Celje vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Z'dežele Tue, 28 Jul - 6:15 PM
Champions League
CeljeCEL
2 – 2
Egnatia RrogozhinëEGN
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Tue, 28 Jul 6:15 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 5 - 5
Mario Kvesic - 34', 97' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Eneo Bitri - 2'
Darko Hrka - 21' (Own Goal)
Geralb Smajli - 114'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Celje 2–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The match ended in a draw. Celje showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celje showed a significant structural deviation of 76.4 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations across both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment was not possible due to unavailable expected goals metrics.
  • Market alignment: The 2-2 draw outcome proved inconsistent with pre-match market alignment.
  • xG expectations: No xG data existed to evaluate expectations or performance differentials.
  • Event impact: The second leg of the knockout tie with 5-5 aggregate shaped the balanced 2-2 result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards issued produced no distortion to overall match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Kooij
J. Kooij
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Fikkert
D. Fikkert
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
H. Kucukerbir
H. Kucukerbir
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Hensgens
R. Hensgens
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Celje V. de Carvalho Campelos
V. de Carvalho Campelos
VS
Egnatia Rrogozhinë N. Dede
N. Dede
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 49 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celje Rank: 73 D
Petrocub Rank: W
Petrocub Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celje
58.12%
Draw
23.6%
Away Egnatia Rrogozhinë
18.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
Celje
+53.25%
Draw
-67.12%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
+13.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.22
50.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celje
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Power Score
73.22
50.53
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
189
841

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celje Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.70
17.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.56
20.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celje +0.27 Efficiency Index
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë -0.27 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celje Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
5.00 3.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celje Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
3.00 5.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celje
vs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celje Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celje 0.07
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.06
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celje Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celje 0.04
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.06
Celje
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 15'.
  • EGN started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure EGN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 15' (54.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celje CEL Home
1 matches
Egnatia Rrogozhinë EGN Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-29T00:01:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 28, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 5 - 5
Stadium
Stadion Z'dežele
Capacity
13059
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Joey Kooij
Dyon Fikkert
Halis Murat Kucukerbir
Robin Hensgens

Statistics

Possession
CEL
56%
EGN
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Shots 2
96 Dangerous attacks 71
57 Possession 43
4 Corners 4
24 Free kicks 19
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
6 Substitutions 6
28 Throwins 23

Attacking

179 Attacks 139

Defensive

1 Saves 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 20

Lineup

Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan-Luk Leban
Zan-Luk Leban Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Pijus Širvys
Pijus Širvys Defender
6.26
20
Alpha Diounkou
Alpha Diounkou
Defender81'
6.25
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
6.04
33
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris Defender
6.05
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Midfielder
6.09
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic Midfielder
2
6.85
3
Damjan Vuklisevic
Damjan Vuklisevic
Defender105+3'
6.5
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
6.27
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli Midfielder
6.37
94
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Rudi Pozeg Vancas
Midfielder69'
6.37
13
Papa Daniel
Papa Daniel Midfielder
6.33
27
Ivan Calusic
Ivan Calusic
Defender89'
6.26
19
Mark Zabukovnik
Mark Zabukovnik (C) Midfielder
6.37
91
Yaya Dukuly
Yaya Dukuly
Midfielder69'
6.33
47
Armandas Kučys
Armandas Kučys Attacker
6.46
17
Andrej Kotnik
Andrej Kotnik
Attacker81'
6.46
Referee : Joey Kooij

Starting XI ▼

98
Mario Dajsinani
Mario Dajsinani Goalkeeper
5.88
19
Arbenit Xhemajli
Arbenit Xhemajli (C) Defender
6.05
22
Guillem Jaime
Guillem Jaime Defender
6.04
6
Albano Aleksi
Albano Aleksi
Midfielder116'
28
Eljon Sota
Eljon Sota Defender
6.05
55
Geralb Smajli
Geralb Smajli
Defender98'
6.69
33
Eneo Bitri
Eneo Bitri Defender
6.05
7
Fernando Medeiros
Fernando Medeiros Midfielder
6.23
10
Alessandro Albanese
Alessandro Albanese Midfielder
6.27
17
Altin Kryeziu
Altin Kryeziu Midfielder
6.27
99
Jurguens Montenegro
Jurguens Montenegro
Attacker98'
6.5
20
Karim Loukili
Karim Loukili Midfielder
6.37
24
Numan Ajetovikj
Numan Ajetovikj
Defender82'
6.26
29
Andrey Yago
Andrey Yago Midfielder
6.37
16
Edison Ndreca
Edison Ndreca
Defender60'
6.37
2
Daniel Adjessa
Daniel Adjessa Attacker
6.46
77
Ildi Gruda
Ildi Gruda
Midfielder60'
6.33

