Botafogo vs Fluminense preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
Serie A
BotafogoBOT
FluminenseFLU
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
Round 22 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Botafogo hosts Fluminense at Estádio Nilton Santos in a 2026 Serie A regular season fixture. The home side holds a narrow power advantage of 1.6 points with a rating of 68.73 against the visitors 67.18. League positions show Fluminense in fourth place domestically while Botafogo sits eighth. Form scores stand at 20.78 for the hosts and 17.67 for the away team. Both clubs approach the match with closely matched overall metrics that point to a balanced encounter. The venue provides Botafogo with familiar surroundings that may influence the flow of play. Limited data on efficiency and set pieces leaves some aspects open to interpretation ahead of kickoff. This league meeting carries significance for both sides as they seek to improve their standing.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Botafogo holds a 1.6 point power advantage with ratings of 68.73 to Fluminense 67.18.
  • Form: Botafogo posts a form score of 20.78 while Fluminense registers 17.67.
  • Squad: Fluminense occupies fourth place and Botafogo eighth in domestic league standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition data shows no specific details available for either side.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis carries low confidence with proxy data applied to both clubs.
  • xVariable: Power scores list Botafogo at 68.73 and Fluminense at 67.18 for the match.
  • Market: Projection split: Botafogo 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Fluminense 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
VS
Fluminense L. Zubeldía
L. Zubeldía
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 69 W
Vitória Rank: 62 D
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 63 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Bragantino Rank: 64 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 66 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.73
67.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Fluminense
Power Score
68.73
67.18
League Position
8
4
Global Rank
306
343

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Fluminense

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
5 matches
Fluminense FLU Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
3
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-08T00:40:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 09, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity
46831
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Rodrigo Figueiredo Henrique Correa
Luiz Claudio Regazzone
Paulo Henrique Schleinch Vollkopf

Expected Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

17
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
7.53
19
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral Centre Forward
6.98
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi Left Back
6.61
23
Santiago Rodríguez
Santiago Rodríguez Right Wing
6.61
34
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino Right Back
6.85
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Defensive Midfield
6.84
8
Danilo
Danilo Defensive Midfield
7.27
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Attacking Midfield
6.86
11
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins Left Wing
6.84
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Right Back
6.82
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles Left Back
6.83
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
6.88
7
Hulk
Hulk Centre Forward
6.93
4
Ignácio
Ignácio Right Back
6.93
8
Martinelli
Martinelli Defensive Midfield
7.03
11
Jefferson Savarino
Jefferson Savarino Left Wing
7.21
13
Guilherme Arana
Guilherme Arana Left Back
6.91
35
Hércules
Hércules Defensive Midfield
6.94
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Right Wing
7.03
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta Attacking Midfield
7.31
44
Jemmes
Jemmes Left Back
6.77
23
Guga
Guga Right Back
6.81

CONCLUSION

Botafogo and Fluminense meet in a closely contested Serie A fixture where marginal differences define the outlook. The hosts slight power edge and home venue may provide a platform for control yet the visitors higher league position adds balance. Form scores tilt modestly toward Botafogo but both teams display comparable overall strength. Limited insights into efficiency and set pieces suggest the match could hinge on open play execution. Players will need to adapt quickly to maintain structure and exploit small openings. The encounter offers an opportunity for either side to gain ground in the standings through disciplined performance and tactical awareness throughout the ninety minutes.