Baltika Kaliningrad vs Rubin Kazan preview

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
0 1
Rubin Kazan RKA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 1:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mirlind Daku - 29'
E. Ćivić 76' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Baltika Kaliningrad faced Rubin Kazan in a Russian Premier League clash, suffering a 0-1 home defeat. The visitors struck first in the opening half, leading 0-1 at halftime, a margin they preserved through resolute defending. Baltika dominated possession with 54% but faltered after receiving a red card, reducing them to 10 men and distorting second-half play. Rubin Kazan, pre-designated as the stronger team, exploited the advantage to claim victory without conceding. This result marked a significant 100% structural deviation favoring Rubin Kazan, aligning with market expectations despite absent xG data. Baltika's extra possession failed to yield chances, underscoring Rubin's defensive efficiency and tactical discipline in a match defined by disciplinary events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant 100% structural deviation favoring Rubin Kazan.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Home red card created major event impact on proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion drove second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Bobrovskiy
Y. Bobrovskiy
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 27.39
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.71
D. Ermakov
D. Ermakov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 27.39
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.71
A. Sagdiev
A. Sagdiev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 27.39
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.71
A. Shiryaev
A. Shiryaev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 27.39
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.71
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
VS
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.54
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 54 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
Krasnodar Rank: 76 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 D
Sochi Rank: 51 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 W
Akron Rank: 53 D
Orenburg Rank: 52 D
Sochi Rank: 51 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 58 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rubin Kazan
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.09
64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rubin Kazan
Power Score
55.09
64
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
339
361

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad Rubin Kazan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.13
17.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.07
27.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +1.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Rubin Kazan -1.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rubin Kazan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rubin Kazan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Baltika Kaliningrad
vs
Rubin Kazan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Baltika Kaliningrad Rubin Kazan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.23
Rubin Kazan 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Rubin Kazan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.03
Rubin Kazan 0.00
Baltika Kaliningrad
Rubin Kazan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 63'.
  • Baltika Kaliningrad started the game with stronger pressure.
Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure RKA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 63' (71.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
Rubin Kazan RKA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
E. Lyubakov
Russia
44 E. Lyubakov
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
N. Gassama
Substitution
France
4 N. Gassama
E. Ćivić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
77 E. Ćivić
M. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
73 M. Petrov
A. Mendel
Substitution
Russia
8 A. Mendel
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
Y. Kovalev
Substitution
Belarus
11 Y. Kovalev
C. Nnamdi
Nigeria
90 C. Nnamdi
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
D. Maldonado Munguía
Honduras
3 D. Maldonado Munguía
E. Teslenko
Russia
2 E. Teslenko
N. Lobov
Substitution
Russia
98 N. Lobov
K. Nizhegorodov
Russia
4 K. Nizhegorodov
I. Saavedra Pino
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
V. Hodža
Substitution
Croatia
22 V. Hodža
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
I. Rozhkov
Substitution
Russia
51 I. Rozhkov
M. Daku
Substitution
Albania
10 M. Daku
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity
35212
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yan Bobrovskiy
Dmitri Ermakov
Artur Sagdiev
Aleksey Shiryaev

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
52%
RKA
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
6 Shots 1
53 Dangerous attacks 37
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 10
4 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Goal Kicks 9
24 Throwins 28
32 Successful Headers 34
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
0 Assists 1
76 Ball Safe 83
5 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 7

Attacking

85 Attacks 86

Possession

66 Successful Passes Percentage 55
73 Long Passes 89
208 Successful Passes 153
315 Passes 276
29 Successful Long Passes 29
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

8 Tackles 16
56 Duels Won 72
10 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 2

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
20 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

