Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield preview

Argentina flag 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina
Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Boca JuniorsBOC
1 – 1
Vélez SarsfieldVEL
Full Time
Round 4 2nd Phase
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Boca Juniors 1–1 Vélez Sarsfield. The match ended in a draw. Boca Juniors showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Boca Juniors 1.2 – 0.3 Vélez Sarsfield. Possession was 59%–41%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Boca Juniors 1-1 Vélez Sarsfield. Boca Juniors showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Falcón Pérez
Y. Falcón Pérez
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
P. Acevedo
P. Acevedo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Castelli
M. Castelli
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Echenique
F. Echenique
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Boca Juniors R. Arruabarrena
R. Arruabarrena
VS
Vélez Sarsfield G. Barros Schelotto
G. Barros Schelotto
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.76
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estudiantes Rank: 71 W
Newell's Old Boys Rank: 60 D
Deportivo Riestra Rank: 60 L
Huracán Rank: 65 L
Central Cordoba SdE Rank: 60 W
Defensa y Justicia Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Independiente Rank: 71 W
Talleres Córdoba Rank: 62 W
Instituto Rank: 62 W
Gimnasia La Plata Rank: 66 L
Newell's Old Boys Rank: 59 D
Unión Santa Fe Rank: 62 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.67
68.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Boca Juniors
Vélez Sarsfield
Power Score
71.67
68.74
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
226
305

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Boca Juniors — Opponent-weighted form score
Vélez Sarsfield — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Boca Juniors Vélez Sarsfield

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Boca Juniors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vélez Sarsfield

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Boca Juniors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vélez Sarsfield
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
57.20
24.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.02
57.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Boca Juniors +2.86 Efficiency Index
vs
Vélez Sarsfield -2.86 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Boca Juniors
Vélez Sarsfield
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Boca Juniors
vs
Vélez Sarsfield
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Boca Juniors Vélez Sarsfield
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
13%
30%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.16 vs -0.10
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Boca Juniors Vélez Sarsfield
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
30%
13%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.10 vs -0.16
Boca Juniors
Vélez Sarsfield
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Boca Juniors
vs
Vélez Sarsfield
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Boca Juniors Vélez Sarsfield
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Boca Juniors 0.40
Vélez Sarsfield 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Boca Juniors Vélez Sarsfield
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Boca Juniors 0.03
Vélez Sarsfield 0.01
Boca Juniors
Vélez Sarsfield
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOC had peak pressure around 80'.
  • BOC started the game with stronger pressure.
BOC Pressure VEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOC reached the top pressure at 80' (85.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Boca Juniors BOC Home
2 matches
Vélez Sarsfield VEL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-09T00:38:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina · Round 4 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó
Capacity
48314
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yael Falcón Pérez
Pablo Acevedo
Maximiliano Castelli
Fernando Echenique

Statistics

Possession
BOC
58%
VEL
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 3
75 Dangerous attacks 37
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

100 Ball Safe 103
13 Goal Attempts 5
4 Substitutions 5
13 Throwins 14
2 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Dribble Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 8
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

Attacking

130 Attacks 97

Possession

23 Long Passes 21
497 Passes 359
463 Successful Passes 304
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
22 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 8
12 Tackles 16
12 Interceptions 9
59 Duels Won 51

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Montero
Álvaro Montero Goalkeeper
6.61
2
Lautaro Di Lollo
Lautaro Di Lollo Defender
6.68
3
Lautaro Blanco
Lautaro Blanco Defender
7.26
17
Leandro Lozano
Leandro Lozano Defender
6.85
32
Ayrton Costa
Ayrton Costa Defender
6.52
26
Marco Pellegrino
Marco Pellegrino
Defender46'
6.57
5
Leandro Paredes
Leandro Paredes (C) Midfielder
8.72
18
Milton Delgado
Milton Delgado Midfielder
7.23
25
Santiago Ascacíbar
Santiago Ascacíbar Midfielder
8.23
10
Tomás Aranda
Tomás Aranda Attacker
7.12
20
Alan Velasco
Alan Velasco
Midfielder63'
6.96
16
Miguel Merentiel
Miguel Merentiel Attacker
7
9
Milton Giménez
Milton Giménez
Attacker63'
6.72
19
Leonel Benjamín Flores
Leonel Benjamín Flores Attacker
6.85
22
Sebastián Villa
Sebastián Villa
Attacker74'
6.77
Referee : Yael Falcón Pérez

