Botafogo vs Fluminense preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos Sun, 9 Aug - 12:00 AM
Serie A
BotafogoBOT
1 – 1
FluminenseFLU
Full Time Sun, 9 Aug 12:00 AM
Round 22 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Ignácio - 58'
Marçal 90+5' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The encounter between Botafogo and Fluminense resulted in a 1-1 draw after ninety minutes of play. Botafogo scored first and led 1-0 at halftime. As the stronger team according to pre-match assessments, Botafogo generated 1.78 expected goals while Fluminense managed 1.1. Possession statistics showed Botafogo with 41 percent and Fluminense with 59 percent. The home side received one red card which impacted their performance in the latter stages. The away team equalized to secure the draw. The outcome was not aligned with the expected goals differential of 0.68 in favor of the hosts. Second half adjustments were necessary following the dismissal. This match highlighted various statistical deviations from anticipated patterns.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Botafogo experienced a significant 100 percent deviation from expected performance.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with the expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Botafogo had 1.78 expected goals compared to Fluminense's 1.1.
  • Event impact: The match concluded with a 1-1 scoreline despite the xG differential.
  • Red card distortion: A red card to Botafogo distorted the second half proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Arleu de Araujo
B. Arleu de Araujo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Henrique Correa
R. Henrique Correa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Regazzone
L. Regazzone
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Schleinch Vollkopf
P. Schleinch Vollkopf
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Botafogo F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
F. da Silva Maia Carvalho
VS
Fluminense L. Zubeldía
L. Zubeldía
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 69 W
Vitória Rank: 62 D
Santos Rank: 64 W
Bahia Rank: 64 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Bragantino Rank: 64 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 70 D
Mirassol Rank: 65 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.88
67.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Fluminense
Power Score
68.88
67.48
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
307
342

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Fluminense

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Botafogo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fluminense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Botafogo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fluminense
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
59.88
28.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.64
59.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Botafogo +2.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Fluminense -2.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Botafogo
Fluminense
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Botafogo
vs
Fluminense
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Botafogo Fluminense
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
18%
37%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.32 vs -0.41
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Botafogo Fluminense
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
37%
18%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.41 vs -0.32
Botafogo
Fluminense
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Botafogo
vs
Fluminense
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Botafogo Fluminense
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Botafogo 0.43
Fluminense 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Botafogo Fluminense
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Botafogo 0.02
Fluminense 0.02
Botafogo
Fluminense
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOT had peak pressure around 36'.
  • BOT started the game with stronger pressure.
BOT Pressure FLU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOT reached the top pressure at 36' (99.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
5 matches
Fluminense FLU Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
3
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-10T07:41:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 09, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity
46831
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Rodrigo Figueiredo Henrique Correa
Luiz Claudio Regazzone
Paulo Henrique Schleinch Vollkopf

Statistics

Possession
BOT
45%
FLU
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 5
51 Dangerous attacks 58
41 Possession 59
7 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 82
5 Goal Kicks 10
14 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 16
12 Successful Headers 18
0 Assists 1
2 Injuries 2
25 Dribble Attempts 13
11 Successful Dribbles 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54

Attacking

106 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

28 Long Passes 36
329 Passes 474
279 Successful Passes 408
85 Successful Passes Percentage 86
16 Key Passes 14
12 Successful Long Passes 12
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

3 Saves 6
12 Tackles 27
7 Interceptions 5
52 Duels Won 67

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 24
6 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
16 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

