Celje vs Slovan Bratislava preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Z'dežele
Champions League
CeljeCEL
1 2
Slovan BratislavaSLV
Full Time: After Extra Time
Play-offs Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Svit Seslar - 34' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Andrej Kotnik 120' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Celje 1–2 Slovan Bratislava. The result saw Slovan Bratislava take the points. Slovan Bratislava showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Celje 3.6 – 1.1 Slovan Bratislava. Possession was 62%–38%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A 64.1 percent significant deviation occurred in favor of Slovan Bratislava.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Celje posted 3.64 expected goals while Slovan Bratislava recorded 1.12.
  • Event impact: The second leg produced a 1-2 scoreline that advanced Slovan Bratislava.
  • Red card distortion: One red card to Celje distorted second half proceedings and limited their output.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Sánchez Rojo
D. Sánchez Rojo
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Munuera Montero
J. Munuera Montero
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Celje V. de Carvalho Campelos
V. de Carvalho Campelos
VS
Slovan Bratislava Gnégnéri Yaya Touré
Gnégnéri Yaya Touré
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
1.2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slovan Bratislava Rank: 79 D
Ararat-Armenia Rank: W
Ararat-Armenia Rank: L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 53 D
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celje Rank: 72 D
Mjällby Rank: 67 W
Mjällby Rank: 70 W
FC Iberia 1999 Rank: D
FC Iberia 1999 Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celje
34.8%
Draw
29.27%
Away Slovan Bratislava
35.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Celje
+29.95%
Draw
-61.03%
Slovan Bratislava
+31.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72
79.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celje
Slovan Bratislava
Power Score
72
79.02
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
196
85

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Slovan Bratislava — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celje Slovan Bratislava

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Slovan Bratislava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slovan Bratislava
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.90
51.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.45
37.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celje -0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Slovan Bratislava +0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
Slovan Bratislava
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celje
vs
Slovan Bratislava
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celje Slovan Bratislava
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
33%
25%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.21 vs -0.28
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celje Slovan Bratislava
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
25%
33%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.28 vs -0.21
Celje
Slovan Bratislava
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celje
vs
Slovan Bratislava
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celje Slovan Bratislava
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celje 0.29
Slovan Bratislava 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celje Slovan Bratislava
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celje 0.04
Slovan Bratislava 0.01
Celje
Slovan Bratislava
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 24'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure SLV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 24' (74.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celje CEL Home
3 matches
Slovan Bratislava SLV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0.42
xG
1.61
1.61
xGA
0.42

Data last updated: 2026-08-27T00:10:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium
Stadion Z'dežele
Capacity
13059
Attendance
11500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Diego Sánchez Rojo
José Luis Munuera Montero

Statistics

Possession
CEL
60%
SLV
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 3
70 Dangerous attacks 51
62 Possession 38
5 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 15
5 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 72
1 Penalties 0
8 Goal Kicks 12
12 Goal Attempts 9
6 Substitutions 6
31 Throwins 19
2 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Assists 2
18 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Successful Dribbles 6
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

Attacking

154 Attacks 92
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

62 Long Passes 52
693 Passes 427
612 Successful Passes 348
88 Successful Passes Percentage 81
13 Key Passes 14
37 Successful Long Passes 20
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

6 Saves 5
12 Tackles 15
13 Interceptions 21
45 Duels Won 52

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 23
10 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan-Luk Leban
Zan-Luk Leban Goalkeeper
7.57
2
Pijus Širvys
Pijus Širvys Defender
6.98
20
Alpha Diounkou
Alpha Diounkou
Defender73'
6.52
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Defender
6.79
33
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender106'
6.53
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
7.31
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli Defender
6.6
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic Midfielder
7.71
99
Matej Poplatnik
Matej Poplatnik
Attacker106'
6.51
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
7.71
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel Midfielder
7.05
7
Benjamin Verbic
Benjamin Verbic
Midfielder73'
6.94
19
Mark Zabukovnik
Mark Zabukovnik (C) Midfielder
7.27
91
Yaya Dukuly
Yaya Dukuly Midfielder
7.32
77
Matic Ivansek
Matic Ivansek
Attacker80'
6.69
17
Andrej Kotnik
Andrej Kotnik Attacker
6.3
47
Armandas Kučys
Armandas Kučys
Attacker80'
6.03
Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

