Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes preview

Argentina flag 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina
Estadio Alberto José Armando Wed, 5 Aug - 10:00 PM
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Boca JuniorsBOC
1 0
EstudiantesEST
Full Time Wed, 5 Aug 10:00 PM
Round 2 2nd Phase
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Boca Juniors hosted Estudiantes and secured a narrow 1-0 victory in a match where the home side led from the first half onward. The halftime score was 1-0. Boca Juniors held 61 percent possession against Estudiantes 39 percent while generating 1.0 expected goals to the visitors 0.52. The stronger team prevailed as the outcome remained consistent with statistical indicators. No red cards were issued to players from either side during the contest. The game featured controlled play from Boca who protected their advantage without major disruptions. Estudiantes created fewer opportunities and could not find an equalizer despite their efforts in the second period.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Boca Juniors recorded a significant deviation level of 100 percent in the match.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics throughout.
  • xG alignment: The outcome proved consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match indicators for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Boca Juniors posted 1.0 xG against Estudiantes 0.52 xG.
  • Event impact: The 1-0 score delivered victory to Boca Juniors as the stronger team.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the game flow experienced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Arasa
N. Arasa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Boca Juniors R. Arruabarrena
R. Arruabarrena
VS
Estudiantes A. Medina Reobasco
A. Medina Reobasco
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newell's Old Boys Rank: 60 D
Deportivo Riestra Rank: 60 L
Huracán Rank: 66 L
Central Cordoba SdE Rank: 61 W
Defensa y Justicia Rank: 60 W
River Plate Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Defensa y Justicia Rank: 62 W
Independiente Rank: 68 L
Racing Club Rank: 70 L
Platense Rank: 60 W
Talleres Córdoba Rank: 64 D
Instituto Rank: 65 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.19
70.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
Power Score
72.19
70.7
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
240
283

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Boca Juniors — Opponent-weighted form score
Estudiantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Boca Juniors Estudiantes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Boca Juniors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estudiantes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Boca Juniors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estudiantes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.90
26.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.54
25.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Boca Juniors -0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Estudiantes +0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Boca Juniors
vs
Estudiantes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Boca Juniors Estudiantes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
3%
4%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.03 vs -0.02
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Boca Juniors Estudiantes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
4%
3%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.02 vs -0.03
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Boca Juniors
vs
Estudiantes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Boca Juniors Estudiantes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Boca Juniors 0.16
Estudiantes 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Boca Juniors Estudiantes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Boca Juniors 0.00
Estudiantes 0.01
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOC had peak pressure around 48'.
  • EST started the game with stronger pressure.
BOC Pressure EST Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BOC reached the top pressure at 48' (63.24).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 05, 2026, 10:00 PM
Competition
2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina · Round 2 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Estadio Alberto José Armando
Capacity
54000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nazareno Arasa

Statistics

Possession
BOC
58%
EST
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 3
76 Dangerous attacks 47
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

87 Ball Safe 79
10 Goal Kicks 9
6 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 14
1 Assists 0
16 Dribble Attempts 23
6 Successful Dribbles 10
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

Attacking

124 Attacks 104
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

58 Long Passes 48
612 Passes 381
530 Successful Passes 306
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
10 Key Passes 5
33 Successful Long Passes 24
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

4 Saves 1
21 Tackles 18
4 Interceptions 11
49 Duels Won 59

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 20
1 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
16 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Nazareno Arasa

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Montero
Álvaro Montero Goalkeeper
7.72
2
Lautaro Di Lollo
Lautaro Di Lollo Defender
7.2
3
Lautaro Blanco
Lautaro Blanco Defender
7.7
17
Leandro Lozano
Leandro Lozano Defender
6.9
26
Marco Pellegrino
Marco Pellegrino Defender
6.91
5
Leandro Paredes
Leandro Paredes (C) Midfielder
7.45
23
Camilo Rey Domenech
Camilo Rey Domenech
Midfielder85'
6.56
10
Tomás Aranda
Tomás Aranda Midfielder
6.94
20
Alan Velasco
Alan Velasco
Midfielder80'
6.43
18
Milton Delgado
Milton Delgado Midfielder
7.35
19
Leonel Benjamín Flores
Leonel Benjamín Flores Midfielder
6.69
21
Kevin Zenón
Kevin Zenón
Midfielder85'
6.58
25
Santiago Ascacíbar
Santiago Ascacíbar Midfielder
7.23
16
Miguel Merentiel
Miguel Merentiel Attacker
6.77
22
Sebastián Villa
Sebastián Villa
Attacker67'
6.64
Referee : Nazareno Arasa

