Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
TQL Stadium Sun, 2 Aug - 1:46 AM
Major League Soccer
CincinnatiCIN
4 2
SJ EarthquakesSJE
Full Time Sun, 2 Aug 1:46 AM
Regular Season
Tom Barlow - 80'
Evander - 82'
Ayoub Jabbari - 90+5'
Goal
|
Goal
Daniel Munie - 26'
Timo Werner - 56'

CONTEXT

In a thrilling encounter at home, Cincinnati overcame SJ Earthquakes with a final score of 4-2. The match was evenly poised at halftime with both sides finding the net once for a 1-1 scoreline. Cincinnati controlled the game with 60 percent possession and generated an expected goals tally of 2.3 against the visitors' 1.4. The stronger team, Cincinnati, secured the victory in line with their xG advantage of 0.9. Despite a significant deviation level of 100 percent attributed to the home side, the result proved consistent with projections. No red cards were shown throughout the contest, allowing for uninterrupted play. The outcome highlighted Cincinnati's efficiency in converting opportunities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Cincinnati 4-2 SJ Earthquakes. Cincinnati showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with the expected goals differential of 0.9.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome was aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Cincinnati's xG of 2.3 exceeded SJ Earthquakes' 1.4, setting expectations for a home victory.
  • Event impact: The absence of second half adjustments maintained the game's structural integrity.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Rivas
V. Rivas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. McKay
I. McKay
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Dunn
B. Dunn
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Demianchuk
S. Demianchuk
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Cincinnati P. Noonan
P. Noonan
VS
SJ Earthquakes B. Arena
B. Arena
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Columbus Crew Rank: 65 L
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 73 W
Orlando City Rank: 67 W
San Diego Rank: 68 D
Inter Miami Rank: 78 L
Charlotte Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LA Galaxy Rank: 61 D
Orlando City Rank: 63 L
Portland Timbers Rank: 64 W
Dallas Rank: 68 L
Seattle Sounders Rank: 68 L
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 74 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.47
66.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cincinnati
SJ Earthquakes
Power Score
69.47
66.35
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
322
410

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cincinnati — Opponent-weighted form score
SJ Earthquakes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cincinnati SJ Earthquakes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cincinnati

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SJ Earthquakes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cincinnati ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SJ Earthquakes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.67
34.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.50
39.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cincinnati +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
SJ Earthquakes -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cincinnati
SJ Earthquakes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cincinnati
vs
SJ Earthquakes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cincinnati SJ Earthquakes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
23%
23%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.54 vs -0.32
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cincinnati SJ Earthquakes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
23%
23%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.32 vs -0.54
Cincinnati
SJ Earthquakes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cincinnati
vs
SJ Earthquakes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cincinnati SJ Earthquakes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cincinnati 0.38
SJ Earthquakes 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cincinnati SJ Earthquakes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cincinnati 0.06
SJ Earthquakes 0.07
Cincinnati
SJ Earthquakes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CIN had peak pressure around 13'.
  • CIN started the game with stronger pressure.
CIN Pressure SJE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CIN reached the top pressure at 13' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cincinnati CIN Home
1 matches
SJ Earthquakes SJE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-03T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 02, 2026, 01:46 AM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
TQL Stadium
Capacity
26000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Víctor Rivas
Ian McKay
Brian Dunn
Sergii Demianchuk

Statistics

Possession
CIN
58%
SJE
42%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
7 Shots 6
56 Dangerous attacks 36
60 Possession 40
9 Corners 6
6 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 15
5 Substitutions 6
16 Throwins 19
1 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Successful Headers 23
4 Assists 2
20 Dribble Attempts 16
12 Successful Dribbles 8
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

114 Attacks 67
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

45 Long Passes 62
506 Passes 325
419 Successful Passes 241
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
14 Key Passes 7
18 Successful Long Passes 34
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

0 Saves 7
14 Tackles 13
13 Interceptions 8
44 Duels Won 46

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Víctor Rivas

Starting XI ▼

18
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano Goalkeeper
6.14
11
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi Defender
7.01
12
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson Defender
6.73
24
Kyle Smith
Kyle Smith Defender
6.14
15
Teenage Hadebe
Teenage Hadebe
Defender70'
6.56
5
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo Midfielder
7.31
27
Tah Anunga
Tah Anunga
Midfielder89'
20
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha Midfielder
6.61
29
Bryan Ramírez
Bryan Ramírez Midfielder
7.72
66
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique Midfielder
6.86
2
Alvas Powell
Alvas Powell
Defender88'
9
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey Attacker
6.82
99
Ayoub Jabbari
Ayoub Jabbari
Attacker90+3'
7.07
10
Evander
Evander (C) Attacker
9.57
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem Attacker
6.88
16
Tom Barlow
Tom Barlow
Attacker70'
8.01
Referee : Víctor Rivas

