Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
TQL Stadium Wed, 22 Jul - 11:30 PM
Major League Soccer
CincinnatiCIN
4 3
Vancouver WhitecapsVAN
Full Time Wed, 22 Jul 11:30 PM
Regular Season
Pavel Bucha - 9', 56'
Evander - 36'
Goal
|
Goal
Ryan Gauld - 24', 58'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Cincinnati 4–3 Vancouver Whitecaps. The result saw Cincinnati take the points. Cincinnati showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Cincinnati 1.5 – 2 Vancouver Whitecaps. Possession was 38%–62%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Cincinnati 4-3 Vancouver Whitecaps. Cincinnati showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Freemon
J. Freemon
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Cincinnati P. Noonan
P. Noonan
VS
Vancouver Whitecaps J. Sørensen
J. Sørensen
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orlando City Rank: 63 W
San Diego Rank: 66 D
Inter Miami Rank: 76 L
Charlotte Rank: 64 D
Chicago Fire Rank: 65 W
New York RB Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
San Diego Rank: 66 W
Houston Dynamo Rank: 62 L
Dallas Rank: 66 W
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 66 D
LA Galaxy Rank: 61 D
Colorado Rapids Rank: 60 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.78
72.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
Power Score
66.78
72.8
League Position
7
1
Global Rank
323
174

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cincinnati — Opponent-weighted form score
Vancouver Whitecaps — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cincinnati Vancouver Whitecaps

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cincinnati

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vancouver Whitecaps

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cincinnati ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vancouver Whitecaps
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
6.03
7.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.13
6.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cincinnati -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cincinnati
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cincinnati Vancouver Whitecaps
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
29%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.08 vs -0.57
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cincinnati Vancouver Whitecaps
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
29%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.57 vs -0.08
Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cincinnati
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cincinnati Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cincinnati 0.29
Vancouver Whitecaps 0.57
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cincinnati Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cincinnati 0.14
Vancouver Whitecaps 0.14
Cincinnati
Vancouver Whitecaps
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VAN had peak pressure around 70'.
  • VAN started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
CIN Pressure VAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VAN reached the top pressure at 70' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 22, 2026, 11:30 PM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
TQL Stadium
Capacity
26000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jon Freemon

Statistics

Possession
CIN
41%
VAN
59%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 7
22 Dangerous attacks 54
38 Possession 62
1 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

24 Ball Safe 28
12 Goal Kicks 0
4 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
9 Throwins 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Successful Headers 2
1 Assists 1
13 Dribble Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 5
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 83

Attacking

53 Attacks 84
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

52 Long Passes 30
394 Passes 612
330 Successful Passes 552
84 Successful Passes Percentage 90
8 Key Passes 15
25 Successful Long Passes 16
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

3 Saves 2
17 Tackles 17
8 Interceptions 6
52 Duels Won 42

Build-up

1 Total Crosses 28
1 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Jon Freemon

Starting XI ▼

18
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano Goalkeeper
6.31
11
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi Defender
6.45
15
Teenage Hadebe
Teenage Hadebe
Defender89'
12
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson Defender
6.21
24
Kyle Smith
Kyle Smith
Defender64'
21
Matt Miazga
Matt Miazga Defender
6.16
5
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo Midfielder
6.86
20
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha Midfielder
2
6.92
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
Gerardo Valenzuela Midfielder
6.27
66
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique Midfielder
6.49
29
Bryan Ramírez
Bryan Ramírez
Defender64'
9
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey Attacker
6.59
99
Ayoub Jabbari
Ayoub Jabbari
Attacker89'
10
Evander
Evander (C) Attacker
6.59
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem Attacker
6.35
16
Tom Barlow
Tom Barlow
Attacker64'
Referee : Jon Freemon

