Ceuta vs Castellón preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
La Liga 2
CeutaCeuta
CastellónCastellón
KICKOFF :
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Ceuta host Castellón in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. Domestically, Ceuta sit 11th in the table while Castellón are 5th. Power ranking favours Castellón by 11.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón hold an 11.1-point power advantage with 68.19 over Ceuta's 57.05.
  • Form: Castellón's form score of 37.28 dwarfs Ceuta's 17.89.
  • Squad: Ceuta occupy 11th in La Liga 2 while Castellón sit 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with proxies used for Ceuta and Castellón.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable insights.
  • Market: Ceuta 20.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.6% (Δ+0%) | Castellón 56.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 D
SD Eibar Rank: 70 L
Burgos Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 63 L
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Burgos Rank: 67 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
Granada Rank: 65 W
Almería Rank: 71 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
20.57%
Draw
22.55%
Away Castellón
56.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.05
68.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Castellón
Power Score
57.05
68.19
League Position
11
5
Global Rank
435
253

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Castellón

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Jiménez Benítez
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
J. Mellot
22 J. Mellot
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen
R. Pompeu da Silva
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
B. Kibambe Cipenga
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
O. Camara
9 O. Camara
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity
6500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.89
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Centre Forward
6.89
25
Salvi
Salvi Attacker
6.6
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.69
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Central Midfield
6.87
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Central Midfield
6.75
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Right Back
6.68
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Central Midfield
6.91
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Left Back
6.64
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Left Back
6.39
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Right Back
6.85

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.86
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.65
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
7.05
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.9
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.27
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Left Back
6.77
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Right Back
6.93
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Right Back
6.74
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Left Back
7.15
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Central Midfield
6.95
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Central Midfield
6.8

CONCLUSION

Castellón arrive as clear frontrunners, their superior power rating, form, and league position painting a picture of control against a Ceuta outfit relying on home passion at Alfonso Murube. The 11.1-point edge and 37.28 form score suggest the visitors dictate tempo, potentially exploiting Ceuta's lower metrics. Yet football's unpredictability lingers—Ceuta's 11th-place grit could fuel an upset via solid defending. With sparse set-piece and efficiency intel, expect a tactical battle where Castellón's quality shines through for a likely away success in this La Liga 2 fixture.