Chelsea vs Leeds United preview

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Wembley Stadium
FA Cup
ChelseaCHE
1 0
Leeds UnitedLEE
Full Time
Semi Finals
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Chelsea clinched a narrow 1-0 home win against Leeds United, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime and preserving that advantage through a gritty defensive display. With 55% possession, Chelsea controlled much of the game but faced a resilient Leeds side deemed the stronger team pre-match. The Blues capitalized on their opportunities without needing second-half tweaks, as no red cards disrupted play. This outcome marks a significant structural deviation of 53.5% in Chelsea's favor, underscoring their ability to exceed expectations despite Leeds' perceived edge. Market views aligned with the result, reflecting Chelsea's clinical approach in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Chelsea's 1-0 win exhibited a significant 53.5% deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with pre-market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be determined due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No key events like red cards or adjustments altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the game's natural flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Port Vale Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Hull City Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: D
Derby County Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
46.49%
Draw
25.04%
Away Leeds United
28.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.19
27.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Leeds United
Power Score
21.19
27.82
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Leeds United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leeds United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leeds United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Chelsea Leeds United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Chelsea Leeds United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Leeds United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Chelsea
vs
Leeds United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Chelsea Leeds United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Chelsea 0.00
Leeds United 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Chelsea Leeds United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Chelsea 0.00
Leeds United 0.00
Chelsea
Leeds United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEE had peak pressure around 71'.
  • CHE started the game with stronger pressure.
CHE Pressure LEE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEE reached the top pressure at 71' (86.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
18 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
9
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
29
+7
Goal Difference
-7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T13:31:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Semi Finals
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Capacity
90000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jarred Gillett
Neil Davies
Thomas Kirk
Simon Long

Statistics

Possession
CHE
53%
LEE
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 5
30 Dangerous attacks 26
55 Possession 45
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 3
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
18 Successful Headers 21
12 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 0
6 Goal Attempts 7
9 Throwins 20
16 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
47 Ball Safe 51
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 3
72 Attacks 63
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
494 Passes 401
86 Successful Passes Percentage 81
50 Long Passes 45
15 Successful Long Passes 16
424 Successful Passes 324
7 Key Passes 5

Defensive

21 Tackles 20
59 Duels Won 58
3 Saves 1
10 Interceptions 6

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 21
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.81
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
6.51
4
Tosin Adarabioyo
Tosin Adarabioyo Defender
7.44
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
6.6
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
7.24
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
8.14
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.92
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
7.63
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
6.55
17
Andrey Santos
Andrey Santos
Midfielder66'
7.79
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho Midfielder
7.53
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer
Midfielder71'
6.7
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
7.38
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker90+8'
6.81
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Perri
Lucas Perri Goalkeeper
7.15
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
7.04
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
7.42
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach
Midfielder46'
6.86
24
James Justin
James Justin Defender
7
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon
Defender46'
6.69
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.4
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Midfielder
7.91
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
6.99
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
7.42
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha
Attacker74'
7.23
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.92
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Attacker
6.43
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff
Midfielder86'
7.16
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
7.15
29
Wilfried Gnonto
Wilfried Gnonto
Attacker74'
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Liam Delap → João Pedro
8th Substitution
90+8'
Event
Pedro Neto
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Jayden Bogle
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Sean Longstaff → Brenden Aaronson
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Lukas Nmecha
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Ethan Ampadu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Cole Palmer
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
76'
Event
Pascal Struijk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Wilfried Gnonto → Noah Okafor
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Lukas Nmecha → Ao Tanaka
6th Substitution
Event
Cole Palmer → Alejandro Garnacho
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Andrey Santos → Roméo Lavia
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Moisés Caicedo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
60'
46'
Event
Joe Rodon → James Justin
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Anton Stach → Jaka Bijol
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Enzo Fernández
Header / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