71
Dominik Takac
Dominik Takac Goalkeeper
7.2
12
Kenan Bajric
Kenan Bajric Defender
8.28
15
Svetozar Markovic
Svetozar Markovic Defender
6.6
28
César Blackman
César Blackman Defender
7.29
6
Kevin Wimmer
Kevin Wimmer
Defender120'
57
Sandro Cruz
Sandro Cruz Defender
7.12
3
Peter Pokorný
Peter Pokorný Midfielder
6.91
5
Rahim Ibrahim
Rahim Ibrahim Midfielder
6.75
20
Alen Mustafic
Alen Mustafic
Midfielder73'
6.62
11
Tigran Barseghyan
Tigran Barseghyan Midfielder
6.57
10
Nino Marcelli
Nino Marcelli
Midfielder73'
6.64
21
Suleiman Camara
Suleiman Camara Midfielder
6.56
29
Alexej Maros
Alexej Maros
Midfielder103'
7
70
Cristian Martínez
Cristian Martínez Midfielder
8.24
77
Danylo Ignatenko
Danylo Ignatenko
Midfielder106'
6.53
99
Andraz Sporar
Andraz Sporar (C) Attacker
7.32
13
Roman Cerepkai
Roman Cerepkai
Attacker81'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Svit Seslar
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
120+1'
Event
Vítor Campelos
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
120+1'
Event
Andrej Kotnik
Argument / 1st Redcard
120'
120'
Event
Kevin Wimmer → César Blackman
12th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Verbic
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
118'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Darko Hrka
10th Substitution
106'
Event
Matej Poplatnik → Mario Kvesic
11th Substitution
106'
106'
Event
Danylo Ignatenko → Cristian Martínez
9th Substitution
103'
Event
Alexej Maros → Suleiman Camara
8th Substitution
100'
Event
Cristian Martínez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
81'
Event
Roman Cerepkai → Andraz Sporar  
7th Substitution
Event
Matic Ivansek → Yaya Dukuly
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Armandas Kučys → Andrej Kotnik
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Alpha Diounkou → Pijus Širvys
1st Substitution
73'
Event
Benjamin Verbic → Papa Daniel
4th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Nino Marcelli  → Tigran Barseghyan 
2nd Substitution
73'
Event
Alen Mustafic → Rahim Ibrahim
3rd Substitution
Event
Milot Avdyli
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
54'
Event
Sandro Cruz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Svit Seslar
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
34'
Event
Yaya Dukuly
Penalty awarded
32'
18'
Event
Andraz Sporar  
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Pijus Širvys
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'

Match Commentary

120
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Koutris takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
120
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Verbic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
120
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Svit Seslar.
120
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Wimmer is substituted for Cesar Blackman.
118
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Benjamin Verbic.
117
Attempt Attempt
Svit Seslar takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
114
Update Update
Offside.
111
Attempt Attempt
Alexej Maros takes a right-footed shot but misses.
111
Update Update
Offside.
109
Attempt Attempt
Armandas Kucys takes a left-footed shot but misses.
109
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Verbic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
106
Attempt Attempt
Roman Cerepkai takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
106
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik replaces Mario Kvesic.
106
Update Update
Danylo Ignatenko is on, and Cristian Martínez is off.
106
Update Update
Leonardo Koutris comes on for Darko Hrka.
103
Update Update
Alexej Maros is on, and Suleiman Camara is off.
100
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cristian Martínez scores with a right-footed shot.
100
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cristian Martínez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
100
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cristian Martínez scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Nino Marcelli.
99
Attempt Attempt
Nino Marcelli takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
99
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
98
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
97
Attempt Attempt
Nino Marcelli's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nino Marcelli takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Armandas Kucys takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Kenan Bajric, but it's saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Attempt Attempt
Roman Cerepkai's header is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Armandas Kucys takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Artemijus Tutyskinas.
81
Update Update
On Roman Cerepkai, off Andraz Sporar.
80
Update Update
Matic Ivansek is on, and Yaya Dukuly is off.
80
Update Update
Armandas Kucys is on, and Andrej Kotnik is off.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Richard Diounkou Tecagne comes on for Pijus Sirvys.
73
Substitution Substitution
Benjamin Verbic is substituted for Papa Daniel.
73
Update Update
Nino Marcelli is on, and Tigran Barseghyan is off.
73
Update Update
Alen Mustafic replaces Ibrahim Rahim.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Darko Hrka takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Darko Hrka's header is blocked.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Bajric's header is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Yaya Dukuly takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Attempt Attempt
Suleiman Camara takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Tigran Barseghyan takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Update Update
Offside.
59
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Rahim takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Cruz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Milot Avdyli receives a yellow card.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Cruz receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Andraz Sporar has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Peter Pokorny attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tigran Barseghyan takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Attempt Attempt
Yaya Dukuly takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Update Update
Offside.
39
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kotnik takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Svit Seslar with a left-footed shot results in a goal.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Svit Seslar scores, making it 1-1.
32
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Yaya Dukuly.
29
Attempt Attempt
Milot Avdyli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kotnik's header is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Pijus Sirvys takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Andraz Sporar scores with a right-footed shot.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Andraz Sporar scores, making it 0-1, assisted by Kenan Bajric.
17
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kotnik takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Pijus Sirvys.
15
Attempt Attempt
Papa Daniel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Kotnik takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Attempt Attempt
Svit Seslar takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alejandro Jose Hernandez.

CONCLUSION

Slovan Bratislava progressed from the tie after securing a 1-2 win on the night. Despite Celje's clear expected goals advantage and higher possession the red card shifted momentum decisively. The away side maintained composure to add two goals after the interval. Aggregate calculations confirmed their advancement with a final combined score favoring them. Celje created numerous opportunities yet failed to overcome the numerical disadvantage. The match highlighted how key events can override underlying performance metrics in knockout formats. Slovan Bratislava's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive in the closing stages.