Celta de Vigo vs Osasuna preview

Spain flag 2026/2027 La Liga, Spain
Abanca-Balaídos
La Liga
Celta de VigoCEL
1 2
OsasunaOSA
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
Iago Aspas  - 14'
Goal
|
Goal
Kike Barja  - 54'
Ante Budimir - 64' (P)
Marcos Alonso 51' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Celta de Vigo hosted Osasuna in a match that concluded with a 1-2 away victory. The home side led 1-0 at halftime but could not hold on after a red card altered the dynamics. Celta de Vigo held 51 percent possession yet produced just 0.12 expected goals while Osasuna generated 2.58 expected goals despite 49 percent possession. The stronger team on paper failed to convert their early advantage into a win as the visitors mounted a comeback in the second half. Osasuna benefited from a significant deviation in performance levels to secure the result. The game featured clear second half adjustments following the dismissal. This outcome remained consistent with the underlying expected goals figures throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Celta de Vigo 1-2 Osasuna. Osasuna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned consistently with the expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: The result proved aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Celta de Vigo recorded 0.12 xG while Osasuna posted 2.58 xG.
  • Event impact: Osasuna emerged as the winner in this encounter.
  • Red card distortion: A red card issued to Celta de Vigo distorted the second half proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Sesma Espinosa
M. Sesma Espinosa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
I. Rodríguez Portela
I. Rodríguez Portela
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Martínez Caballero
C. Martínez Caballero
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Cueto Amigo
G. Cueto Amigo
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Celta de Vigo C. Giráldez González
C. Giráldez González
VS
Osasuna L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.71
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: 82 D
Sevilla Rank: 78 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 D
Levante Rank: 77 L
Atlético de Madrid Rank: 88 W
Elche Rank: 76 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: 76 D
Getafe Rank: 78 L
Espanyol Rank: 77 L
Atlético de Madrid Rank: 88 L
Levante Rank: 77 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.03
78.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celta de Vigo
Osasuna
Power Score
81.03
78.3
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
64
90

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celta de Vigo — Opponent-weighted form score
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celta de Vigo Osasuna

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celta de Vigo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celta de Vigo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osasuna
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.06
31.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.73
12.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celta de Vigo -1.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Osasuna +1.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celta de Vigo
Osasuna
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celta de Vigo
vs
Osasuna
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celta de Vigo Osasuna
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
17%
39%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.02 vs -0.01
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celta de Vigo Osasuna
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
39%
17%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.01 vs -0.02
Celta de Vigo
Osasuna
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celta de Vigo
vs
Osasuna
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celta de Vigo Osasuna
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celta de Vigo 0.09
Osasuna 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celta de Vigo Osasuna
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celta de Vigo 0.04
Osasuna 0.02
Celta de Vigo
Osasuna
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OSA had peak pressure around 65'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure OSA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OSA reached the top pressure at 65' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celta de Vigo CEL Home
4 matches
Osasuna OSA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
7
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-28T00:06:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
S. Herrera Pirón
Spain
1 S. Herrera Pirón
A. Bretones Cruz
Spain
23 A. Bretones Cruz
J. Herrando Oroz
Substitution
Spain
5 J. Herrando Oroz
A. Catena Marugán
Spain
24 A. Catena Marugán
A. Osambela Larraya
Spain
29 A. Osambela Larraya
?. Arguibide Goñi
Spain
27 ?. Arguibide Goñi
E. Barja Afonso
Substitution
Spain
11 (C) E. Barja Afonso
L. Torró Marset
Spain
6 L. Torró Marset
J. Moncayola Tollar
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
J. Dubasin
Substitution
Belgium
21 J. Dubasin
R. García de Haro
Substitution
Spain
9 R. García de Haro

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 La Liga, Spain · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Abanca-Balaídos
Capacity
31800
Attendance
20645
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Miguel Sesma Espinosa
Ion Rodríguez Portela
Carlos Martínez Caballero
G. Cueto Amigo

Statistics

Possession
CEL
50%
OSA
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 51
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 63
0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Kicks 1
4 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 14
1 Injuries 0
11 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Successful Dribbles 8
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

Attacking

90 Attacks 113

Possession

62 Long Passes 66
561 Passes 525
484 Successful Passes 456
86 Successful Passes Percentage 87
2 Key Passes 8
29 Successful Long Passes 36
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

2 Saves 1
7 Tackles 14
9 Interceptions 9
39 Duels Won 38

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 4
7 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Starting XI ▼

