Celje vs Ararat-Armenia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Stadion Z'dežele Tue, 11 Aug - 6:15 PM
Champions League
CeljeCEL
2 0
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
Full Time Tue, 11 Aug 6:15 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 2
Yaya Dukuly - 83'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Celje 2–0 Ararat-Armenia. The result saw Celje take the points. Celje showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Celje 2-0 Ararat-Armenia. Celje showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with the pre-match market projection.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated because of missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The second-half goals proved decisive in securing the aggregate win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Guida
M. Guida
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Peretti
G. Peretti
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Colarossi
V. Colarossi
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Maresca
F. Maresca
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Celje V. de Carvalho Campelos
V. de Carvalho Campelos
VS
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ararat-Armenia Rank: L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 51 D
Egnatia Rrogozhinë Rank: 49 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.8 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celje Rank: 74 W
Shamrock Rovers Rank: L
Shamrock Rovers Rank: W
Riga Rank: L
Riga Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celje
97.32%
Draw
1.91%
Away Ararat-Armenia
0.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.11
34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celje
Ararat-Armenia
Power Score
31.11
34
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celje — Opponent-weighted form score
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celje Ararat-Armenia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celje

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.20
13.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.30
28.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celje — Efficiency Index
vs
Ararat-Armenia — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
Ararat-Armenia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celje ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ararat-Armenia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celje Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celje Ararat-Armenia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Celje
Ararat-Armenia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Celje
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Celje Ararat-Armenia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Celje 0.12
Ararat-Armenia 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Celje Ararat-Armenia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Celje 0.00
Ararat-Armenia 0.02
Celje
Ararat-Armenia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 77'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
CEL Pressure ARAR2 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 77' (83.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celje CEL Home
2 matches
Ararat-Armenia ARAR2 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
1
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-12T00:03:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 11, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 2
Stadium
Stadion Z'dežele
Capacity
13059
Attendance
5060
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida
Giorgio Peretti
Valerio Colarossi
Fabio Maresca

Statistics

Possession
CEL
57%
ARAR2
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Shots 1
82 Dangerous attacks 53
50 Possession 50
12 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 19
5 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
15 Throwins 17

Attacking

127 Attacks 85

Defensive

4 Saves 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

1
Zan-Luk Leban
Zan-Luk Leban Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Pijus Širvys
Pijus Širvys Defender
6.5
91
Yaya Dukuly
Yaya Dukuly
Midfielder69'
6.69
6
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Artemijus Tutyškinas Defender
6.49
33
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris Defender
6.49
7
Benjamin Verbic
Benjamin Verbic
Midfielder46'
6.65
4
Darko Hrka
Darko Hrka Midfielder
6.5
99
Matej Poplatnik
Matej Poplatnik
Attacker69'
6.5
8
Mario Kvesic
Mario Kvesic Midfielder
6.5
10
Svit Seslar
Svit Seslar Midfielder
6.5
27
Ivan Calusic
Ivan Calusic
Defender90+1'
11
Milot Avdyli
Milot Avdyli Midfielder
6.56
19
Mark Zabukovnik
Mark Zabukovnik (C) Midfielder
6.45
77
Matic Ivansek
Matic Ivansek Midfielder
6.5
47
Armandas Kučys
Armandas Kučys Attacker
6.5
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.49
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier
Midfielder73'
6.27
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
6.05
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.05
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson Defender
6.05
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis Defender
6.05
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui Midfielder
6.27
25
Alioune Ndour
Alioune Ndour
Attacker89'
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C) Midfielder
6.27
8
Balanta Jr.
Balanta Jr.
Midfielder89'
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera Midfielder
6.45
70
Bernardo Dias
Bernardo Dias
Midfielder55'
6.27
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.5
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder73'
6.27
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Calusic → Svit Seslar
9th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Alioune Ndour → Zidane Banjaqui
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Balanta Jr. → Karen Muradyan
8th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Verbic
Unsporting behaviour / 7th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 8th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Benjamin Verbic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
85'
Event
Yaya Dukuly
Field Goal / 1st Goal
83'
Event
Mark Zabukovnik
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
73'
Event
Maxence Carlier → Hugo Oliveira
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Carlos França → Artur Serobyan
6th Substitution
Event
Yaya Dukuly → Pijus Širvys
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Matej Poplatnik → Darko Hrka
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Milot Avdyli
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Artemijus Tutyškinas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
55'
Event
Bernardo Dias → Alwyn Tera
2nd Substitution
Event
Benjamin Verbic → Leonardo Koutris
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Leonardo Koutris
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
19'
Event
Hugo Oliveira
Unsporting behaviour / 1st Yellowcard
19'
Event
Alwyn Tera
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 2-0.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Calusic comes on for Svit Seslar.
89
Substitution Substitution
Juan Balanta is substituted for Karen Muradyan.
88
Update Update
Alioune Ndour comes on for Zidane Banjaqui.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Benjamin Verbic.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Benjamin Verbic scores, making it 2-0.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Yaya Dukuly scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Milot Avdyli.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Yaya Dukuly scores to make it 1-0.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Maxence Carlier is on, and Hugo Oliveira is off.
73
Update Update
Carlos Franca is on, and Artur Serobyan is off.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Update Update
Matej Poplatnik comes on for Darko Hrka.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Milot Avdyli receives a yellow card.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Artemijus Tutyskinas.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Update Update
Bernardo Oliveira Dias is on, and Alwyn Tera is off.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Benjamin Verbic comes on for Leonardo Koutris.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Leonardo Koutris.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Leonardo Koutris.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Alwyn Tera.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hugo Oliveira receives a yellow card.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marco Guida.

CONCLUSION

Celje completed a 2-0 home win to overturn the stronger team label and advance on aggregate. The clean sheet and second-half scoring burst delivered a controlled performance that matched the market projection. With possession evenly split and no dismissals the contest stayed balanced until the decisive strikes. Ararat-Armenia created limited threat after the interval and could not force extra time. The result highlights Celje's ability to perform under aggregate pressure despite entering as underdogs on paper. Overall the tie concluded without major disruptions and produced a clear winner on the night.