BATE vs AF Elbasani preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Mehdi Hüseynzad? adina stadionu Thu, 16 Jul - 5:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Full Time: Finished on Penalties Thu, 16 Jul 5:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 1

CONTEXT

Match is finished. BATE 0–0 AF Elbasani. The match ended in a draw. BATE showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: BATE exhibited a significant deviation of 72.4 percent from pre-match positioning.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with pre-match benchmarks throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were recorded so alignment with expected goal metrics could not be determined.
  • Market alignment: The 0-0 draw outcome proved inconsistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG data prevented direct comparison against expected goal projections.
  • Event impact: The second leg finished 0-0 and left the aggregate score at 1-1.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so match dynamics experienced no red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Sakhi
D. Sakhi
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Vasyutin
S. Vasyutin
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Tergeusizov
S. Tergeusizov
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Chekhovskiy
G. Chekhovskiy
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
BATE V. Rogozhkin
V. Rogozhkin
VS
AF Elbasani I. Gvozdenovic
I. Gvozdenovic
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
AF Elbasani Rank: 45 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
BATE Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home BATE
28.47%
Draw
27.63%
Away AF Elbasani
43.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
BATE
+24.08%
Draw
-63.6%
AF Elbasani
+39.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
BATE
AF Elbasani
Power Score
23.33
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
BATE Opponent-weighted form score
AF Elbasani Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) BATE AF Elbasani

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

BATE

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

AF Elbasani

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

BATE ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AF Elbasani
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.50
33.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.50
29.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
BATE -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
AF Elbasani +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
BATE
AF Elbasani
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

BATE ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AF Elbasani
Created Set-piece attacking threat
BATE AF Elbasani
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
6.00 6.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
BATE AF Elbasani
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
6.00 6.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
BATE
AF Elbasani
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

BATE
vs
AF Elbasani
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
BATE AF Elbasani
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
BATE AF Elbasani
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
BATE
AF Elbasani
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAT had peak pressure around 93'.
  • ELB started the game with stronger pressure.
BAT Pressure ELB Pressure
Pressure Index: BAT reached the top pressure at 93' (52.04).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

BATE BAT Home
1 matches
AF Elbasani ELB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 1
Stadium
Mehdi Hüseynzad? adina stadionu
Capacity
10047
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniyar Sakhi
Sergey Vasyutin
Samat Tergeusizov
Georgiy Chekhovskiy

Statistics

Possession
BAT
48%
ELB
52%

Top Statistics

7 Shots 9
75 Dangerous attacks 115
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

166 Ball Safe 138
10 Goal Attempts 9
4 Substitutions 5
29 Throwins 25
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

152 Attacks 192

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Daniyar Sakhi

Starting XI

16
Danila Sokol
Danila Sokol Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Maksim Sakuta
Maksim Sakuta Defender
6.5
23
Nikolay Bochko
Nikolay Bochko Defender
6.5
10
Egor Rusakov
Egor Rusakov
Midfielder59'
6.5
25
Nikita Neskoromnyi
6.49
33
Artem Rakhmanov
6.5
7
Victorien Angban
Victorien Angban Midfielder
6.5
26
V. Varaksa
V. Varaksa Midfielder
6.45
13
Yaroslav Khramtsevich
Yaroslav Khramtsevich
Midfielder106'
6.5
28
Ivan Mikhnyuk
Ivan Mikhnyuk Midfielder
6.5
88
Pavel Dubovskiy
Pavel Dubovskiy
Defender82'
6.5
52
Egor Kress
Egor Kress Midfielder
6.5
55
Kirill Kaplenko
Kirill Kaplenko Midfielder
6.5
47
Ales Sakhonchik
Ales Sakhonchik
Midfielder46'
6.5
37
Erick Puerto
Erick Puerto Attacker
6.5
24
Vladislav Yatskevich
6.46
Referee : Daniyar Sakhi

