Bragantino vs Grêmio preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques
Serie A
BragantinoBRA
1 0
GrêmioGRE
Full Time
Round 24 Regular Season
Gustavo Marques - 90+5'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Bragantino claimed a 1-0 win against Gremio after a goalless first half. The match saw the home team hold 54 percent possession and accumulate 2.21 expected goals compared to 0.7 for the away side. This substantial differential highlighted Bragantino's control despite the low-scoring nature of the encounter. Gremio managed limited chances throughout and could not find an equalizer. The second half proved pivotal as the only goal of the game arrived to separate the sides. With no red cards shown to either team, the contest remained eleven versus eleven until the end. Bragantino's stronger underlying performance translated into the three points on offer.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Bragantino 1-0 Grêmio. Bragantino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the stronger team's performance.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with the expected goals differential of 1.51.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: Bragantino generated 2.21 expected goals while Gremio managed 0.7.
  • Event impact: The lone goal in the second half determined the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion affected the game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Fernandes de Lima
F. Fernandes de Lima
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
G. Dias Camilo
G. Dias Camilo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Costa de Oliveira
F. Costa de Oliveira
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Tarcisio Nascimento Matos
Tarcisio Nascimento Matos
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Bragantino V. Carmo Mancini
V. Carmo Mancini
VS
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletico PR Rank: 66 D
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 66 D
Coritiba Rank: 59 D
Fluminense Rank: 68 D
Internacional Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 65 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
Botafogo Rank: 65 D
Fluminense Rank: 68 D
Mirassol Rank: 63 L
Corinthians Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.13
61.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bragantino
Grêmio
Power Score
63.13
61.2
League Position
7
15
Global Rank
445
503

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bragantino — Opponent-weighted form score
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bragantino Grêmio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bragantino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grêmio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bragantino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grêmio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
57.69
34.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.13
57.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bragantino +1.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Grêmio -1.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bragantino
Grêmio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bragantino
vs
Grêmio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bragantino Grêmio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
22%
29%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.48 vs -0.20
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bragantino Grêmio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
29%
22%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.20 vs -0.48
Bragantino
Grêmio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bragantino
vs
Grêmio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bragantino Grêmio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bragantino 0.33
Grêmio 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bragantino Grêmio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bragantino 0.00
Grêmio 0.01
Bragantino
Grêmio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRE had peak pressure around 35'.
  • BRA started the game with stronger pressure.
BRA Pressure GRE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRE reached the top pressure at 35' (88.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bragantino BRA Home
5 matches
Grêmio GRE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:19:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques
Capacity
15010
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Guilherme Dias Camilo
Felipe Alan Costa de Oliveira
Tarcisio Nascimento Matos

Statistics

Possession
BRA
57%
GRE
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 8
83 Dangerous attacks 34
54 Possession 46
8 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 17
5 Substitutions 4
23 Throwins 10
14 Successful Headers 9
1 Assists 0
20 Dribble Attempts 8
14 Successful Dribbles 1
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13

Attacking

117 Attacks 71
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

41 Long Passes 65
460 Passes 408
412 Successful Passes 341
90 Successful Passes Percentage 84
28 Successful Long Passes 24
68 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

1 Saves 2
14 Tackles 15
9 Interceptions 6
51 Duels Won 34

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 18
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Starting XI ▼

18
Tiago Volpi
Tiago Volpi Goalkeeper
6.88
14
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique Defender
7.67
16
Gustavo Marques
Gustavo Marques (C) Defender
8.25
23
Agustín Sant'Anna
Agustín Sant'Anna Defender
7.65
29
Juninho Capixaba
Juninho Capixaba Defender
7.83
7
Eric Ramires
Eric Ramires Midfielder
6.94
5
Fabinho
Fabinho
Midfielder64'
7.02
17
Vinicinho
Vinicinho Midfielder
7.67
41
Yuri
Yuri
Midfielder86'
20
Rodriguinho
Rodriguinho Midfielder
7.35
22
Gustavo Neves
Gustavo Neves
Midfielder86'
6.88
21
Lucas Barbosa
Lucas Barbosa Midfielder
6.97
8
Eduardo Sasha
Eduardo Sasha
Attacker72'
6.68
32
José Herrera
José Herrera Midfielder
6.85
30
Henry Mosquera
Henry Mosquera
Attacker64'
6.83
9
Isidro Pitta
Isidro Pitta Attacker
6.29
Referee : Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Starting XI ▼

