Belgrano vs Independiente Rivadavia preview

Argentina flag 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina
Estadio Julio César Villagra
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
BelgranoBEL
2 0
Independiente RivadaviaINR
Full Time
Round 5 2nd Phase
Tomás Bottari - 42' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Belgrano secured a 2-0 victory over Independiente Rivadavia with the home side leading 1-0 at halftime. Both teams posted identical expected goals figures of 0.98 yet the result proved inconsistent with those metrics. Possession remained balanced at 49 percent for Belgrano and 51 percent for the visitors. Independiente Rivadavia entered as the stronger side but could not convert that status into a positive outcome. No red cards occurred and the game proceeded with eleven players on each team throughout. The significant performance deviation enabled Belgrano to claim all three points in a contest defined by narrow margins and decisive moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Belgrano recorded a significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations in achieving the win.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance indicators across both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment showed equal values of 0.98 yet the final result did not match this balance.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved market aligned despite the zero xG differential between the teams.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations pointed to a tight encounter given the identical 0.98 figures for each side.
  • Event impact: Key events shaped Belgrano's 2-0 success against Independiente Rivadavia on the day.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no red card distortion to the match flow or personnel.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Arasa
N. Arasa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Espinoza
D. Espinoza
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Badano
J. Badano
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Belgrano R. Zielinski
R. Zielinski
VS
Independiente Rivadavia A. Berti
A. Berti
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Banfield Rank: 60 W
Tigre Rank: 66 D
Argentinos Juniors Rank: 74 L
Rosario Central Rank: 68 W
River Plate Rank: 67 W
Argentinos Juniors Rank: 73 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Rank: 56 W
Sarmiento Rank: 59 L
Huracán Rank: 65 W
Atlético Tucumán Rank: 61 D
Unión Santa Fe Rank: 61 L
Aldosivi Rank: 54 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.3
69.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Belgrano
Independiente Rivadavia
Power Score
69.3
69.56
League Position
5
8
Global Rank
284
275

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Belgrano — Opponent-weighted form score
Independiente Rivadavia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Belgrano Independiente Rivadavia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Belgrano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Independiente Rivadavia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Belgrano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Independiente Rivadavia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.06
21.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.86
28.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Belgrano +0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Independiente Rivadavia -0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Belgrano
Independiente Rivadavia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Belgrano
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Belgrano Independiente Rivadavia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
4%
8%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.04 vs -0.08
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Belgrano Independiente Rivadavia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
8%
4%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.08 vs -0.04
Belgrano
Independiente Rivadavia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Belgrano
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Belgrano Independiente Rivadavia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Belgrano 0.20
Independiente Rivadavia 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Belgrano Independiente Rivadavia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Belgrano 0.00
Independiente Rivadavia 0.04
Belgrano
Independiente Rivadavia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • INR had peak pressure around 78'.
  • BEL started the game with stronger pressure.
BEL Pressure INR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: INR reached the top pressure at 78' (99.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Belgrano BEL Home
4 matches
Independiente Rivadavia INR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
1
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-16T00:11:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina · Round 5 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Estadio Julio César Villagra
Capacity
18000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nazareno Arasa
Damián Espinoza
Joaquín Badano

Statistics

Possession
BEL
50%
INR
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
55 Dangerous attacks 43
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

11 Goal Kicks 8
3 Substitutions 5
26 Throwins 25
1 Hit Woodwork 0
18 Dribble Attempts 18
13 Successful Dribbles 7
72 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39

Attacking

107 Attacks 104
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

72 Long Passes 55
413 Passes 430
316 Successful Passes 367
77 Successful Passes Percentage 85
8 Key Passes 7
32 Successful Long Passes 31
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

2 Saves 1
23 Tackles 15
5 Interceptions 17
61 Duels Won 46

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 22
5 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

0 Offsides 5
7 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Nazareno Arasa

Starting XI ▼

25
Thiago Cardozo
Thiago Cardozo Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Alexis Maldonado
Alexis Maldonado Defender
6.88
3
Adrián Spörle
Adrián Spörle Defender
6.47
14
Leonardo Morales
Leonardo Morales Defender
6.5
45
Agustín Falcón
Agustín Falcón
Defender33'
6.46
17
Lisandro López
Lisandro López (C) Defender
7.9
11
Francisco González Metilli
Francisco González Metilli Midfielder
7.39
20
Franco Vázquez
Franco Vázquez Midfielder
7.78
21
Adrián Sánchez
Adrián Sánchez Midfielder
7.24
5
Santiago Longo
Santiago Longo
Midfielder78'
6.46
24
Emiliano Rigoni
Emiliano Rigoni Midfielder
7.81
8
Ramiro Hernandes
Ramiro Hernandes
Midfielder78'
6.63
53
Juan Velázquez
Juan Velázquez Midfielder
6.7
9
Lucas Passerini
Lucas Passerini Attacker
6.73
Referee : Nazareno Arasa