Starting XI ▼

1
Fabricio Iacovich
Fabricio Iacovich Goalkeeper
6.65
4
Santiago Núñez
Santiago Núñez Defender
7.16
13
Gastón Benedetti
Gastón Benedetti Defender
6.48
20
Eric Meza
Eric Meza Defender
6.5
24
Tomás Palacios
Tomás Palacios Defender
7.57
10
Tiago Palacios
Tiago Palacios Midfielder
6.04
8
Gabriel Neves
Gabriel Neves
Midfielder68'
6.53
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Joaquín Tobio Burgos Midfielder
6.49
28
Brian Aguirre
Brian Aguirre
Attacker60'
6.74
21
Ezequiel Piovi
Ezequiel Piovi Midfielder
7.33
27
Lucas Alario
Lucas Alario
Attacker86'
6.55
22
Alexis Castro
Alexis Castro Midfielder
6.89
11
Facundo Farías
Facundo Farías
Midfielder68'
6.74
29
Fabricio Pérez
Fabricio Pérez Midfielder
6.22
18
Edwuin Cetré
Edwuin Cetré
Attacker60'
6.52
9
Guido Carrillo
Guido Carrillo (C) Attacker
7.12

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Gastón Benedetti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Lucas Alario → Ezequiel Piovi
9th Substitution
Event
Camilo Rey Domenech → Leandro Paredes
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Kevin Zenón → Leonel Benjamín Flores
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Alan Velasco  → Tomás Aranda
6th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Gabriel Neves
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Leonel Benjamín Flores
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
68'
Event
Facundo Farías → Alexis Castro
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Gabriel Neves → Tiago Palacios
5th Substitution
Event
Sebastián Villa → Miguel Merentiel 
3rd Substitution
67'
60'
Event
Brian Aguirre → Joaquín Tobio Burgos
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Edwuin Cetré → Fabricio Pérez
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Ezequiel Piovi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Santiago Ascacíbar
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+1'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Gaston Benedetti Taffarel.
90
Attempt Attempt
Guido Marcelo Carrillo's header is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Brian Nicolas Aguirre takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Attempt Attempt
Alan Velasco takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Camilo Rey Domenech is on, and Leandro Daniel Paredes is off.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Kevin Zenon comes on for Leonel Flores.
80
Update Update
On Sebastian Villa Cano, off Tomas Aranda.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Neves receives a yellow card.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Leonel Flores.
72
Attempt Attempt
Leonel Flores takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Offside.
68
Update Update
Gabriel Neves comes on for Tiago Palacios.
68
Update Update
Facundo Farias comes on for Alexis Castro.
67
Update Update
Sebastian Villa Cano comes on for Miguel Merentiel.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Brian Nicolas Aguirre comes on for Joaquin Tobio Burgos.
60
Update Update
Edwin Steven Cetre Angulo is on, and Fabricio Perez is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Leonel Flores takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Lucas Ezequiel Piovi.
53
Update Update
Offside.
48
Attempt Attempt
Fabricio Perez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Aranda takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Santiago Ascacibar takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Santiago Ascacibar scores to make it 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Merentiel takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Leonel Flores takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Guido Marcelo Carrillo attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Attempt Attempt
Guido Marcelo Carrillo's right-footed shot is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Merentiel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Attempt Attempt
Milton Delgado takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Aranda takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Guido Marcelo Carrillo takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Joaquin Tobio Burgos with his left foot is saved.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ascacibar takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Castro with his left foot, but he misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Nazareno Arasa.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Boca Juniors 1-0 Estudiantes. Structural assessment: Boca Juniors exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.