Burgos vs Almería preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
La Liga 2
BurgosBUR
AlmeríaALM
KICKOFF :
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Burgos host Almería in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. Domestically, Burgos sit 7th in the table while Almería are 2th. Power ranking favours Almería by 3.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería possess a structural edge with a 71.2 power score and second-place standing over Burgos' 67.6 and seventh position.
  • Form: Almería lead in form with a 27.67 score compared to Burgos' 22.94.
  • Squad: Squad quality favors Almería, reflected in their higher power rating and loftier league position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG variables not available as add-on disabled.
  • Market: Burgos 34.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.6% (Δ+0%) | Almería 37.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 D
Castellón Rank: 66 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Albacete Rank: 66 W
Ceuta Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Leganés Rank: 64 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burgos
34.07%
Draw
28.61%
Away Almería
37.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.6
71.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burgos
Almería
Power Score
67.6
71.2
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
263
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burgos Almería

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burgos BUR Home
5 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
5
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:07:39+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Capacity
12194
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
6.99
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
6.8
14
David González
David González Midfielder
6.9
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
6.89
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
7.15
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Left Back
6.97
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Right Back
6.74
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Central Midfield
6.97
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Central Midfield
6.96
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Left Back
6.89
15
Aitor Buñuel
Aitor Buñuel Right Back
6.58

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.99
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.85
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.73
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.59
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
6.52
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Defensive Midfield
6.87
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.83
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Right Wing
6.85
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
7.15
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.85

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Almería holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Almería a 3.6-point edge. External projection is Burgos 35.4%, draw 29%, and Almería 35.7%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.