Caernarfon Town vs Levadia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
The Oval Thu, 9 Jul - 5:30 PM
Europa Conference League
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
0 5
Levadia Levadia
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 5:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Rasmus Peetson - 15'
João Pedro - 41'
Mark Oliver Roosnupp - 45+1'
Mihkel Ainsalu - 47'
Enock Otoo - 78'
Ben Nash 62' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Caernarfon Town hosted Levadia in the first leg of their tie and suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat. Levadia led 3-0 at halftime before adding two more goals after the break. Caernarfon Town held 44 percent possession against Levadia's 56 percent yet could not prevent the visitors from dominating. A red card to the home side further tilted proceedings in the second half. Despite being labeled the stronger team beforehand Levadia delivered a clinical performance that produced the final margin. The result leaves Caernarfon Town facing a substantial deficit ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Caernarfon Town 0-5 Levadia. Levadia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures were recorded for either Caernarfon Town or Levadia.
  • Event impact: A red card issued to Caernarfon Town shaped second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was listed among the second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Švėgžda
D. Švėgžda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Stepanovas
A. Stepanovas
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Kikutis
B. Kikutis
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Bartuškevičius
K. Bartuškevičius
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Caernarfon Town R. Davies
R. Davies
VS
Levadia V. Zahovaiko
V. Zahovaiko
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Caernarfon Town
22.01%
Draw
24.6%
Away Levadia
53.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Caernarfon Town
+19.26%
Draw
+21%
Levadia
-40.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Caernarfon Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Levadia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Caernarfon Town Levadia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Caernarfon Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Levadia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Caernarfon Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levadia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.55
32.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.05
14.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Caernarfon Town — Efficiency Index
vs
Levadia — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Caernarfon Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levadia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Caernarfon Town
vs
Levadia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Caernarfon Town 0.08
Levadia 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Caernarfon Town Levadia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Caernarfon Town 0.08
Levadia 0.00
Caernarfon Town
Levadia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Caernarfon Town had peak pressure around 57'.
  • Levadia started the game with stronger pressure.
Caernarfon Town Pressure Levadia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Caernarfon Town reached the top pressure at 57' (62.48).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town Home
0 matches
Levadia Levadia Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:55:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
C. Roberts
Wales
1 C. Roberts
C. Marriott
England
23 C. Marriott
B. Nash
Wales
16 B. Nash
J. Piggott
England
4 J. Piggott
M. Jones
Wales
3 M. Jones
D. Gosset
Substitution
Wales
8 (C) D. Gosset
N. Edwards
Wales
14 N. Edwards
A. Cieślewicz
Substitution
Poland
11 A. Cieślewicz
P. Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
7 P. Mendes
S. Bradley
Substitution
Wales
19 S. Bradley
Z. Clarke
Substitution
England
9 Z. Clarke
K. Vallner
Estonia
99 K. Vallner
J. Saliste
Estonia
29 J. Saliste
T. Tammik
Estonia
4 T. Tammik
A. Nwankwo
Nigeria
20 A. Nwankwo
F. Liivak
Substitution
Estonia
23 F. Liivak
M. Roosnupp
Substitution
Estonia
5 M. Roosnupp
R. Peetson
Estonia
6 (C) R. Peetson
J. de Moura Siembarski
Substitution
Brazil
36 J. de Moura Siembarski
M. Ainsalu
Estonia
11 M. Ainsalu
B. Tambedou
Substitution
Gambia
9 B. Tambedou
M. Skvortsov
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Skvortsov

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
The Oval
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dovydas Švėgžda
Aleksandras Stepanovas
Benas Kikutis
Kęstutis Bartuškevičius

Statistics

Possession
Caernarfon Town
45%
Levadia
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 5
2 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 59
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 73
0 Penalties 1
3 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 15
0 Assists 3
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

