Botafogo vs Athletico PR preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio Nilton Santos
Serie A
BotafogoBOT
2 3
Athletico PRAPR
Full Time
Round 24 Regular Season
Santiago Rodríguez - 85', 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
João Cruz - 11'
Kevin Viveros - 13', 78'

CONTEXT

Botafogo hosted Athletico PR with the home side entering as the stronger team yet finishing on the losing end of a 2-3 scoreline. Athletico PR led 0-2 at halftime despite holding only 45 percent possession and generating 0.5 expected goals against Botafogo's 2.75. The hosts improved after the break to reduce the deficit but could not overcome the early disadvantage. No red cards were shown to either side during the match. The away side recorded a significant deviation from pre-match expectations while the outcome remained inconsistent with the xG differential of 2.25. Possession finished at 55 percent for Botafogo and 45 percent for Athletico PR.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Athletico PR achieved a significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the observed match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with the xG expectations.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations despite the xG differential.
  • xG expectations: Botafogo held an xG advantage of 2.25 but failed to secure the win.
  • Event impact: Athletico PR led 0-2 at halftime before the final score reached 2-3.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Skettino Policarpo Bento
A. Skettino Policarpo Bento
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
L. Carvalho
L. Carvalho
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. de Souza Lima
J. de Souza Lima
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. P. Ribeiro
J. P. Ribeiro
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Botafogo R. Aragonez Glória
R. Aragonez Glória
VS
Athletico PR O. Hellmann
O. Hellmann
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Rank: 61 L
Fluminense Rank: 67 D
Grêmio Rank: 61 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 70 W
Vitória Rank: 60 D
Santos Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bragantino Rank: 63 D
Santos Rank: 65 W
Corinthians Rank: 67 D
Internacional Rank: 63 W
São Paulo Rank: 62 W
Mirassol Rank: 63 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.27
57.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Botafogo
Athletico PR
Power Score
65.27
57.01
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
372
377

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Botafogo — Opponent-weighted form score
Athletico PR — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Botafogo Athletico PR

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Botafogo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Athletico PR

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Botafogo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletico PR
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.07
13.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.41
24.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Botafogo +0.88 Efficiency Index
vs
Athletico PR -0.88 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Botafogo
Athletico PR
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Botafogo
vs
Athletico PR
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Botafogo Athletico PR
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
54%
7%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.48 vs -0.03
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Botafogo Athletico PR
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
7%
54%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.03 vs -1.48
Botafogo
Athletico PR
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Botafogo
vs
Athletico PR
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Botafogo Athletico PR
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Botafogo 0.54
Athletico PR 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Botafogo Athletico PR
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Botafogo 0.20
Athletico PR 0.00
Botafogo
Athletico PR
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOT had peak pressure around 41'.
  • BOT started the game with stronger pressure.
BOT Pressure APR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOT reached the top pressure at 41' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Botafogo BOT Home
3 matches
Athletico PR APR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-25T00:07:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Nilton Santos
Capacity
46831
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento
Leone Carvalho
Joverton Wesley de Souza Lima
João Paulo Cunha Ribeiro

Statistics

Possession
BOT
55%
APR
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
14 Shots 1
53 Dangerous attacks 20
55 Possession 45
13 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 14
5 Substitutions 4
28 Throwins 15
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Successful Headers 3
0 Assists 1
10 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54

Attacking

92 Attacks 63
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

45 Long Passes 64
487 Passes 412
431 Successful Passes 346
89 Successful Passes Percentage 84
21 Key Passes 4
27 Successful Long Passes 34
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

Defensive

3 Saves 6
14 Tackles 18
5 Interceptions 13
37 Duels Won 47

Build-up

41 Total Crosses 9
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

12
Gabriel Batista
Gabriel Batista Goalkeeper
6.17
2
Vitinho
Vitinho Defender
6.63
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi Defender
6.8
13
Alex Telles
Alex Telles (C) Defender
7
34
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino Defender
6.41
6
Cristian Medina
Cristian Medina Midfielder
6.12
37
Kadir Barría
Kadir Barría
Attacker63'
10
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro Midfielder
6.45
11
Matheus Martins
Matheus Martins
Attacker80'
25
Allan
Allan Midfielder
6.72
75
Huguinho
Huguinho
Midfielder63'
59
Kauan Toledo
Kauan Toledo Midfielder
5.48
7
Júnior Santos
Júnior Santos
Attacker46'
88
Edenilson
Edenilson Midfielder
6.46
23
Santiago Rodríguez
Santiago Rodríguez
Midfielder72'
2
9
Danilo
Danilo Attacker
6.52
Referee : André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento

Starting XI ▼

23
Santos
Santos (C) Goalkeeper
7.14
4
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias Defender
6.88
25
Dantas
Dantas Defender
7.41
33
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Juan Felipe Aguirre Defender
6.66
7
Stiven Mendoza
Stiven Mendoza Midfielder
6.53
8
João Cruz
João Cruz Midfielder
7.25
53
Dudu
Dudu
Midfielder61'
14
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo Midfielder
6.58
27
Juan Portilla
Juan Portilla
Midfielder46'
16
Jádson
Jádson Midfielder
7.25
29
Gastón Benavídez
Gastón Benavídez Midfielder
6.94
9
Kevin Viveros
Kevin Viveros Attacker
2
7.19
70
Renan Peixoto
Renan Peixoto
Attacker85'
21
Leozinho
Leozinho Attacker
6.55
18
Kerwin Vargas
Kerwin Vargas
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Santiago Rodríguez
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+2'
Event
Santiago Rodríguez
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
85'
85'
Event
Renan Peixoto → Kevin Viveros
9th Substitution
Event
Matheus Martins → Álvaro Montoro
8th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Kevin Viveros
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
77'
Event
Dantas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Santiago Rodríguez → Edenilson
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Edenilson
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Kadir Barría → Cristian Medina
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Huguinho → Allan 
6th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Dudu → João Cruz
4th Substitution
Event
Júnior Santos  → Kauan Toledo
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Juan Portilla → Luiz Gustavo
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kerwin Vargas → Leozinho
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kauan Toledo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
13'
Event
Kevin Viveros
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
11'
Event
João Cruz
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Santiago Rodriguez scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! José Kadir scores to make it 2-3, assisted by Danilo Pereira da Silva.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
José Kadir takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
José Kadir's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Update Update
Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno comes on for Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Santiago Rodriguez scores with a left-footed shot.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Santiago Rodriguez scores, making it 1-3.
83
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Martins takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
80
Update Update
Matheus Martins comes on for Alvaro Montoro.
80
Attempt Attempt
José Kadir takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega scores to make it 0-3, assisted by Kerwin Vargas.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Dantas.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Montoro takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
74
Attempt Attempt
Alex Nicolao Telles takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
José Kadir takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Santiago Rodriguez replaces Edenilson Andrade dos Santos.
70
Attempt Attempt
Juan Felipe Aguirre takes a header, but it's saved.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edenilson Andrade dos Santos.
63
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Justino takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
José Kadir replaces Cristian Nicolas Medina.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
Huguinho replaces Allan Marques Loureiro.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Update Update
Dudu Kogitzki is on, and Joao Cruz is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Alex Nicolao Telles takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Juan Camilo Portilla Pena comes on for Luiz Gustavo Dias.
46
Substitution Substitution
Kerwin Vargas is substituted for Leozinho.
46
Update Update
Jose Antonio dos Santos Junior comes on for Kauan Toledo.
45
Attempt Attempt
Allan Marques Loureiro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Montoro takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Victor Alexander da Silva takes a shot with his left foot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Alex Nicolao Telles takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Ferraresi's header is saved.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Attempt Attempt
Edenilson Andrade dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Attempt Attempt
Joao Cruz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kauan Toledo receives a yellow card.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Ferraresi's header is saved.
30
Update Update
Offside.
28
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Edenilson Andrade dos Santos takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
21
Attempt Attempt
Kauan Toledo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Update Update
Offside.
16
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Update Update
Offside.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega scores, making it 0-2, assisted by Dantas.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Joao Cruz takes a shot with his head and scores.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jadson Alves dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joao Cruz scores to make it 0-1.
6
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Victor Alexander da Silva, Vitinho, with a right-footed shot that misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Alex Nicolao Telles takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Botafogo 2-3 Athletico PR. Structural assessment: Athletico PR exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.