Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
TQL Stadium
Major League Soccer
CincinnatiCIN
1 – 1
Seattle SoundersSEA
Full Time
Regular Season
Evander - 24'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested match between Cincinnati and Seattle Sounders, the home side took an early lead with a goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite dominating possession with 70 percent, Cincinnati could not hold onto the advantage as the visitors equalized in the second half for a final score of 1-1. The expected goals were nearly identical at 1.18 for the home team and 1.19 for the away side, reflecting a balanced attacking output. The stronger team according to pre-match assessment was Cincinnati, yet the draw proved consistent with the underlying metrics. No red cards were shown to either side throughout the ninety minutes. This result highlighted the competitive nature of the encounter where efficiency remained in line with projections despite the significant deviation noted for the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cincinnati showed a significant structural deviation of 100 percent from expected outcomes.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with projections for the teams involved.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment was evident as the 1-1 score matched the close expected goals figures.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the draw result consistent with available indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations saw home side at 1.18 and away side at 1.19 nearly equal.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 1-0 impacted the game but led to a second half equalizer.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with no cards shown to either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Fischer
D. Fischer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Cincinnati P. Noonan
P. Noonan
VS
Seattle Sounders B. Schmetzer
B. Schmetzer
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
New York City Rank: 67 W
Orlando City Rank: 65 D
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 67 W
Columbus Crew Rank: 64 L
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 72 W
Orlando City Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austin Rank: 57 L
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 72 L
Portland Timbers Rank: 64 L
Philadelphia Union Rank: 65 L
Austin Rank: 58 L
Portland Timbers Rank: 63 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.63
64.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
Power Score
68.63
64.34
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
296
410

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cincinnati — Opponent-weighted form score
Seattle Sounders — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cincinnati Seattle Sounders

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cincinnati

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Seattle Sounders

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cincinnati ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Seattle Sounders
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.36
9.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
9.46
17.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cincinnati +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Seattle Sounders -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cincinnati
vs
Seattle Sounders
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cincinnati Seattle Sounders
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
14%
45%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.16 vs -0.54
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cincinnati Seattle Sounders
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
45%
14%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.54 vs -0.16
Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cincinnati
vs
Seattle Sounders
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cincinnati Seattle Sounders
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cincinnati 0.37
Seattle Sounders 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cincinnati Seattle Sounders
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cincinnati 0.00
Seattle Sounders 0.03
Cincinnati
Seattle Sounders
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CIN had peak pressure around 42'.
  • CIN started the game with stronger pressure.
CIN Pressure SEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CIN reached the top pressure at 42' (93.90).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
TQL Stadium
Capacity
26000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Drew Fischer

Statistics

Possession
CIN
67%
SEA
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 23
70 Possession 30
9 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 2
1 Successful Headers 1
20 Dribble Attempts 8
12 Successful Dribbles 2
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

Attacking

113 Attacks 70
5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

34 Long Passes 35
685 Passes 281
623 Successful Passes 237
91 Successful Passes Percentage 84
10 Key Passes 9
21 Successful Long Passes 13
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

3 Saves 7
12 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 8
50 Duels Won 37

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Drew Fischer

Starting XI ▼

18
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano Goalkeeper
6.71
11
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi Defender
6.87
12
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson Defender
6.85
88
A. Chirilă
A. Chirilă Defender
6.83
10
Evander
Evander (C) Midfielder
7.84
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
Gerardo Valenzuela Midfielder
7.18
27
Tah Anunga
Tah Anunga Midfielder
7.07
5
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo
Midfielder89'
29
Bryan Ramírez
Bryan Ramírez Midfielder
6.52
20
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha
Midfielder73'
66
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique Midfielder
6.82
2
Alvas Powell
Alvas Powell
Defender89'
16
Tom Barlow
Tom Barlow Attacker
6.76
99
Ayoub Jabbari
Ayoub Jabbari
Attacker73'
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem Attacker
6.54
9
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey
Attacker59'
Referee : Drew Fischer

Starting XI ▼

26
Andrew Thomas
Andrew Thomas Goalkeeper
7.73
4
Ryan Sailor
Ryan Sailor Defender
6.22
14
Paul Rothrock
Paul Rothrock (C) Defender
6.98
35
Antino Lopez
Antino Lopez Defender
5.96
11
Albert Rusnák
Albert Rusnák
Midfielder77'
39
Stuart Hawkins
Stuart Hawkins Defender
6.55
85
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi Defender
6.27
30
Edson Carli
Edson Carli Midfielder
6.52
5
Nouhou
Nouhou
Defender61'
37
Snyder Brunell
Snyder Brunell Midfielder
6.26
19
Danny Musovski
Danny Musovski
Attacker61'
45
Peter Kingston
Peter Kingston Midfielder
6.35
90
Sebastian Gomez
Sebastian Gomez Midfielder
6.32
20
Kee-hee Kim
Kee-hee Kim
Defender90+1'
95
Osaze De Rosario
Osaze De Rosario Attacker
6.57
16
Álex Roldán
Álex Roldán
Defender77'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Kee-hee Kim → Sebastian Gomez
10th Substitution
Event
Obinna Nwobodo → Tah Anunga
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Alvas Powell → Ender Echenique
9th Substitution
89'
83'
Event
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Álex Roldán → Osaze De Rosario
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Albert Rusnák → Antino Lopez
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Peter Kingston
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Pavel Bucha → Bryan Ramírez
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Ayoub Jabbari → Tom Barlow
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Bryan Ramírez
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
61'
Event
Danny Musovski → Snyder Brunell
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Nouhou → Edson Carli
3rd Substitution
Event
Kévin Denkey → Kenji Mboma Dem
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Ryan Sailor
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Evander
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Alvas Powell is on, and Ender Echenique is off.
87
Attempt Attempt
Danny Musovski takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
87
Attempt Attempt
Alex Roldan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kalani Kossa Rienzi scores with a right-footed shot.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kalani Kossa Rienzi scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Albert Rusnak.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Gomez takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Danny Musovski takes a shot, but it is blocked.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Roldan comes on for Osaze De Rosario.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Albert Rusnak comes on for Antino Lopez.
77
Attempt Attempt
Miles Robinson attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
73
Update Update
Ayoub Jabbari comes on for Tom Barlow.
73
Update Update
Pavel Bucha is on, and Bryan Ramirez is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Osaze De Rosario takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Kalani Kossa Rienzi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Tom Barlow takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
61
Update Update
Nouhou Tolo comes on for Edson Carli.
61
Substitution Substitution
Danny Musovski is substituted off for Snyder Brunell.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Gomez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Update Update
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a header, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a header shot, but it is blocked.
58
Update Update
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey comes on for Kenji Mboma.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ender Echenique takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Ramirez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Paul Rothrock takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Edson Carli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Tom Barlow's left-footed shot is saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Brian Anunga takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Sailor receives a yellow card.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Attempt Attempt
Kenji Mboma takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Kenji Mboma takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Ramirez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
16
Update Update
Offside.
16
Update Update
Offside.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Miles Robinson's header is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ender Echenique takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Drew Fischer.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Cincinnati 1-1 Seattle Sounders. Structural assessment: Cincinnati exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.