Starting XI ▼

1
Yohei Takaoka
Yohei Takaoka Goalkeeper
6.28
2
Mathías Laborda
Mathías Laborda Defender
6.63
18
Édier Ocampo
Édier Ocampo Defender
6.25
4
Ranko Veselinović
Ranko Veselinović
Defender84'
28
Tate Johnson
Tate Johnson Defender
6.23
33
Tristan Blackmon
Tristan Blackmon Defender
6.26
8
Oliver Larraz
Oliver Larraz Midfielder
6.4
14
Bruno Caicedo
Bruno Caicedo Midfielder
6.96
7
Cheikh Sabaly
Cheikh Sabaly
Attacker44'
20
Andrés Cubas
Andrés Cubas Midfielder
6.6
19
Rayan Elloumi
Rayan Elloumi
Attacker84'
25
Ryan Gauld
Ryan Gauld (C) Midfielder
2
6.43
41
Nikola Djordjevic
Nikola Djordjevic
Defender63'
59
Jeevan Badwal
Jeevan Badwal Midfielder
7.2
26
J.C. Ngando
J.C. Ngando
Midfielder62'
24
Brian White
Brian White Attacker
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Teenage Hadebe → Samuel Gidi
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Ayoub Jabbari → Kévin Denkey
10th Substitution
89'
84'
Event
Rayan Elloumi → Andrés Cubas
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Ranko Veselinović → Édier Ocampo
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Brian White
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Tom Barlow → Kenji Mboma Dem
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Bryan Ramírez → Ender Echenique
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Kyle Smith → Miles Robinson
6th Substitution
64'
63'
Event
Nikola Djordjevic → Ryan Gauld
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
J.C. Ngando → Jeevan Badwal
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Andrés Cubas
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Ryan Gauld
Left foot shot / 7th Goal
Event
Pavel Bucha
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
56'
48'
Event
Édier Ocampo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Cheikh Sabaly → Bruno Caicedo
1st Substitution
Event
Pavel Bucha
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Evander
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
36'
Event
Kévin Denkey
Header / 4th Goal
28'
24'
Event
Ryan Gauld
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
17'
Event
Mathías Laborda
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
12'
Event
Jeevan Badwal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Pavel Bucha
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'
2'
Event
Tristan Blackmon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Laborda attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Elloumi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Mathias Laborda takes a header, but it hits the post.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Update Update
On comes Teenage Hadebe, off goes Samuel Gidi.
89
Substitution Substitution
Ayoub Jabbari is substituted off for Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey.
88
Update Update
Offside.
86
Update Update
Offside.
85
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Update Update
Rayan Elloumi comes on for Adrian Andres Cubas.
84
Update Update
On comes Ranko Veselinovic, and Edier Ocampo makes way.
79
Update Update
Offside.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Attempt Attempt
J.C. Ngando takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Larraz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
J.C. Ngando takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Cheikh Tidiane Sabaly takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Update Update
Kyle Smith replaces Miles Robinson.
64
Update Update
Tom Barlow is on, and Kenji Mboma is off.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bryan Ramirez comes on for Ender Echenique.
63
Update Update
Nikola Djordjevic is on, and Ryan Gauld is off.
63
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Laborda takes a header shot but misses.
62
Substitution Substitution
J.C. Ngando is substituted for Jeevan Badwal.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Andres Cubas receives a yellow card.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ryan Gauld scores with a left-footed shot.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-3.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Pavel Bucha takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-2.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
46
Attempt Attempt
Brian White takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Update Update
Cheikh Tidiane Sabaly comes on for Bruno Caicedo.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Gauld takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Evander da Silva Ferreira scores, making it 3-2.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey scores with a header.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-2.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ryan Gauld scores, making it 1-2.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Ryan Gauld with his left foot results in a goal.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
21
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Gauld takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias Laborda receives a yellow card.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias Laborda receives a yellow card.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Jeevan Badwal scores with a right-footed shot.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jeevan Badwal scores, bringing the score to 1-1.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Pavel Bucha takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Laborda attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Quiñonez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tristan Blackmon receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jon Freemon.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Cincinnati 4-3 Vancouver Whitecaps. Structural assessment: Cincinnati exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.