Starting XI

24
Igor Aleksovski
Igor Aleksovski Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Bruno Lulaj
Bruno Lulaj (C) Defender
6.5
11
Klevis Kasa
Klevis Kasa Defender
6.5
15
Yoan Epitaux
Yoan Epitaux Defender
6.49
77
Bledar Lila
Bledar Lila Defender
6.5
10
Ardit Nikaj
Ardit Nikaj Midfielder
6.5
23
Edoly Lukoki
Edoly Lukoki
Attacker76'
6.5
14
Mario Barjamaj
Mario Barjamaj Midfielder
6.5
18
Arsen Kasa
Arsen Kasa
Midfielder95'
6.5
17
Abbas Ibrahim
Abbas Ibrahim Midfielder
6.5
25
Ledjo Tresa
Ledjo Tresa Midfielder
6.5
20
Bernard Karrica
Bernard Karrica
Midfielder95'
6.5
79
Ibrahima Diallo
Ibrahima Diallo Midfielder
6.45
70
Insa Boye
Insa Boye
Midfielder105+3'
6.5
9
Rubin Hebaj
Rubin Hebaj Attacker
6.5
22
Arsen Lleshi
Arsen Lleshi
Attacker76'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yaroslav Khramtsevich V. Varaksa
10th Substitution
106'
105+3'
Event
Insa Boye Ibrahima Diallo
9th Substitution
95'
Event
Bernard Karrica Ledjo Tresa
7th Substitution
95'
Event
Arsen Kasa Mario Barjamaj
8th Substitution
Event
Pavel Dubovskiy Ivan Mikhnyuk
6th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Arsen Lleshi Rubin Hebaj
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Edoly Lukoki Ardit Nikaj
5th Substitution
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Egor Rusakov Nikolay Bochko
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Vladislav Yatskevich Erick Puerto
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Ales Sakhonchik Kirill Kaplenko
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
17'
12'
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Off target
10'
Event
Goalkeeper save
9'
8'
7'
6'
Event
Scored
Event
Goalkeeper save
5'
4'
2'

Match Commentary

125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Yoan Epitaux. The score remains 5-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Yaroslav Khramtsevich scores, making it 5-4.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Bernard Karrica. The score remains 4-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Egor Kress scores, making it 4-4.
125
Update Update
The match ends in a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes and 120 minutes, with the penalty shootout finishing 5-4.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Yoan Epitaux. The score remains 5-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Yaroslav Khramtsevich scores, making it 5-4.
125
Update Update
Penalty miss by Bernard Karrica. The score remains 4-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Egor Kress scores a penalty, making it 4-4.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty Goal - Bledar Lila 3-4
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Egor Rusakov scores a penalty, making it 3-3.
125
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Insa Boye scores, making it 2-3.
111
Update Update
Match Ends!90Min[0-0],120Min[0-0],Penalty[5-4]
111
Update Update
Penalty miss by Yoan Epitaux. The score remains 5-4.
111
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Yaroslav Khramtsevich scores, bringing the shootout score to 5-4.
111
Update Update
Penalty miss! Bernard Karrica fails to convert, and the score remains 4-4.
110
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Egor Kress scores, bringing the score to 4-4.
110
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bledar Lila scores, making it 3-4.
108
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Egor Rusakov scores, making it 3-3.
108
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal! Insa Boye scores, making it 2-3.
108
Update Update
Penalty miss by Ales Sakhonchik. The score remains 2-2.
107
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bruno Lulaj scores, making it 2-2.
107
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Victorien Angban scores, bringing the tally to 2-1.
106
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Arsen Lleshi scores, making it 1-1.
105
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Penalty goal scored, making it 1-0.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
95
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
95
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Substitution Substitution
Yaroslav Khramtsevich is substituted for Vladislav Varaksa.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bernard Karrica comes on for Ledio Tresa.
77
Update Update
Arsen Kasa is on, and Mario Barjamaj is off.
76
Update Update
Match ends in a 0-0 draw.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Substitution Substitution
Pavel Dubovskiy is substituted for Ivan Mikhnyuk.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahima Diallo receives a yellow card.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Arsen Lleshi comes on for Rubin Hebaj.
58
Substitution Substitution
Edoly Lukoki Mateso is substituted off for Ardit Nikaj.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Update Update
Egor Rusakov is on, and Nikolay Bochko is off.
25
Update Update
Andrey Zhurin comes on for Erick Puerto.
25
Update Update
Ales Sakhonchik is on, and Kirill Kaplenko is off.
25
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 0-0.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoan Epitaux receives a yellow card.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniyar Sakhi.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: BATE 0-0 AF Elbasani. Structural assessment: BATE exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.