Castellón vs Almería preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia
La Liga 2
CastellónCastellón
AlmeríaALM
KICKOFF :
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Castellón host Almería in La Liga 2 (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) at Nou Estadi Castalia. Domestically, Castellón sit 6th in the table while Almería are 3th. Power ranking favours Castellón by 2.4 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón hold a +2.4 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Castellón sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Castellón show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Castellón have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Castellón carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Castellón hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: Castellón 51.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+0%) | Almería 23.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: L
Málaga Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Sporting Gijón Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: L
Burgos Rank: D
Mirandés Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
51.76%
Draw
24.43%
Away Almería
23.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.82
29.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Almería
Power Score
31.82
29.45
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Almería

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
10 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
18
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-05T00:00:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
S. Ruiz Rodríguez
17 S. Ruiz Rodríguez
A. Jiménez Benítez
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
A. Sienra
4 A. Sienra
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
D. Hernández Barriuso
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
P. Santiago López
18 P. Santiago López
O. Camara
9 O. Camara
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.85
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Midfielder
7.35
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.81
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Attacker
6.69
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.91
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Left Back
6.78
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra Left Back
6.66
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Right Back
7.16
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Central Midfield
6.84
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Central Midfield
6.93
17
Salva Ruiz
Salva Ruiz Right Back
6.62

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.03
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.87
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.86
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Right Wing
6.85
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
7.16
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.83
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.54
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
6.55
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Defensive Midfield
6.88
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.86

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Castellón holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Castellón a 2.4-point edge. External projection is Castellón 51.8%, draw 24.4%, and Almería 23.8%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.