1
Weverton
Weverton Goalkeeper
6.4
3
Wagner Leonardo
Wagner Leonardo Defender
7.13
23
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.41
27
Diego Caito
Diego Caito Defender
6.85
82
Wallace
Wallace Defender
7.73
8
Erick Noriega
Erick Noriega Midfielder
7.15
15
Danilo Barbosa
Danilo Barbosa
Midfielder90+2'
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Midfielder
6.84
77
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral
Attacker64'
6.56
10
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Midfielder
7.34
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius
Attacker88'
20
Mathías Villasanti
Mathías Villasanti (C) Midfielder
6.37
21
Tetê
Tetê Midfielder
6.59
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón
Attacker46'
6.55
22
Martin Braithwaite
Martin Braithwaite Attacker
6.47

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gustavo Marques
Header / 1st Goal
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Danilo Barbosa → Erick Noriega
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Carlos Vinícius → Filip Krovinovic
8th Substitution
Event
Yuri → Vinicinho
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Gustavo Neves → Rodriguinho
7th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Wallace
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Weverton
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Eduardo Sasha → Lucas Barbosa
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Agustín Sant'Anna 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Fabinho → Eric Ramires
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Henry Mosquera → José Herrera
4th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Jovane Cabral → Francis Amuzu
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Cristian Pavón → Tetê
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Erick Noriega
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Juninho Capixaba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Roughing / 6th Yellowcard
25'
Event
José Herrera
Goal disallowed
15'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Wagner Leonardo attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Marques Gustavo Head Shot Goal
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marques Gustavo scores to make it 1-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Alves takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Danilo Barbosa da Silva comes on for Erick Noriega.
90
Attempt Attempt
Agustin SantAnna's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Eduardo Sasha takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Capixaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Update Update
Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais is on, and Filip Krovinovic is off.
88
Update Update
Yuri Alves comes on for Vinicius Mendonca Pereira.
86
Update Update
Gustavo Gustavinho is coming on for Rodrigo Huendra Almeida.
86
Attempt Attempt
Agustin SantAnna takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Eduardo Sasha with his right foot, but he misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Capixaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais is on, and Filip Krovinovic is off.
76
Update Update
Yuri Alves comes on for Vinicius Mendonca Pereira.
76
Update Update
Gustavo Gustavinho is on, and Rodrigo Huendra Almeida is off.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wallace receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Huendra Almeida takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Diego Caito takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Erick Noriega's header is saved.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Agustin SantAnna.
72
Attempt Attempt
Filip Krovinovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Martin Braithwaite takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Villasanti takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
68
Update Update
Offside.
67
Attempt Attempt
Isidro Pitta takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Offside.
66
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Henrique Barbosa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Henry Mosquera is on, and Jose Herrera is off.
64
Update Update
Henry Mosquera is on, and Jose Herrera is off.
64
Update Update
Fabio Silva de Freitas comes on for Eric Dos Santos Rodrigues.
63
Update Update
Jovane Cabral is on, and Francis Amuzu is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Diego Caito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Diego Caito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jose Herrera takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
47
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Capixaba takes a left-footed shot but misses.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Cristian Pavon comes on for Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Herrera takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 0-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Herrera takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Francis Amuzu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jose Herrera takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Francis Amuzu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Erick Noriega.
45
Update Update
Offside.
42
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Henrique Ribeiro Goncalves takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Update Update
Rodrigo Huendra Almeida's header is blocked.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Wallace Head Shot Missed
34
Attempt Attempt
Filip Krovinovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Erick Noriega takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Wallace Head Shot Missed
30
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Juninho Capixaba.
25
Attempt Attempt
Diego Caito takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Vinicius Mendonca Pereira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Eric Dos Santos Rodrigues takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Huendra Almeida takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Capixaba attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Jose Herrera.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jose Herrera scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Lucas Henrique Barbosa.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
9
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Huendra Almeida takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Update Update
Offside.
3
Attempt Attempt
Isidro Pitta takes a header but misses the shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Felipe Fernandes de Lima.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Bragantino 1-0 Grêmio. Structural assessment: Bragantino exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.