20 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy

Starting XI ▼

44
Egor Lyubakov
Egor Lyubakov Goalkeeper
6.75
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
6.85
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
7.06
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson
Defender85'
6.36
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
7.1
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Defender
6.88
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić Defender
6.71
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel Midfielder
6.8
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov
Midfielder46'
6.87
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
6.86
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne
Attacker62'
6.55
11
Yuriy Kovalev
Yuriy Kovalev Midfielder
6.54
42
Vladislav Pospelov
Vladislav Pospelov
Midfielder62'
6.73
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Midfielder
7.1
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov
Defender46'
6.92
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor Attacker
6.67
Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
6.9
2
Egor Teslenko
Egor Teslenko Defender
6.93
3
Denil Maldonado
Denil Maldonado Defender
6.77
98
Nikita Lobov
Nikita Lobov Defender
6.83
27
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Aleksey Gritsaenko
Defender89'
6.78
4
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Konstantin Nizhegorodov Midfielder
6.73
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
6.82
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
6.9
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Midfielder
6.75
44
Daniil Kuznetsov
Daniil Kuznetsov
Midfielder89'
6.6
10
Mirlind Daku
Mirlind Daku Attacker
6.92
43
Jacques Siwe
Jacques Siwe
Attacker79'
6.75
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
7.04
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov
Defender63'
6.65
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov Attacker
6.73
14
Daler Kuzyaev
Daler Kuzyaev
Midfielder79'
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Ignacio Saavedra
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Nikolai Titkov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
89'
Event
Aleksey Gritsaenko → Nikita Lobov
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Veldin Hodza
10th Substitution
Event
Eduardo Anderson → Nathan Gassama
8th Substitution
85'
79'
Event
Daler Kuzyaev → Ilya Rozhkov
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Jacques Siwe → Mirlind Daku
7th Substitution
Event
E. Ćivić
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
76'
63'
Event
Ruslan Bezrukov → Nazmi Gripshi
5th Substitution
Event
Vladislav Pospelov → Yuriy Kovalev
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
T. Yenne → Ilya Petrov
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Yuriy Kovalev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
47'
Event
Ilya Rozhkov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ivan Belikov → Maksim Petrov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Nikolai Titkov → Andrey Mendel
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Mirlind Daku
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Belikov attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Belikov attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Belikov attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ignacio Saavedra's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Vladislav Pospelov takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Update Update
Daniil Kuznetsov is on, and Veldin Hodza is off.
89
Update Update
Aleksey Gritsaenko comes on for Nikita Lobov.
85
Update Update
Eduardo Anderson replaces Nathan Gassama.
79
Update Update
Daler Kuzyaev comes on for Ilya Rozhkov.
79
Update Update
Jacques Siwe is on, and Mirlind Daku is off.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Belikov comes on for Maksim Petrov.
46
Update Update
Nikolai Titkov is on, and Andrey Mendel is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Chinonso Offor takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Mirlind Daku takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Anderson Arroyo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Mirlind Daku takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
16
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Nizhegorodov attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Mingiyan Beveev took a right-footed shot but missed.
12
Attempt Attempt
Mingiyan Beveev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Eldar Civic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Chinonso Offor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Ruslan Bezrukov comes on for Nazmi Gripshi.
62
Update Update
Tenton Yenne comes on for Ilya Petrov.
62
Substitution Substitution
Vladislav Pospelov is substituted for Yuri Kovalev.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Belikov attempted a header but missed the shot.
71
Update Update
Vladislav Pospelov attempts a header but misses the target.
58
Attempt Attempt
Eldar Civic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Red Card Red Card Important
Eldar Civic receives a red card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Eldar Civic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Rubin Kazan's 0-1 win over Baltika Kaliningrad highlighted their edge as the stronger team, capitalizing on an early goal and Baltika's red card. The halftime lead of 0-1 stood firm, with 54% home possession ineffective against visitor resilience. Structural deviation was significant at 100%, market alignment held true, and efficiency stayed in line, though xG absence limits precision. The red card distorted dynamics, enabling Rubin to control proceedings. This result boosts Rubin Kazan's standing while exposing Baltika's vulnerability to key events and discipline lapses, setting narratives for upcoming fixtures.