Botafogo vs Grêmio preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos Today - 12:00 AM
Serie A
Botafogo BOT
Grêmio GRE
KICKOFF : Today - 12:00 AM
Round 21 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Botafogo welcomes Grêmio to Estádio Nilton Santos for a Serie A regular season encounter in 2026. The hosts sit seventh in the domestic standings while the visitors occupy fifteenth place. Botafogo carries a modest power advantage of 5.8 points over their opponents. Recent form shows the home side ahead on 26.17 points compared with 12.06 for Grêmio. Both clubs enter the fixture without recent match data to review. Set piece information carries low confidence and relies on proxy metrics for each team. Efficiency and transition details remain unavailable at present. The stronger side on paper is Botafogo.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Botafogo holds seventh place domestically against Grêmio in fifteenth.
  • Form: Home side leads with 26.17 form points to away side 12.06.
  • Squad: Botafogo enters as the stronger team by 5.8 power points.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics stay unavailable for both clubs ahead of kickoff.
  • Transition: Transition phase data is not provided in current records.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy data applied.
  • xVariable: Power scores list Botafogo at 68.85 and Grêmio at 63.01.
  • Market: Projection split: Botafogo 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Grêmio 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
VS
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cruzeiro Rank: 69 W
Vitória Rank: 62 D
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 63 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Corinthians Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fluminense Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 65 L
Corinthians Rank: 68 L
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Flamengo Rank: 76 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Botafogo
0%
Draw
0%
Away Grêmio
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.85
63.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Grêmio
Power Score
68.85
63.01
League Position
7
15
Global Rank
304
466

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Grêmio

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
5 matches
Grêmio GRE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
9
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-28T00:03:54+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 29, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 21 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity
46831
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

