Botafogo vs Santos preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos
Serie A
BotafogoBOT
2 1
SantosSTS
Full Time
Round 19 Regular Season
Lucas Emanuel - 41'
Kadir Barría - 90+5'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Brazilian league encounter, Botafogo emerged victorious with a 2-1 scoreline against Santos. The home team established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at the halftime break. Although Santos controlled more of the ball with 52 percent possession and posted a superior expected goals figure of 1.28 against Botafogo's 1.01, the result went in favor of the stronger side. This represented a notable deviation from the underlying metrics. No dismissals occurred throughout the ninety minutes, allowing both teams to maintain full complements on the field. The efficiency shift remained consistent with pre-match projections for the participants. Botafogo's triumph underscored their resilience despite the xG differential of negative 0.27.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Botafogo 2-1 Santos. Botafogo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with the xG values as Santos had higher expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The result showed true market alignment with the winner.
  • xG expectations: Botafogo posted 1.01 xG while Santos recorded 1.28 xG in the encounter.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards influenced the flow of the game.
  • Red card distortion: The absence of red cards meant no distortion occurred in the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Pereira de Lima
R. Pereira de Lima
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Aguiar da Costa
R. Aguiar da Costa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Cavalcanti de Santana
K. Cavalcanti de Santana
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
W. Silva Souza
W. Silva Souza
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
VS
Santos A. Stival
A. Stival
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bahia Rank: 61 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Corinthians Rank: 66 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 63 D
Remo Rank: 57 L
Internacional Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Rank: 61 W
Grêmio Rank: 63 L
Coritiba Rank: 59 L
Bragantino Rank: 64 W
Palmeiras Rank: 76 D
Bahia Rank: 61 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.71
62.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Santos
Power Score
66.71
62.55
League Position
12
15
Global Rank
325
450

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Santos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Santos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Botafogo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Santos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Botafogo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Santos
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.35
28.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.61
34.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Botafogo +0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Santos -0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Botafogo
Santos
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Botafogo
vs
Santos
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Botafogo Santos
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
28%
15%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.28 vs -0.19
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Botafogo Santos
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
15%
28%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.19 vs -0.28
Botafogo
Santos
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Botafogo
vs
Santos
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Botafogo Santos
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Botafogo 0.39
Santos 0.48
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Botafogo Santos
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Botafogo 0.03
Santos 0.03
Botafogo
Santos
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STS had peak pressure around 57'.
  • STS started the game with stronger pressure.
BOT Pressure STS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STS reached the top pressure at 57' (91.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
2 matches
Santos STS Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:04:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 19 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity
46831
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima
Renan Aguiar da Costa
Karla Renata Cavalcanti de Santana
Wagner Francisco Silva Souza

Statistics

Possession
BOT
49%
STS
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 39
48 Possession 52
5 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

71 Ball Safe 70
10 Goal Kicks 10
11 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 19
0 Hit Woodwork 2
7 Successful Headers 17
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
18 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Successful Dribbles 6
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

Attacking

114 Attacks 94
2 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

54 Long Passes 44
377 Passes 418
304 Successful Passes 332
81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
12 Key Passes 14
16 Successful Long Passes 24
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

8 Saves 5
23 Tackles 25
16 Interceptions 12
54 Duels Won 62

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 13
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima

Starting XI ▼

24
Léo Linck
Léo Linck Goalkeeper
6.93
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Defender
6.96
4
Mateo Ponte
Mateo Ponte
Defender86'
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi Defender
6.72
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles (C) Defender
7.06
21
Marçal
Marçal
Defender86'
34
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino Defender
6.99
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Midfielder
6.83
11
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins Midfielder
7.34
23
Santiago Rodríguez
Santiago Rodríguez
Midfielder64'
6.71
75
Huguinho
Huguinho Midfielder
6.88
77
Lucas Villalba
Lucas Villalba Midfielder
6.57
59
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo Attacker
7.23
37
Kadir Barría
Kadir Barría
Attacker77'
79
Lucas Emanuel Attacker
Referee : Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima

Starting XI ▼

77
Gabriel Brazão
Gabriel Brazão Goalkeeper
6.97
4
Lucas Veríssimo
Lucas Veríssimo (C) Defender
6.71
14
Luan Peres
Luan Peres Defender
6.13
18
Igor Vinícius
Igor Vinícius Defender
6.58
25
Gabriel Menino
Gabriel Menino
Midfielder71'
31
Gonzalo Escobar
Gonzalo Escobar Defender
6.92
15
Willian Arão
Willian Arão Midfielder
6.9
22
Álvaro Barreal
Álvaro Barreal Midfielder
7.66
30
Miguelito
Miguelito Midfielder
7.3
—
Miguelito
64'
32
Benjamín Rollheiser
Benjamín Rollheiser Midfielder
6.91
49
Gabriel Bontempo
Gabriel Bontempo
Midfielder71'
48
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique Midfielder
6.62
28
Christian Oliva
Christian Oliva
Midfielder54'
6.56
16
Thaciano
Thaciano Attacker
6.25
11
Rony
Rony
Attacker64'
6.31

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kadir Barría
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+5'
Event
Marçal → Alex Telles 
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Mateo Ponte → Vitinho
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Edenilson → Lucas Emanuel
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Nahuel Ferraresi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Kadir Barría → Kauan Toledo
7th Substitution
77'
71'
Event
Gabriel Bontempo → Benjamín Rollheiser
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Gabriel Menino → Igor Vinícius
6th Substitution
Event
Santiago Rodríguez → Matheus Martins
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Nadson → Miguelito
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Rony → Thaciano
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Álvaro Barreal
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Christian Oliva → Gustavo Henrique
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Matheus Martins
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
45+2'
45+2'
Event
Álvaro Barreal
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lucas Emanuel
Goal disallowed
42'
Event
Lucas Emanuel
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
26'
Event
Thaciano
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Huguinho
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! José Kadir scores, making it 2-1.
89
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Verissimo Da Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Vinicius Menino takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Verissimo Da Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Verissimo Da Silva takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Bontempo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Attempt Attempt
Nadson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Update Update
Mateo Ponte comes on for Victor Alexander da Silva. Vitinho also enters the match.
86
Update Update
Fernando Marcal De Oliveira is on, and Alex Nicolao Telles is off.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Villalba takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nahuel Ferraresi receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ronielson da Silva Barbosa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Update Update
Edenilson Andrade dos Santos comes on for Lucas Emanuel Jales do Nascimento.
77
Substitution Substitution
José Kadir is substituted for Kauan Toledo.
77
Attempt Attempt
Ronielson da Silva Barbosa takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
71
Update Update
On comes Gabriel Bontempo, off goes Benjamin Rollheiser.
71
Update Update
Gabriel Vinicius Menino comes on for Igor Vinicius de Souza.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Santiago Rodriguez is on, and Matheus Martins is off.
64
Update Update
Ronielson da Silva Barbosa comes on for Thaciano Mickael da Silva.
64
Update Update
Nadson replaces Miguel Terceros.
62
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Huguinho takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Alvaro Barreal scores with a left-footed shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alvaro Barreal scores, making it 1-1.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alvaro Barreal scores to make it 1-1.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Christian Oliva comes on for Gustavo Henrique.
53
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina attempts a header but misses the shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Thaciano Mickael da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Attempt Attempt
Thaciano Mickael da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Barreal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matheus Martins.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Alvaro Barreal.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Barreal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
41
Update Update
Offside.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
37
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Verissimo Da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Attempt Attempt
Igor Vinicius de Souza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Barreal's left-footed shot is blocked.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Thaciano Mickael da Silva.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Huguinho receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Terceros takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Barreal takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Huguinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Huguinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Huguinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Barreal's left-footed shot is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima.

CONCLUSION

Botafogo's 2-1 win over Santos demonstrated the unpredictable nature of football results when compared to expected metrics. Despite trailing in xG and possession, the home side's clinical finishing proved decisive in securing all three points. The halftime lead of 1-0 provided a solid foundation that was built upon in the second half. With no red cards to disrupt proceedings, the contest remained balanced in terms of personnel throughout. This victory aligns with Botafogo being the stronger team on paper, even as underlying numbers suggested a different story. The performance highlighted key shifts in efficiency that favored the eventual winners. Overall, the match served as a reminder that final scores can diverge from statistical projections.