Baltika Kaliningrad vs Akron preview

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
0 1
Akron Akron
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
|
Goal
Benchimol - 54'

CONTEXT

Baltika Kaliningrad, deemed the stronger team entering the match, dominated possession with 64% control but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat to Akron. The visitors, holding just 36% of the ball, executed a clinical counter-attack strategy that paid dividends in the second half, following a goalless first period at 0-0 halftime. Baltika pressed relentlessly yet struggled to breach Akron's resolute defense, which absorbed pressure and struck decisively. This outcome highlights Akron's efficiency in limited opportunities against Baltika's profligacy despite territorial superiority. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing the game to flow naturally without disciplinary distortions. The result underscores tactical discipline trumping possession stats in this encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Akron's 1-0 win showed a 100% deviation from expectations, rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to absent underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Tanashev
I. Tanashev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 25.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
R. Mukhtarov
R. Mukhtarov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 25.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
A. Khatuev
A. Khatuev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 25.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
Y. Matveev
Y. Matveev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 25.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.6
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.64
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
VS
Akron Z. Tedeev
Z. Tedeev
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
Krasnodar Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Sochi Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akron
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.61
15.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
Akron
Power Score
27.61
15.11
League Position
5
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Akron — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad Akron

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akron

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akron
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.66
31.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.39
22.66
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad -1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Akron +1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Akron
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akron
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad Akron
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Akron
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Akron
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Baltika Kaliningrad
vs
Akron
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Baltika Kaliningrad Akron
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.16
Akron 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Akron
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.02
Akron 0.00
Baltika Kaliningrad
Akron
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Akron had peak pressure around 12'.
  • Akron started the game with stronger pressure.
Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure Akron Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Akron reached the top pressure at 12' (64.05).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
1 matches
Akron Akron Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:02:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
I. Kukushkin
Russia
81 I. Kukushkin
M. Beveev
Substitution
Russia
23 M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
A. Filin
Substitution
Russia
25 A. Filin
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
N. Titkov
Substitution
Russia
22 N. Titkov
I. Belikov
Substitution
26 I. Belikov
T. Yenne
Substitution
Nigeria
15 T. Yenne
M. Petrov
Russia
73 M. Petrov
D. Severino Lacerda
Brazil
18 D. Severino Lacerda
V. Gudiev
Russia
88 V. Gudiev
R. Fernández Toro
Bolivia
21 R. Fernández Toro
I. Nedelcearu
Romania
24 I. Nedelcearu
J. Pereira Escoval
Portugal
26 J. Pereira Escoval
D. Pestryakov
Russia
71 D. Pestryakov
I. Đakovac
Substitution
Serbia
35 I. Đakovac
K. Khosonov
Substitution
Russia
80 K. Khosonov
K. Maradishvili
Substitution
Russia
8 K. Maradishvili
M. Boldyrev
Substitution
Russia
91 M. Boldyrev
A. Dzyuba
Russia
22 A. Dzyuba
G. Benchimol Tavares
Cape Verde
11 G. Benchimol Tavares

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity
35212
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Inal Tanashev
Rustam Mukhtarov
Adlan Khatuev
Yuri Matveev

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
59%
Akron
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
1 Shots 1
70 Dangerous attacks 46
64 Possession 36
3 Corners 0
8 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
95 Ball Safe 80
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 2
9 Goal Attempts 4
27 Throwins 27
21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
14 Dribble Attempts 15
24 Successful Headers 28
3 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 11

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
119 Attacks 76

Possession

32 Successful Long Passes 19
67 Successful Passes Percentage 47
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
403 Passes 233
82 Long Passes 74
271 Successful Passes 110

Defensive

0 Saves 1
8 Interceptions 8
40 Duels Won 72
11 Tackles 18

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
22 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
19 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

81
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper
6.5
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
6.85
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
7.06
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
7.1
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Defender
6.88
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel
Midfielder68'
6.8
25
Aleksandr Filin
Aleksandr Filin Defender
7.01
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson
Defender46'
6.36
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne Midfielder
6.55
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker60'
6.67
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Midfielder
6.87
5
Aymane Mourid
Aymane Mourid
Midfielder68'
6.61
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov Midfielder
6.92
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender68'
6.62
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Midfielder
7.1
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda Attacker
6.91
Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

88
Vitaliy Gudiev
Vitaliy Gudiev Goalkeeper
7.11
21
Roberto Fernández
Roberto Fernández Defender
6.79
24
Ionuț Nedelcearu
Ionuț Nedelcearu Defender
6.53
26
Rodrigo Escoval
Rodrigo Escoval Defender
6.4
71
Dmitriy Pestryakov
Dmitriy Pestryakov Defender
6.83
8
Konstantin Maradishvili
Konstantin Maradishvili Midfielder
6.52
5
Aleksa Djurasovic
Aleksa Djurasovic
Midfielder74'
6.6
35
Ifet Djakovac
Ifet Djakovac Midfielder
6.59
6
Maksim Kuzmin
Maksim Kuzmin
Midfielder79'
6.63
80
Khetag Khosonov
Khetag Khosonov Midfielder
6.66
81
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Attacker90+3'
6.67
11
Benchimol
Benchimol Attacker
6.79
22
Artem Dzyuba
Artem Dzyuba Attacker
7.24
91
Maksim Boldyrev
Maksim Boldyrev Attacker
6.85
15
Stefan Loncar
Stefan Loncar
Midfielder46'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
<TBD>
6th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Vitaliy Gudiev
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nikita Bazilevskiy → Khetag Khosonov
9th Substitution
Event
Maksim Petrov
Penalty disallowed
88'
83'
Event
Ionuț Nedelcearu
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Eduardo Anderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
79'
Event
Maksim Kuzmin → Ifet Djakovac
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Aleksa Djurasovic → Konstantin Maradishvili
7th Substitution
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → Ivan Belikov
6th Substitution
68'
Event
Andrey Mendel → Mingiyan Beveev
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Aymane Mourid → Nikolai Titkov
5th Substitution
68'
67'
Event
Benchimol
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Chinonso Offor → T. Yenne
3rd Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Benchimol
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Eduardo Anderson → Aleksandr Filin
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Stefan Loncar → Maksim Boldyrev
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
Benchimol
Goal disallowed

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Akron exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.