17
Warleson Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
Warleson Stellion Lisboa Oliveira Goalkeeper
1
Raul Jonas Steffens
Raul Jonas Steffens Goalkeeper
12
Gabriel Batista de Souza
Gabriel Batista de Souza Goalkeeper
40
Cristian Joel Loor Santamaría
Cristian Joel Loor Santamaría Goalkeeper
21
Fernando Marçal de Oliveira
Fernando Marçal de Oliveira Defender
13
Alex Nicolao Telles
Alex Nicolao Telles Defender
31
Kaio Fernando da Silva Pantaleão
Kaio Fernando da Silva Pantaleão Defender
29
Paulo Victor da Silva
Paulo Victor da Silva Defender
5
Nahuel Ferraresi Hernández
Nahuel Ferraresi Hernández Defender
34
Edson Gabriel Justino
Edson Gabriel Justino Defender
2
Victor Alexander da Silva
Victor Alexander da Silva Defender
27
Caio Alves Roque Gomes
Caio Alves Roque Gomes Defender
33
Lucas Gabriel Monzón Lemos
Lucas Gabriel Monzón Lemos Defender
4
Mateo Ponte Costa
Mateo Ponte Costa Defender
67
Jhoan Hernández Mejia
Jhoan Hernández Mejia Defender
3
Ythallo Rykelm Rodrigues de Oliveira
Ythallo Rykelm Rodrigues de Oliveira Defender
26
Anthony Wesley Ciriano Oliveira
Anthony Wesley Ciriano Oliveira Defender
25
Allan Marques Loureiro
Allan Marques Loureiro Midfielder
88
Edenílson Andrade dos Santos
Edenílson Andrade dos Santos Midfielder
23
Santiago Mariano Rodríguez Molina
Santiago Mariano Rodríguez Molina Midfielder
—
Domingos Paulo Andrade
Domingos Paulo Andrade Midfielder
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Midfielder
8
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira Midfielder
14
Jordán Andrés Barrera Herrera
Jordán Andrés Barrera Herrera Midfielder
55
Wallace Davi Nunes da Silva Dias
Wallace Davi Nunes da Silva Dias Midfielder
75
Victor Hugo Custódio de Melo Moura
Victor Hugo Custódio de Melo Moura Midfielder
30
Carlos Joaquín Correa
Carlos Joaquín Correa Attacker
19
Arthur Mendonça Cabral
Arthur Mendonça Cabral Attacker
—
Danilo Pereira da Silva
Danilo Pereira da Silva Attacker
7
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior Attacker
—
Elias Manoel Alves de Paula
Elias Manoel Alves de Paula Attacker
11
Matheus Martins Silva dos Santos
Matheus Martins Silva dos Santos Attacker
77
Lucas Martín Villalba Jaume
Lucas Martín Villalba Jaume Attacker
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Attacker
37
Kadir Barria
Kadir Barria Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Weverton Pereira da Silva
Weverton Pereira da Silva Goalkeeper
12
Gabriel Hamester Grando
Gabriel Hamester Grando Goalkeeper
24
Thiago Beltrame Stallbaum
Thiago Beltrame Stallbaum Goalkeeper
31
Gabriel Otávio Menegon
Gabriel Otávio Menegon Goalkeeper
7
Cristian David Pavón
Cristian David Pavón Defender
14
Marcos Luis Rocha Aquino
Marcos Luis Rocha Aquino Defender
18
João Pedro Maturano dos Santos
João Pedro Maturano dos Santos Defender
2
Fabián Cornelio Balbuena González
Fabián Cornelio Balbuena González Defender
4
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann Defender
23
Marlon Rodrigues Xavier
Marlon Rodrigues Xavier Defender
38
Caio Fernando de Oliveira
Caio Fernando de Oliveira Defender
3
Wagner Leonardo Calvelo de Souza
Wagner Leonardo Calvelo de Souza Defender
53
Gustavo Martins de Souza Santos
Gustavo Martins de Souza Santos Defender
—
Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos
Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos Defender
54
Pedro Gabriel Crisostomo Pinheiro
Pedro Gabriel Crisostomo Pinheiro Defender
43
Luis Eduardo Guedes de Souza
Luis Eduardo Guedes de Souza Defender
17
Douglas Moreira Fagundes
Douglas Moreira Fagundes Midfielder
20
Mathías Adalberto Villasanti Rolón
Mathías Adalberto Villasanti Rolón Midfielder
5
Juan Ignacio Martín Nardoni
Juan Ignacio Martín Nardoni Midfielder
19
Erick Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola
Erick Carlos Noriega Loret de Mola Midfielder
11
Miguel Ángel Monsalve Gonzáles
Miguel Ángel Monsalve Gonzáles Midfielder
33
Leonel Ulises Pérez
Leonel Ulises Pérez Midfielder
65
Riquelme Freitas dos Santos
Riquelme Freitas dos Santos Midfielder
39
Tiago Augusto Gonçalves
Tiago Augusto Gonçalves Midfielder
37
Gabriel Ferreira de Carvalho
Gabriel Ferreira de Carvalho Midfielder
10
Willian Borges da Silva
Willian Borges da Silva Attacker
22
Martin Braithwaite Christensen
Martin Braithwaite Christensen Attacker
95
Carlos Vinícius Alves Morais
Carlos Vinícius Alves Morais Attacker
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Attacker
99
José David Enamorado Gómez
José David Enamorado Gómez Attacker
21
Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins
Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins Attacker
—
Matheus Nascimento de Paula
Matheus Nascimento de Paula Attacker
47
Roger Dias Fernandes
Roger Dias Fernandes Attacker

CONCLUSION

Botafogo prepares to host Grêmio with a clear edge in league standing and overall power rating. The home environment at Estádio Nilton Santos could support their push for points in this regular season clash. Grêmio arrives lower in the table and trails significantly in recent form indicators. Limited data on efficiency and transitions leaves some tactical questions open. Set piece evaluations depend on proxy figures that carry low confidence levels. Both sides will look to exploit available opportunities in open play. The fixture offers a chance for Botafogo to strengthen their mid-table position while Grêmio seeks to climb higher.