Starting XI ▼

1
Angus Gunn
Angus Gunn Goalkeeper
7.4
5
Daniel Munie
Daniel Munie Defender
6.87
18
Reid Roberts
Reid Roberts Defender
6.15
28
Benji Kikanović
Benji Kikanović Defender
6.56
17
Jack Jasinski
Jack Jasinski
Defender81'
6.22
87
Vítor Costa
Vítor Costa Defender
6.47
2
Jamar Ricketts
Jamar Ricketts
Defender60'
6.13
14
Ronaldo Vieira
Ronaldo Vieira (C) Midfielder
6.82
4
Dave Romney
Dave Romney
Defender81'
6.13
20
Nick Fernandez
Nick Fernandez Midfielder
6.45
6
Ian Harkes
Ian Harkes
Midfielder46'
6.56
34
Beau Leroux
Beau Leroux Midfielder
6.18
7
Ousseni Bouda
Ousseni Bouda Attacker
6.62
16
Jack Skahan
Jack Skahan
Midfielder73'
6.35
11
Timo Werner
Timo Werner Attacker
8.51
19
Preston Judd
Preston Judd Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ayoub Jabbari
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
90+5'
Event
Ayoub Jabbari → Kévin Denkey
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Tah Anunga → Obinna Nwobodo
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Miles Robinson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Alvas Powell → Ender Echenique
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Pavel Bucha
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Evander
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
81'
Event
Jack Jasinski → Benji Kikanović
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Dave Romney → Ronaldo Vieira
7th Substitution
Event
Tom Barlow
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
73'
Event
Jack Skahan → Ousseni Bouda
5th Substitution
Event
Tom Barlow → Kenji Mboma Dem
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Teenage Hadebe → Kyle Smith
4th Substitution
70'
60'
Event
Jamar Ricketts → Vítor Costa
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Timo Werner
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Ian Harkes → Nick Fernandez
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bryan Ramírez
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
26'
Event
Daniel Munie
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Kyle Smith
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jamar Ricketts takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jamar Ricketts takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jamar Ricketts takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ayoub Jabbari scores, making it 4-2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ayoub Jabbari takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Substitution Substitution
Ayoub Jabbari is substituted off for Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ian Harkes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Munie takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miles Robinson receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Brian Anunga Tah is on, and Obinna Nwobodo is off.
88
Update Update
Alvas Powell comes on for Ender Echenique.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
82
Update Update
On comes David Romney, off goes Ronaldo Vieira.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
82
Update Update
Jack Jasinski is on, and Benjamin Kikanovic is off.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-2.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tom Barlow takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tom Barlow scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
79
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Preston Judd Head Shot Missed
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
Offside.
74
Attempt Attempt
Preston Judd's right-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Jack Skahan is on, and Ousseni Bouda is off.
73
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Gidi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Teenage Hadebe comes on for Kyle Smith.
70
Substitution Substitution
Tom Barlow is substituted off for Kenji Mboma.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Update Update
Jamar Ricketts is on, and Vitor Costa de Brito is off.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey with his right foot, but it's saved.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Timo Werner scores, making it 1-2.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Timo Werner scores, making it 1-2.
55
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 1-1.
43
Update Update
Offside.
43
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Kikanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bryan Ramirez scores with a left-footed shot.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Kenji Mboma with his left foot is saved.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Attempt Attempt
Kenji Mboma takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal by Daniel Munie with a header.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Daniel Munie scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Timo Werner.
23
Attempt Attempt
Kenji Mboma takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Attempt Attempt
Obinna Nwobodo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyle Smith receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Preston Judd takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Nick Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Kenji Mboma takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Bucha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Bucha takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Bucha takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Bucha takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Update Update
Offside.
4
Attempt Attempt
Preston Judd takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Víctor Rivas.

CONCLUSION

Cincinnati's 4-2 triumph over SJ Earthquakes showcased their ability to dominate proceedings after an even first half where the score stood at 1-1. With superior possession at 60 percent and xG figures of 2.3 to 1.4, the home team pulled away in the second period to claim the victory. The lack of any dismissals ensured a full complement of players on the pitch for both sides, contributing to an open and attacking game throughout the ninety minutes. This result reinforces Cincinnati's position as the stronger side in this fixture, as their performance metrics closely mirrored the expected outcomes from the data. The visitors will need to reflect on defensive lapses that allowed multiple goals despite holding their own in the opening stages.