Coleraine vs HJK preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Inver Park Thu, 30 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
ColeraineCOLE
0 3
HJKHJK.
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 8
|
Goal
Toivo Mero - 12'
Alfie Cicale - 34'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Coleraine 0–3 HJK. The result saw HJK take the points. HJK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Coleraine 0-3 HJK. HJK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Performance efficiency remained in line with expectations throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available to determine alignment with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with pre-match projections for the tie.
  • xG expectations: Absence of expected goals metrics limited analysis of scoring projections.
  • Event impact: As the second leg of the knockout tie, the result confirmed HJK's advancement with an aggregate lead.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards shown, the game proceeded without any disciplinary distortions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Galia
S. Galia
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Macias
M. Macias
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Guerrero
F. Guerrero
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Reoch
T. Reoch
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Coleraine R. Higgins
R. Higgins
VS
HJK J. Rantanen
J. Rantanen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
HJK Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coleraine Rank: 55 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Coleraine
29.97%
Draw
26.53%
Away HJK
43.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Coleraine
+28.53%
Draw
+24.63%
HJK
-53.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
48.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Coleraine
HJK
Power Score
50
48.15
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Coleraine — Opponent-weighted form score
HJK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Coleraine HJK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Coleraine

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

HJK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Coleraine ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HJK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.72
16.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.05
28.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Coleraine +1.19 Efficiency Index
vs
HJK -1.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Coleraine
HJK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Coleraine ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HJK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Coleraine HJK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Coleraine HJK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Coleraine
HJK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Coleraine
vs
HJK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Coleraine HJK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Coleraine 0.21
HJK 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Coleraine HJK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Coleraine 0.07
HJK 0.00
Coleraine
HJK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HJK. had peak pressure around 45'.
  • COLE started the game with stronger pressure.
COLE Pressure HJK. Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HJK. reached the top pressure at 45' (72.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Coleraine COLE Home
1 matches
HJK HJK. Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
0
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:06:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 8
Stadium
Inver Park
Capacity
6000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Seth Galia
Michael Macias
Faustino Guerrero
Tim Reoch

Statistics

Possession
COLE
50%
HJK.
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
7 Shots 2
47 Dangerous attacks 43
43 Possession 57
1 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 14

Attacking

104 Attacks 94

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Seth Galia

Starting XI ▼

12
Lewis Webb
Lewis Webb Goalkeeper
5.68
2
Lyndon Kane
Lyndon Kane Defender
5.88
3
Dean Jarvis
Dean Jarvis Defender
6.05
15
Levi Ives
Levi Ives
Defender46'
6.26
23
Ben Doherty
Ben Doherty Defender
5.88
4
Dylan Boyle
Dylan Boyle Midfielder
6.18
8
Will Patching
Will Patching Midfielder
6.18
7
Lewis McGregor
Lewis McGregor
Midfielder65'
6.5
11
Joel Cooper
Joel Cooper (C) Midfielder
6.13
20
Senan Devine
Senan Devine Midfielder
6.18
17
Jay Henderson
Jay Henderson
Midfielder65'
6.5
21
Rowan McDonald
Rowan McDonald Midfielder
6.18
22
Ben Wylie
Ben Wylie Midfielder
6.18
9
Matthew Shevlin
Matthew Shevlin Attacker
6.38
24
Conor McMenamin
Conor McMenamin
Attacker56'
6.5
Referee : Seth Galia

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesse Öst
Jesse Öst Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Till Cissokho
Till Cissokho Defender
6.5
24
Emil Leveälahti
Emil Leveälahti
Defender46'
6.5
6
Ville Tikkanen
Ville Tikkanen Defender
6.5
13
Kaius Simojoki
Kaius Simojoki Defender
6.5
28
Miska Ylitolva
Miska Ylitolva Defender
6.5
7
Alfie Cicale
Alfie Cicale Midfielder
7.06
10
Lucas Lingman
Lucas Lingman (C) Midfielder
6.5
15
Jere Kallinen
Jere Kallinen
Midfielder46'
6.5
17
Martin Kirilov
Martin Kirilov Midfielder
6.5
4
Alexander Ring
Alexander Ring
Midfielder78'
6.5
18
Toivo Mero
Toivo Mero Midfielder
6.69
22
Liam Möller
Liam Möller
Midfielder78'
6.5
32
Mouhamed Guèye
Mouhamed Guèye Midfielder
6.69
29
Santeri Haarala
Santeri Haarala
Attacker78'
6.5
20
Teemu Pukki
Teemu Pukki Attacker
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
78'
Event
Santeri Haarala → Mouhamed Guèye
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Liam Möller → Toivo Mero
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Alexander Ring  → Martin Kirilov
9th Substitution
Event
Jay Henderson → Senan Devine
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Lewis McGregor → Will Patching
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Conor McMenamin → Matthew Shevlin
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Joel Cooper 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
54'
53'
Event
Mouhamed Guèye
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Levi Ives → Dean Jarvis
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jere Kallinen → Lucas Lingman
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Emil Leveälahti → Till Cissokho
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Alfie Cicale
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Toivo Mero
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

79
Substitution Substitution
Alex Ring is substituted on for Martin Kirilov.
78
Update Update
Santeri Haarala comes on for Mouhamed Gueye.
78
Substitution Substitution
Alex Ring is substituted for Martin Kirilov.
65
Update Update
Jay Henderson comes on for Senan Devine.
65
Substitution Substitution
Lewis McGregor is substituted for Will Patching.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Update Update
Conor McMenamin comes on for Matthew Shevlin.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Emil Levealahti comes on for Till Cissokho.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Levi Ives comes on for Dean Jarvis.
46
Substitution Substitution
Alex Ring is substituted for Till Cissokho.
46
Update Update
On Jere Kallinen, off Alex Ring.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alfie Cicale scores, making it 0-2.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Toivo Mero scores, making it 0-1.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Seth Galia.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Coleraine 0-3 HJK. Structural assessment: HJK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.