17
Warleson
Warleson Goalkeeper
6.96
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Defender
6.78
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi Defender
7.06
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles (C) Defender
7.29
29
Paulinho
Paulinho
Defender70'
6.88
34
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino Defender
6.53
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Midfielder
6.71
8
Danilo
Danilo Midfielder
7.13
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Midfielder
7.4
9
Danilo
Danilo
Attacker85'
6.63
59
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo Midfielder
6.71
14
Jordan Barrera
Jordan Barrera
Midfielder59'
6.68
77
Lucas Villalba
Lucas Villalba Midfielder
6.67
11
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins
Attacker60'
6.81
19
Arthur Cabral
Arthur Cabral Attacker
6.6
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
7.59
2
Samuel Xavier
Samuel Xavier (C) Defender
6.9
4
Ignácio
Ignácio Defender
8.08
6
Renê
Renê Defender
7.25
44
Jemmes
Jemmes Defender
7.2
10
Ganso
Ganso Midfielder
7.13
35
Hércules
Hércules
Midfielder70'
6.33
16
Nonato
Nonato Midfielder
6.67
11
Jefferson Savarino
Jefferson Savarino
Attacker79'
6.56
30
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo Midfielder
6.64
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta
Midfielder79'
6.29
90
Kevin Serna
Kevin Serna Midfielder
8.15
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio
Attacker70'
6.73
94
Otávio
Otávio Midfielder
6.84
19
Rodrigo Castillo
Rodrigo Castillo Attacker
6.88
7
Hulk
Hulk
Attacker85'
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marçal
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Marçal
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+5'
Event
Gabriel Justino
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Danilo → Álvaro Montoro
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Lucas Emanuel → Jordan Barrera
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Hulk  → Rodrigo Castillo
10th Substitution
79'
Event
Luciano Acosta → Yeferson Soteldo
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Jefferson Savarino → Nonato 
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Samuel Xavier 
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Nonato 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Paulinho → Alex Telles 
5th Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Agustín Canobbio → Kevin Serna
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Hércules → Ganso
4th Substitution
Event
Nahuel Ferraresi
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Matheus Martins → Lucas Villalba
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Jordan Barrera → Kauan Toledo
1st Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Ignácio
Header / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Ignácio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Alex Telles 
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
44'
34'
Event
Luis Zubeldia
Argument / 7th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Mendonca Cabral attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Emanuel Jales do Nascimento attempts a header, but the shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Dos Santos De Oliveira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luciano Federico Acosta takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Arthur Mendonca Cabral with his right foot is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Justino receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Offside.
85
Update Update
Danilo Pereira da Silva is on, and Alvaro Montoro is off.
85
Update Update
Lucas Emanuel Jales do Nascimento replaces Jordan Barrera.
85
Update Update
Givanildo Vieira De Souza, known as Hulk, comes on for Rodrigo Castillo.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Update Update
Jefferson Savarino comes on for Gustavo Nonato Santana.
79
Update Update
Luciano Federico Acosta is on, and Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Dos Santos De Oliveira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Samuel Xavier Brito.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Gustavo Nonato Santana.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Montoro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Barrera takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Substitution Substitution
Paulo Victor da Silva comes on for Paulinho, and Alex Nicolao Telles is substituted off.
70
Update Update
On comes Hercules Pereira do Nascimento, off goes Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima, Ganso.
69
Update Update
Agustin Canobbio Graviz replaces Kevin Serna.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Serna takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Nonato Santana takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Update Update
Matheus Martins is on, and Lucas Villalba is off.
59
Update Update
Matheus Martins comes on for Lucas Villalba.
58
Update Update
On comes Jordan Barrera, and off goes Kauan Toledo.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Kevin Serna.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Villalba takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
55
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Villalba takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Attempt Attempt
Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Update Update
Rodrigo Castillo attempts a header, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Serna takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Victor Alexander da Silva, Vitinho, with a right-footed shot that is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Alexander da Silva takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Alexander da Silva takes a shot, but Vitinho's right-footed attempt is blocked.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Alex Nicolao Telles takes a left-footed shot.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alex Nicolao Telles scores to make it 1-0.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Luis Zubeldia.
33
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Victor Alexander da Silva takes a shot with his left foot, but it is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Nicolas Medina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Castillo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Montoro's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Villalba takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Arthur Mendonca Cabral with his right foot is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Otavio Henrique Passos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Alex Nicolao Telles takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Arthur Mendonca Cabral with his right foot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bruno Arleu de Araujo.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Botafogo 1-1 Fluminense. Structural assessment: Botafogo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.