Starting XI ▼

1
Tomás Marchiori
Tomás Marchiori Goalkeeper
8.16
2
Emanuel Mammana
Emanuel Mammana Defender
6.81
3
Elías Gómez
Elías Gómez (C) Defender
6.49
5
Claudio Baeza
Claudio Baeza
Midfielder63'
6.69
4
Joaquín García
Joaquín García Defender
6.25
32
Thiago Silvero
Thiago Silvero Defender
7.39
8
Lucas Robertone
Lucas Robertone Midfielder
6.8
48
Luca Feler
Luca Feler
Midfielder83'
6.78
10
Diego Valdés
Diego Valdés Midfielder
6.96
18
Simón Valentín Escobar
Simón Valentín Escobar
Defender46'
6.63
11
Matías Pellegrini
Matías Pellegrini Midfielder
6.41
22
Manuel Lanzini
Manuel Lanzini Midfielder
7.12
17
Á. Verón
Á. Verón
Attacker83'
6.64
29
Rodrigo Aliendro
Rodrigo Aliendro Midfielder
6.68
15
Dilan Godoy
Dilan Godoy Attacker
6.85
39
Thiago Aguirre
Thiago Aguirre
Attacker63'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Joaquín García
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Luca Feler → Lucas Robertone
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Á. Verón → Manuel Lanzini
9th Substitution
Event
Sebastián Villa → Leonel Benjamín Flores
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Milton Giménez  → Miguel Merentiel 
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Alan Velasco  → Tomás Aranda
6th Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Thiago Aguirre → Dilan Godoy
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Claudio Baeza → Elías Gómez
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Matías Pellegrini
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
54'
Event
Elías Gómez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Pellegrino → Ayrton Costa
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Simón Valentín Escobar → Diego Valdés
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ayrton Costa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
44'
42'
Event
Lucas Robertone
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Santiago Ascacíbar
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
39'
Event
Lautaro Blanco
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
12'
Event
Diego Valdés
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luca Feler takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 1-1.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Attempt Attempt
Luca Feler takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
88
Update Update
Offside.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roberto Joaquin Garcia receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Milton Gimenez attempts a header but misses the shot.
87
Attempt Attempt
Milton Delgado takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Luca Feler comes on for Lucas Robertone.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Robertone takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
78
Update Update
Offside.
77
Update Update
Offside.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Substitution Substitution
Sebastian Villa Cano is substituted for Leonel Flores.
74
Update Update
Offside.
74
Attempt Attempt
Leonel Flores takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ascacibar attempts a header but misses the shot.
68
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ascacibar takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Claudio Baeza comes on for Elias Gomez.
63
Update Update
Alan Velasco is on, and Tomas Aranda is off.
63
Update Update
Thiago Aquirre comes on for Dilan Godoy.
63
Update Update
Milton Gimenez is on, and Miguel Merentiel is off.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Matias Pellegrini.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Attempt Attempt
Dilan Godoy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ascacibar takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elias Gomez receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Blanco takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Marco Pellegrino is on, and Ayrton Enrique Costa is off.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Simon Escobar comes on for Diego Alfonso Valdes Contreras.
45
Update Update
Santiago Ascacibar takes a header but hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Merentiel takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Dilan Godoy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayrton Enrique Costa receives a yellow card.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Robertone receives a yellow card.
40
Update Update
Offside.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Lucas Robertone.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Santiago Ascacibar takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Santiago Ascacibar scores, making it 1-1.
36
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lautaro Blanco receives a yellow card.
33
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Aranda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Daniel Paredes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Blanco takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Aliendro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Update Update
Offside.
19
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Merentiel's header is saved.
19
Update Update
Offside.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Thiago Silvero Head Shot Saved
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Diego Alfonso Valdes Contreras takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Aranda takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Aranda takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
5
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Lozano takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Yael Falcon Perez.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Boca Juniors 1-1 Vélez Sarsfield. Structural assessment: Boca Juniors exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.