13
Ionuț Radu
Ionuț Radu Goalkeeper
6.32
3
Marcos Alonso
Marcos Alonso Defender
6.21
20
Javi Rodríguez
Javi Rodríguez Defender
6.34
29
Yoel Lago
Yoel Lago Defender
6.21
6
Ilaix Moriba
Ilaix Moriba Midfielder
6.41
8
Miguel Román
Miguel Román Midfielder
6.97
17
Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda Midfielder
6.55
23
Hugo Álvarez
Hugo Álvarez
Midfielder65'
6.45
22
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Midfielder
6.44
5
Sergio Carreira
Sergio Carreira
Defender65'
7.1
10
Iago Aspas
Iago Aspas (C) Attacker
7.24
2
Carl Starfelt
Carl Starfelt
Defender52'
6.47
11
Pablo Durán
Pablo Durán Attacker
6.64
9
Ferran Jutglà
Ferran Jutglà
Attacker79'
6.63
19
Williot Swedberg
Williot Swedberg Attacker
6.76
39
Jones El-Abdellaoui
Jones El-Abdellaoui
Attacker65'
6.64
Referee : Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Starting XI ▼

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.52
5
Jorge Herrando
Jorge Herrando Defender
6.36
14
Rubén García
Rubén García
Midfielder58'
7.41
23
Abel Bretones
Abel Bretones Defender
6.85
24
Alejandro Catena
Alejandro Catena Defender
7.11
27
Iñigo Arguibide
Iñigo Arguibide Defender
6.51
29
Asier Osambela
Asier Osambela Defender
6.7
6
Lucas Torró
Lucas Torró Midfielder
6.9
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.35
8
Iker Muñoz
Iker Muñoz
Midfielder46'
6.67
11
Kike Barja
Kike Barja (C) Midfielder
7.61
16
Moi Gómez
Moi Gómez
Attacker74'
6.59
21
Jonathan Dubasin
Jonathan Dubasin Midfielder
6.71
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir
Attacker58'
7.45
9
Raúl García
Raúl García Attacker
7.61
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz
Midfielder82'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Ante Budimir
Goal disallowed
82'
Event
Aimar Oroz → Raúl García
10th Substitution
Event
Ferran Jutglà → Pablo Durán
9th Substitution
79'
74'
Event
Moi Gómez → Kike Barja 
8th Substitution
Event
Jones El-Abdellaoui → Williot Swedberg
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Hugo Álvarez → Javi Rueda
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Sergio Carreira → Javi Galán
7th Substitution
65'
64'
Event
Ante Budimir
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
58'
Event
Ante Budimir → Jonathan Dubasin
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Rubén García → Jorge Herrando
4th Substitution
54'
Event
Kike Barja 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Carl Starfelt → Iago Aspas 
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Marcos Alonso
Foul / 1st Redcard
51'
Event
Marcos Alonso
Card adjusted
48'
46'
Event
Iker Muñoz → Jon Moncayola
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Jon Moncayola
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Iago Aspas 
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR review confirms no goal. The match remains Celta Vigo 1, Osasuna 2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
GOAL OVERTURNED BY VAR: Ante Budimir scores for Osasuna, but the goal is disallowed following a VAR review.
90
Update Update
Ante Budimir from Osasuna wins a free kick on the left wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir's left-footed shot from close range is blocked. He was assisted by Rubén García.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Carl Starfelt of Celta Vigo.
90
Update Update
Moi Gómez from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Miguel Román from Celta Vigo commits a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Celta Vigo win a corner after Abel Bretones concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Carreira from Celta Vigo has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Iker Muñoz of Osasuna.
90
Corner Corner
Celta Vigo wins a corner after Iñigo Arguibide concedes.
90
Update Update
Carl Starfelt from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Ante Budimir from Osasuna commits a handball.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Carl Starfelt of Celta Vigo heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes to the right. The cross was provided by Hugo Álvarez.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 8 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Lucas Torró from Osasuna commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Ilaix Moriba of Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Corner Corner
Celta Vigo wins a corner after Abel Bretones concedes.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Abel Bretones.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a concession by Yoel Lago.
87
Attempt Attempt
Iker Muñoz's right-footed shot from outside the box for Osasuna is blocked. Lucas Torró provided the assist.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Aimar Oroz of Osasuna.
86
Update Update
Jones El Abdellaoui of Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Ante Budimir from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Yoel Lago of Celta Vigo.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Aimar Oroz comes on for Raúl García.
81
Update Update
Yoel Lago from Celta Vigo commits a foul.
81
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Moi Gómez of Osasuna.
80
Update Update
Miguel Román from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Ferran Jutglà comes on for Pablo Durán.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Jones El Abdellaoui from Celta Vigo has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the center of the goal by Sergio Herrera of Osasuna.
76
Corner Corner
Celta Vigo is awarded a corner after Iñigo Arguibide concedes it.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Moi Gómez comes on for Kike Barja.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Jones El Abdellaoui comes on for Williot Swedberg.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Hugo Álvarez comes on for Javi Rueda.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Sergio Carreira comes on for Javi Galán.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ante Budimir scores for Osasuna with a left-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The score is now Celta Vigo 1, Osasuna 2.
