Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
BayArena Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Bayer 04 LeverkusenB04
Hamburger SVHSV
KICKOFF : Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at BayArena. Domestically, Bayer 04 Leverkusen sit 6th in the table while Hamburger SV are 11th. Power ranking favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen by 25.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bayer 04 Leverkusen hold a 25.3-point power score advantage and 6th place over Hamburger SV's 11th.
  • Form: Both teams enter with form scores of zero and no last outing data available.
  • Squad: Leverkusen's squad rates at 89.43 power compared to Hamburger SV's 64.11.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable as xG information is not enabled.
  • xVariable: xVariable metric is not provided for either team.
  • Market: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 73.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 15.3% (Δ+0%) | Hamburger SV 11.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 W
FC Köln Rank: 75 W
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 74 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 87 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 79 D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 7 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen
73.08%
Draw
15.34%
Away Hamburger SV
11.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.43
64.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
Power Score
89.43
64.11
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
14
86

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hamburger SV

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
M. Flekken
1 M. Flekken
R. Andrich
8 R. Andrich
J. Quansah
4 J. Quansah
E. Tapsoba
12 E. Tapsoba
M. Amare Culbreath
42 M. Amare Culbreath
E. Palacios
25 E. Palacios
A. García Serrano
24 A. García Serrano
A. Grimaldo García
20 A. Grimaldo García
I. Maza
30 I. Maza
E. Poku
19 E. Poku
P. Schick
14 P. Schick
D. Heuer Fernandes
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
W. Omari
17 W. Omari
L. Vušković
44 L. Vušković
N. Capaldo
24 N. Capaldo
A. Erlykke
23 A. Erlykke
A. Sambi Lokonga
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
21 N. Remberg
B. Jatta
18 B. Jatta
F. Ferreira Vieira
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Königsdörffer
11 R. Königsdörffer
O. Emerson Stange
49 O. Emerson Stange

General Information

Date & Time
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
BayArena
Capacity
30210
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
6.8
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Midfielder
7.13
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku Midfielder
6.83
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Midfielder
7.48
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Midfielder
6.68
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Centre Forward
7.08
4
Jarell Quansah
Jarell Quansah Centre Back
6.87
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Right Back
6.76
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Left Back
7.14
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Central Midfield
7.4
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Central Midfield
6.86

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.87
18
Bakery Jatta
Bakery Jatta Midfielder
6.62
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk Midfielder
7.09
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.72
49
Otto Stange
Otto Stange Attacker
6.54
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Attacking Midfield
7.15
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Central Midfield
6.87
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Left Back
6.66
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Central Midfield
6.91
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Right Back
6.81
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Centre Back
7.21

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 25.3-point edge. External projection is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 73.2%, draw 15.6%, and Hamburger SV 11.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.