76 Attacks 75

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Dovydas Švėgžda

Starting XI ▼

1
Connor Roberts
Connor Roberts Goalkeeper
5.3
3
Mathew Jones
Mathew Jones Defender
5.51
4
Jordan Piggott
Jordan Piggott Defender
5.56
16
Ben Nash
Ben Nash Defender
5.73
23
Chris Marriott
Chris Marriott Defender
5.56
7
Paulo Mendes
Paulo Mendes Midfielder
6.09
25
Offrande Zanzala
Offrande Zanzala
Attacker60'
8
Danny Gossett
Danny Gossett (C) Midfielder
5.99
10
Darren Thomas
Darren Thomas
Midfielder83'
11
Adrian Cieslewicz
Adrian Cieslewicz Midfielder
6.08
29
Osian Evans
Osian Evans
Attacker60'
14
Noah Edwards
Noah Edwards Midfielder
5.99
19
Sion Bradley
Sion Bradley Midfielder
6.09
2
Morgan Owen
Morgan Owen
Defender72'
9
Zack Clarke
Zack Clarke Attacker
6.3
6
Iwan Lewis
Iwan Lewis
Midfielder83'
Referee : Dovydas Švėgžda

Starting XI ▼

99
Karl Andre Vallner
Karl Andre Vallner Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Tanel Tammik
Tanel Tammik Defender
6.5
20
A. Nwankwo
A. Nwankwo Defender
6.5
23
Frank Liivak
Frank Liivak Defender
6.5
71
Kauã Davi
Kauã Davi
Defender76'
6.5
29
Joseph Saliste
Joseph Saliste Defender
6.5
5
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Mark Oliver Roosnupp Midfielder
6.69
33
Enock Otoo
Enock Otoo
Midfielder76'
6.69
6
Rasmus Peetson
Rasmus Peetson (C) Midfielder
6.69
11
Mihkel Ainsalu
Mihkel Ainsalu Midfielder
7.45
21
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Maksimilian Skvortsov Midfielder
6.24
17
Robert Kirss
Robert Kirss
Attacker83'
6.5
36
João Pedro
João Pedro Midfielder
6.69
18
Alexandre
Alexandre
Midfielder83'
6.5
9
Bubacarr Tambedou
Bubacarr Tambedou Attacker
6.59
10
Wendell
Wendell
Attacker76'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Wendell
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Noah Edwards
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Iwan Lewis → Zack Clarke
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Darren Thomas → Danny Gossett
10th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Alexandre → João Pedro
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Robert Kirss → Maksimilian Skvortsov
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Enock Otoo
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
76'
Event
Kauã Davi → Frank Liivak
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Enock Otoo → Mark Oliver Roosnupp
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Wendell → Bubacarr Tambedou
6th Substitution
Event
Morgan Owen → Sion Bradley
3rd Substitution
72'
64'
Event
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Off target
Event
Ben Nash
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
62'
Event
Osian Evans → Adrian Cieslewicz
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Offrande Zanzala → Paulo Mendes
2nd Substitution
60'
47'
Event
Mihkel Ainsalu
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
41'
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ben Nash
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
24'
20'
Event
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Rasmus Peetson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wendell receives a yellow card.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Edwards receives a yellow card.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Enock Otoo scores, making it 5-0, assisted by Mihkel Ainsalu.
76
Substitution Substitution
Enock Otoo is substituted off for Mark Oliver Roosnupp.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Enock Otoo scores, making it 5-0, assisted by Mihkel Ainsalu.
76
Update Update
Wendell replaces Bubacarr Tambedou.
72
Substitution Substitution
Morgan Owen is substituted for Sion Bradley.
64
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Maksimilian Skvortsov.
63
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
61
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
60
Update Update
Osian Evans comes on for Adrian Cieslewicz.
60
Update Update
On Offrande Zanzala, off Paulo Mendes.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-4.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mark Oliver Roosnupp scores, making it 0-3.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joao Pedro scores, making it 0-2.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Nash receives a yellow card.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Dovydas Svegzda.

CONCLUSION

Levadia produced a commanding display that yielded five unanswered goals and a 0-3 halftime advantage. The visitors capitalized on their opportunities while Caernarfon Town struggled to create meaningful threats even before the red card reduced their numbers. Possession favored Levadia yet the decisive factor remained clinical finishing combined with defensive resilience. Caernarfon Town now confronts a difficult task in the second leg after this result. Levadia will look to maintain composure and protect their aggregate lead when the teams meet again.