Events

2ND-HALF
116'
Event
Albano Aleksi  → Guillem Jaime
12th Substitution
Event
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
115'
114'
Event
Geralb Smajli
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Damjan Vuklisevic → Mario Kvesic
11th Substitution
105+3'
Event
Alpha Diounkou
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
100'
98'
Event
Jurguens Montenegro → Altin Kryeziu
9th Substitution
98'
Event
Geralb Smajli → Eljon Sota
10th Substitution
Event
Mario Kvesic
Penalty / 1st Penalty
97'
90+3'
Event
Guillem Jaime
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Ildi Gruda
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Calusic → Papa Daniel
8th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Numan Ajetovikj → Karim Loukili
7th Substitution
Event
Alpha Diounkou → Pijus Širvys
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Andrej Kotnik → Armandas Kučys
6th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Fernando Medeiros
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Yaya Dukuly
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Yaya Dukuly → Mark Zabukovnik
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Rudi Pozeg Vancas → Milot Avdyli
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Papa Daniel
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
68'
60'
Event
Ildi Gruda → Daniel Adjessa
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Edison Ndreca → Andrey Yago
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mario Kvesic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
34'
21'
Event
Darko Hrka
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
Event
Ivan Calusic
Scored
7'
6'
Event
Edison Ndreca
Off target
Event
Yaya Dukuly
Scored
5'
4'
Event
Arbenit Xhemajli
Scored
Event
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Scored
3'
2'
Event
Eneo Bitri
Off target
Event
Svit Seslar
Scored
1'

Match Commentary

125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Ivan Calusic 4-1
125
Update Update
Penalty Miss - Edison Ndreca 3-1
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Yaya Dukuly 3-1
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Arbenit Xhemajli 2-1
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Artemijus Tutyskinas 2-0
125
Update Update
Penalty Miss - Eneo Bitri 1-0
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Svit Seslar 1-0
120
Corner Corner
Corner
116
Update Update
On Albano Aleksi，Off Guillem Jaime
115
Update Update
On Albano Aleksi，Off Guillem Jaime
114
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yellow Card - Artemijus Tutyskinas
112
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Geralb Smajli 2-2
105
Corner Corner
Corner
105
Corner Corner
Corner
100
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Alpha Richard Diounkou Tecagne
98
Update Update
On Geralb Smajli，Off Eljon Sota
98
Update Update
On Jurguens Montenegro，Off Altin Kryeziu
97
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Penalty - Mario Kvesic 2-1
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Guillem Jaime
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Ildi Gruda
89
Update Update
On Ivan Calusic，Off Papa Daniel
84
Corner Corner
Corner
83
Update Update
On Andrej Kotnik，Off Armandas Kucys
82
Corner Corner
Corner
81
Update Update
On Andrej Kotnik，Off Armandas Kucys
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Fernando Medeiros Da Silva
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Yaya Dukuly
70
Update Update
On Yaya Dukuly，Off Mark Zabukovnik
70
Update Update
On Rudi Pozeg Vancas，Off Milot Avdyli
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Papa Daniel
67
Corner Corner
Corner
60
Update Update
On Ildi Gruda，Off Daniel Adjessa
60
Update Update
On Edison Ndreca，Off Andrey Yago
60
Update Update
On Ildi Gruda，Off Daniel Adjessa
51
Corner Corner
Corner
48
Corner Corner
Corner
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Mario Kvesic 1-1
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Own Goal - Darko Hrka 0-1
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Daniel Adjessa 0-1
14
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Joey Kooij

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Celje 2-2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Structural assessment: Celje exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.