Ceuta vs Málaga preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 16 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
CeutaCeuta
MálagaMLA
KICKOFF : Sat, 16 May - 2:15 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Ceuta welcome Málaga to Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube for a La Liga 2 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Málaga arrive as clear favorites, boasting a power score of 69.85 compared to Ceuta's 57.17, translating to a substantial 12.7-point advantage. The visitors sit comfortably in 4th place, well ahead of the hosts in 11th, and their form score of 29.28 dwarfs Ceuta's 17.83. Projections reflect this disparity, assigning Málaga a 53.4% likelihood of victory. With limited advanced metrics available, including no xG data for set pieces, the focus falls on Málaga's superior overall quality and recent momentum. Ceuta will lean on home support to disrupt Málaga's rhythm, but the guests' structural edge suggests control in possession and transitions. Expect a competitive encounter where Málaga's efficiency could prove decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Málaga possesses a 12.7-point power advantage with a score of 69.85 over Ceuta's 57.17.
  • Form: Málaga's form score stands at 29.28, superior to Ceuta's 17.83.
  • Squad: Málaga occupies 4th in the league table while Ceuta is in 11th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: No specific transition metrics provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available as add-on is disabled.
  • Market: Ceuta 22.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.7% (Δ+0%) | Málaga 53.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 68 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 D
SD Eibar Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
SD Eibar Rank: 70 W
Castellón Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 70 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
22.93%
Draw
23.67%
Away Málaga
53.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.17
69.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Málaga
Power Score
57.17
69.85
League Position
11
4
Global Rank
435
213

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Málaga

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Caparrós Guzmán
4 A. Caparrós Guzmán
C. Hernández Alarcón
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
Y. Bodiger
14 Y. Bodiger
D. González Cabanes
15 D. González Cabanes
M. Illescas Montaño
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Didi
5 Y. Didi
R. Díez Adán
19 R. Díez Adán
J. Zalazar Martínez
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
M. Fernández Sánchez
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. De La Fuente
18 K. De La Fuente
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
E. Galilea Azaceta
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
F. Montero Rubio
20 F. Montero Rubio
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
D. Brašanac
5 D. Brašanac
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Larrubia Romano
10 D. Larrubia Romano
E. Jauregi Escobar
17 E. Jauregi Escobar
A. Niño Heredia
21 A. Niño Heredia

General Information

Date & Time
May 16, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity
6500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.91
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Attacker
6.91
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.68
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Centre Forward
6.89
4
Albert Caparrós
Albert Caparrós Right Back
6.58
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Central Midfield
6.75
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Right Back
6.87
15
Diego González
Diego González Left Back
6.62
19
Rubén Díez
Rubén Díez Central Midfield
7.01
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Left Back
6.65
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Central Midfield
6.87

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.94
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.92
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7.12
17
Eneko Jauregi
Eneko Jauregi Attacker
6.7
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6.92
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.71
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.94
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Left Back
6.8
5
Darko Brasanac
Darko Brasanac Central Midfield
6.56
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.74
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Right Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Málaga's clear superiority in power ratings, league standing, and form positions them as heavy favorites against Ceuta. The 12.7-point edge underscores their structural dominance, likely leading to control in key phases. Ceuta's home venue offers a fighting chance, but overcoming Málaga's momentum requires flawless execution. Without advanced set piece or efficiency insights, the match hinges on basic quality gaps. Projections align with an away win at 53.4%, though a draw remains plausible at 23.7%. Ceuta must maximize transitions to threaten, but Málaga's class should prevail in this La Liga 2 encounter.