62
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Rubén García, who provided a cross.
62
Update Update
Javi Galán of Celta Vigo concedes a penalty for a handball in the penalty area.
61
Corner Corner
Osasuna wins a corner after Yoel Lago concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Osasuna wins a corner after Carl Starfelt concedes.
60
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Rubén García from Osasuna has a left-footed shot from very close range that goes just to the right. He was assisted by Kike Barja with a cross.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Rubén García comes on for Jorge Herrando.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Ante Budimir comes on for Jonathan Dubasin.
58
Update Update
Pablo Durán of Celta Vigo is caught offside.
57
Update Update
Abel Bretones of Osasuna is caught offside.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1 as Kike Barja scores for Osasuna with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Raúl García.
54
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. The attempt was assisted by Jonathan Dubasin's cross.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Abel Bretones of Osasuna.
53
Update Update
Javi Rueda from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
53
Update Update
Pablo Durán is caught offside for Celta Vigo.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Carl Starfelt comes on for Iago Aspas.
52
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lucas Torró from Osasuna heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes to the left. Kike Barja provided the assist with a cross after a set piece situation.
51
Red Card Red Card Important
Marcos Alonso from Celta Vigo receives a red card.
48
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Marcos Alonso of Celta Vigo.
48
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
48
Update Update
Marcos Alonso from Celta Vigo commits a foul.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo Durán of Celta Vigo.
47
Update Update
Jorge Herrando from Osasuna is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Iker Muñoz comes on for Jon Moncayola.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Celta Vigo 1, Osasuna 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Offside for Osasuna. Iñigo Arguibide is caught offside.
44
Attempt Attempt
Kike Barja from Osasuna misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Raúl García provided the assist.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Ionut Radu from Celta Vigo saves a right-footed shot from outside the box by Raúl García of Osasuna, which was aimed at the center of the goal.
39
Update Update
Kike Barja of Osasuna is caught offside.
37
Update Update
Asier Osambela from Osasuna commits a foul.
37
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Asier Osambela of Osasuna.
34
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
30
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
30
Update Update
Celta Vigo is called offside, with Pablo Durán being the player caught in the offside position.
29
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo.
28
Update Update
Kike Barja from Osasuna commits a foul.
28
Update Update
Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna receives a yellow card.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Jon Moncayola of Osasuna.
27
Update Update
Ilaix Moriba from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Catena of Osasuna.
26
Update Update
Pablo Durán from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
25
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Abel Bretones from Osasuna takes a left-footed shot from outside the box that is close but misses the top left corner.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Iñigo Arguibide of Osasuna.
22
Update Update
Javi Galán from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Raúl García from Osasuna has a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it is saved in the top center of the goal by Ionut Radu of Celta Vigo.
20
Update Update
Raúl García of Osasuna is caught offside.
18
Update Update
Asier Osambela from Osasuna commits a foul.
18
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celta Vigo leads 1-0 against Osasuna. Iago Aspas scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Miguel Román.
12
Corner Corner
Celta Vigo wins a corner after Iñigo Arguibide concedes.
7
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna commits a foul.
7
Update Update
Javi Galán from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Abel Bretones of Osasuna.
5
Update Update
Javi Rueda from Celta Vigo is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
3
Update Update
Iago Aspas from Celta Vigo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorge Herrando of Osasuna.
1
Update Update
First half begins.

CONCLUSION

Osasuna overturned an early deficit to claim a 1-2 victory away at Celta de Vigo. The visitors maximized their limited possession through superior chance creation that aligned with the final scoreline. A red card to the home side proved decisive in shifting momentum during the second half. Despite starting strongly Celta de Vigo struggled to maintain control once reduced to ten players. The expected goals data accurately reflected the quality disparity between the sides. Osasuna demonstrated effective adaptation to secure the points on the road. This result underscored how key events can reshape a contest even when possession remains balanced.