
Corner Corner
Corner
19
Corner Corner
Corner
18
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Dylan Chambost Left Footed Shot Missed
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Steven Moreira Right Footed Shot Saved
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gerardo Valenzuela Right Footed Shot Saved
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey Left Footed Shot Goal
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey 0-1
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Allen Chapman

CONCLUSION

The 2-1 result highlighted how Columbus Crew capitalized on early scoring and maintained control after the away side was reduced to ten men. Possession edges and xG differentials supported the home victory without requiring further goals in the second period. Cincinnati as the stronger side on paper could not overcome the numerical disadvantage or close the expected goals gap. Efficiency metrics stayed aligned with overall patterns while the structural deviation favored the winners. The red card served as the primary adjustment factor that shaped the closing stages. This outcome reinforced the value of converting early chances and managing games under reduced opposition numbers.