Starting XI ▼

21
Emmanuel Gómez Riga
Emmanuel Gómez Riga Goalkeeper
6.29
13
Alejo Osella
Alejo Osella Defender
7.12
27
Diego Crego
Diego Crego Defender
6.33
28
Alex Vigo
Alex Vigo Defender
7.01
40
Iván Villalba
Iván Villalba (C) Defender
6.38
5
Tomás Bottari
Tomás Bottari Midfielder
6.46
34
Stefano Moreyra
Stefano Moreyra
Midfielder46'
6.91
11
Gonzalo Ríos
Gonzalo Ríos Midfielder
6.04
17
Maximiliano Salas
Maximiliano Salas
Attacker60'
6.85
19
Rodrigo Atencio
Rodrigo Atencio Midfielder
6.48
25
José Florentín
José Florentín Midfielder
7.06
8
Leonel Bucca
Leonel Bucca
Midfielder60'
6.82
32
Kevin Vázquez
Kevin Vázquez Midfielder
6.57
9
Álex Arce
Álex Arce
Attacker60'
6.49
45
Luciano Sábato
Luciano Sábato Attacker
6.19
14
Luciano Gómez
Luciano Gómez
Defender68'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ramiro Hernandes → Emiliano Rigoni
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Santiago Longo → Adrián Sánchez
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Santiago Longo
Unallowed field entering / 5th Yellowcard
77'
68'
Event
Luciano Gómez → Luciano Sábato
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Diego Crego
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Maximiliano Salas
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Iván Villalba
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Álex Arce → Kevin Vázquez
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Leonel Bucca → José Florentín
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Maximiliano Salas → Gonzalo Ríos
5th Substitution
Event
Emiliano Rigoni
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
46'
Event
Stefano Moreyra → Tomás Bottari
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Tomás Bottari
Header / 1st Own Goal
42'
Event
Agustín Falcón → Leonardo Morales
1st Substitution
33'
30'
Event
Luciano Sábato
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Rodrigo Atencio Left Footed Shot Saved
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Stefano Moreyra Head Shot Missed
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Corner Corner
Corner
88
Corner Corner
Corner
83
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Santiago Longo Right Footed Shot Blocked
82
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Passerini Right Footed Shot Saved
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Maximiliano Salas Left Footed Shot Missed
78
Update Update
On Santiago Longo，Off Adrian Guillermo Sanchez
78
Update Update
On Ramiro Hernandes，Off Emiliano Rigoni
77
Update Update
Offside
75
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Leonel Bucca Right Footed Shot Missed
68
Update Update
On Luciano Gomez，Off Luciano Sabato
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Diego Crego
67
Update Update
Offside
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Diego Crego
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Maximiliano Salas
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Ivan Villalba
60
Update Update
On Maximiliano Salas，Off Gonzalo Rios
60
Update Update
On Leonel Bucca，Off Jose Ignacio Florentin Bobadilla
60
Update Update
On Alex Adrian Arce Barrios，Off Kevin Alejandro Vazquez
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Ivan Villalba
56
Update Update
On Alex Adrian Arce Barrios，Off Kevin Alejandro Vazquez
55
Corner Corner
Corner
48
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Passerini Right Footed Shot Saved
46
Update Update
On Stefano Moreyra，Off Tomas Bottari
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Emiliano Rigoni Left Footed Shot Goal
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 2-0
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Bottari Head Shot Own Goal球
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Own Goal - Tomas Bottari 1-0
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Lucas Passerini 1-0
42
Corner Corner
Corner
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Emiliano Rigoni Right Footed Shot Blocked
38
Update Update
Offside
37
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Luciano Sabato Right Footed Shot Missed
34
Update Update
On Agustin Falcon，Off Leonardo Morales
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Francisco Gonzalez Metilli Left Footed Shot Missed
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Luciano Sabato
21
Corner Corner
Corner
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Diego Crego Left Footed Shot Missed
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Ivan Villalba Head Shot Blocked
19
Corner Corner
Corner
17
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Franco Vazquez Left Footed Shot Missed
17
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Emiliano Rigoni Left Footed Shot Blocked
9
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Lucas Passerini Head Shot Missed
7
Corner Corner
Corner
6
Update Update
Offside
5
Update Update
Offside
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Nazareno Arasa

CONCLUSION

The final 2-0 scoreline in favor of Belgrano highlighted how structural factors can override equal xG readings and the away side's stronger designation. A 1-0 halftime advantage provided the platform for controlled second-half execution without disciplinary interruptions. Both teams maintained near parity in possession and created comparable opportunities yet Belgrano converted decisive moments more effectively. This result illustrates the variance possible in matches where underlying numbers suggest parity. Independiente Rivadavia will review areas where their expected output failed to translate into goals while Belgrano can take confidence from overcoming statistical expectations through tactical discipline and timely interventions.