1
Update Update
Foul committed by Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea.
1
Update Update
Noah Okafor from Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jayden Bogle from Leeds United receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cole Palmer of Chelsea receives a yellow card.
76
Update Update
João Pedro wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Enzo Fernández commits a foul for Chelsea.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Wilfried Gnonto comes on for Noah Okafor.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Lukas Nmecha comes on for Ao Tanaka.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Cole Palmer comes on for Alejandro Garnacho.
73
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Moisés Caicedo concedes.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Struijk of Leeds United.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
69
Update Update
Ao Tanaka from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
65
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ao Tanaka from Leeds United has a right-footed shot from the center of the box that goes to the left.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Andrey Santos comes on for Roméo Lavia.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrey Santos of Chelsea.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United.
78
Update Update
Pedro Neto wins a free kick for Chelsea on the left wing.
75
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu wins a free kick for Leeds United on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Stach of Leeds United.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Enzo Fernández of Chelsea.
90
Update Update
Andrey Santos wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Wilfried Gnonto wins a free kick for Leeds United on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul by Pedro Neto on Chelsea.
62
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Anton Stach from Leeds United takes a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes close but misses to the right from a direct free kick.
90
Update Update
Jayden Bogle from Leeds United wins a free kick on the right wing.
64
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu wins a free kick for Leeds United in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Sean Longstaff of Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Robert Sánchez of Chelsea.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dominic Calvert-Lewin's header from the center of the box is saved by Robert Sánchez in the top center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Noah Okafor's cross.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrey Santos of Chelsea.
56
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Garnacho's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Enzo Fernández provided the assist.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 8 minutes of added time.
56
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Jayden Bogle concedes.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea.
64
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu wins a free kick for Leeds United in the defensive half.
49
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Jayden Bogle concedes.
47
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Rodon of Leeds United.
46
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Robert Sánchez concedes.
48
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Ethan Ampadu concedes.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Struijk of Leeds United.
50
Update Update
João Pedro wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
49
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Ao Tanaka concedes.
46
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Robert Sánchez concedes.
46
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Anton Stach from Leeds United has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Chelsea 1, Leeds United 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Joe Rodon comes on for James Justin.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Anton Stach comes on for Jaka Bijol.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pascal Struijk of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Chelsea leading 1-0 against Leeds United.
45
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson from Leeds United wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul by Tosin Adarabioyo for Chelsea.
45
Update Update
Foul by Pedro Neto against Chelsea.
45
Update Update
Noah Okafor of Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Roméo Lavia from Chelsea wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Anton Stach from Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
41
Update Update
Offside for Chelsea. Pedro Neto is caught offside.
42
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor from Leeds United misses the target with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, going too high. Pascal Struijk provided the assist.
45
Update Update
Dominic Calvert-Lewin from Leeds United wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Struijk of Leeds United.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Leeds United.
39
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Enzo Fernández wins a free kick for Chelsea on the left wing.
38
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after a concession by Marc Cucurella.
35
Update Update
Ethan Ampadu commits a foul for Leeds United.
34
Update Update
Offside for Chelsea. Marc Cucurella is caught offside.
30
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro from Chelsea misses a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, just to the right, after an assist from Roméo Lavia.
31
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Gabriel Gudmundsson concedes.
89
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea.
88
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Sean Longstaff of Leeds United.
35
Attempt Attempt
Noah Okafor's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
28
Update Update
Gabriel Gudmundsson of Leeds United wins a free kick on the left wing.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Leeds United.
28
Update Update
Foul by Pedro Neto against Chelsea.
29
Update Update
Enzo Fernández wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 1-0 against Leeds United. Enzo Fernández scores with a header from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Pedro Neto's cross.
83
Attempt Attempt
Anton Stach from Leeds United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. He was assisted by Lukas Nmecha.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andrey Santos from Chelsea.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pedro Neto from Chelsea receives a yellow card.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United receives a yellow card for a foul.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leeds United: Sean Longstaff comes on for Brenden Aaronson.
21
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro hits the left post with a left-footed shot from a difficult angle on the left, assisted by Enzo Fernández with a through ball.
20
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Alejandro Garnacho's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Enzo Fernández provided the assist with a headed pass.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Trevoh Chalobah of Chelsea.
17
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Neto's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. João Pedro provided the assist.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Lukas Nmecha of Leeds United.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrey Santos of Chelsea.
15
Corner Corner
Brenden Aaronson's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Robert Sánchez. The attempt was assisted by Dominic Calvert-Lewin with a through ball.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Marc Cucurella of Chelsea.
17
Update Update
Brenden Aaronson from Leeds United is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
15
Corner Corner
Leeds United win a corner after Robert Sánchez concedes.
19
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Pascal Struijk concedes.
10
Update Update
Enzo Fernández wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Jayden Bogle of Leeds United.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Ao Tanaka of Leeds United.
9
Update Update
João Pedro wins a free kick for Chelsea in the attacking half.
84
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Enzo Fernández's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Lucas Perri. João Pedro assisted with a headed pass.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ao Tanaka from Leeds United misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left from a direct free kick.
2
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Malo Gusto of Chelsea.

CONCLUSION

Chelsea's 1-0 triumph over Leeds United highlights their resilience, securing victory as under-the-radar performers against a stronger-rated opponent. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they managed possession effectively at 55% and shut out Leeds' threats. This significant deviation underscores Chelsea's tactical discipline and finishing prowess. With market alignment confirmed and efficiencies on track, the result boosts Chelsea's standing without reliance on xG insights or disruptive events. A solid performance that defied the stronger team label on Leeds.