Bahia vs Corinthians preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena Fonte Nova Today - 7:00 PM
Serie A
Bahia BAH
Corinthians CTH
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Round 20 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bahia host Corinthians in Serie A (Regular Season) at Arena Fonte Nova. Domestically, Bahia sit 6th in the table while Corinthians are 7th. Power ranking favours Corinthians by 4.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Corinthians hold a +4.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Corinthians sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Bahia show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Corinthians have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Corinthians carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Corinthians hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Bahia 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Corinthians 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Bahia R. Mücke Ceni
R. Mücke Ceni
VS
Corinthians F. Diniz Silva
F. Diniz Silva
1.58
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 63 D
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Botafogo Rank: 68 W
Coritiba Rank: 59 L
Grêmio Rank: 62 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo Rank: 58 W
Grêmio Rank: 62 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 64 W
Botafogo Rank: 68 L
São Paulo Rank: 62 W
Mirassol Rank: 66 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bahia
0%
Draw
0%
Away Corinthians
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.55
67.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bahia
Corinthians
Power Score
62.55
67.44
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
465
320

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bahia — Opponent-weighted form score
Corinthians — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bahia Corinthians

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bahia BAH Home
5 matches
Corinthians CTH Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-26T00:09:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
R. de Oliveira Strada
1 R. de Oliveira Strada
R. Gómez
31 R. Gómez
D. de Duarte Macedo
33 D. de Duarte Macedo
M. Ferreira da Silva
44 M. Ferreira da Silva
Luciano
46 Luciano
N. Acevedo Tabárez
5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
E. Conrado Carvalho
14 E. Conrado Carvalho
R. Bertalia
11 R. Bertalia
A. da Silva Santos Junior
7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
W. da Silva
12 W. da Silva
E. da Costa Farias
16 E. da Costa Farias
H. de Souza Nogueira
1 H. de Souza Nogueira
M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
G. Vernes
13 G. Vernes
G. de Abreu
3 G. de Abreu
M. França Silva
2 M. França Silva
B. de Souza Bidon
7 B. de Souza Bidon
A. Santos Dias
49 A. Santos Dias
R. Almeida Melo
14 R. Almeida Melo
R. Garro
8 R. Garro
Y. Monteiro da Silva
9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
K. Andrade Lima
37 K. Andrade Lima

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Fonte Nova
Capacity
48902
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ramon Abatti
Alex dos Santos
Henrique Neu Ribeiro
Julio Cesar Pfleger

Expected Lineup

Referee : Ramon Abatti

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Goalkeeper
7.06
7
Ademir
Ademir Attacker
6.88
12
Willian José
Willian José Centre Forward
6.73
16
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga Attacker
6.82
5
Nicolás Acevedo
Nicolás Acevedo Central Midfield
6.95
11
Rodrigo Nestor
Rodrigo Nestor Central Midfield
6.99
14
Erick
Erick Central Midfield
6.85
31
Román Gómez
Román Gómez Right Back
7.09
33
David Duarte
David Duarte Right Back
7
44
Marcos Victor
Marcos Victor Left Back
6.65
46
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba Left Back
7.26
Referee : Ramon Abatti

Starting XI ▼

1
Hugo Souza
Hugo Souza Goalkeeper
6.73
9
Yuri Alberto
Yuri Alberto Attacker
6.98
37
Kaio César
Kaio César Attacker
7.21
2
Matheuzinho
Matheuzinho Right Back
6.88
3
Gabriel Paulista
Gabriel Paulista Right Back
6.99
7
Breno Bidon
Breno Bidon Central Midfield
6.92
8
Rodrigo Garro
Rodrigo Garro Attacking Midfield
7.27
13
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique Left Back
6.93
49
André Luiz Santos Dias
André Luiz Santos Dias Central Midfield
6.64
21
Matheus Bidu
Matheus Bidu Left Back
6.97
14
Raniele
Raniele Central Midfield
6.89

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Corinthians holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Corinthians a 4.9-point edge. Projection probabilities are unavailable or insufficient in the available data for this fixture. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.