Bahia vs Corinthians preview
2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena Fonte Nova
Round 20 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 27
CONTEXT
Bahia hosted Corinthians in a match that ended 1-1. Both teams scored once in the opening half to reach a 1-1 halftime score. Bahia controlled 60 percent of possession while Corinthians held 40 percent. Expected goals favored Bahia at 0.67 against Corinthians 0.34 for a differential of 0.33. Corinthians entered as the stronger side yet the draw proved consistent with the xG figures. No red cards were shown to either team. The significant deviation recorded for Corinthians did not alter the final outcome. Efficiency metrics remained in line with the observed performance levels throughout the contest.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Corinthians showed a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in their performance.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the expected outcomes for both teams.
-
xG alignment: The match outcome was consistent with the xG values of 0.67 for Bahia and 0.34 for Corinthians.
-
Market alignment: The result was aligned with market expectations despite the deviation level.
-
xG expectations: Bahia exceeded xG expectations while Corinthians fell short in the draw.
-
Event impact: The even halftime score of 1-1 carried through to the final 1-1 result.
-
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Abatti
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
30.4
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
4
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0.36
League Avg
0
A. dos Santos
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
H. Ribeiro
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
J. Pfleger
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
1.58
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.42
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Mineiro
Rank: 63
D
Chapecoense
Rank: 53
W
Botafogo
Rank: 69
W
Coritiba
Rank: 60
L
Grêmio
Rank: 63
D
Cruzeiro
Rank: 68
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo
Rank: 58
W
Grêmio
Rank: 63
W
Atlético Mineiro
Rank: 64
W
Botafogo
Rank: 69
L
São Paulo
Rank: 63
W
Mirassol
Rank: 66
L
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.15
67.88
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bahia
Corinthians
Power Score
63.15
67.88
League Position
6
8
Global Rank
460
323
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Bahia
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Corinthians
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Bahia Corinthians
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Bahia
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Corinthians
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bahia
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Corinthians
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.63
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Bahia
+0.97
Efficiency Index
vs
Corinthians
-0.97
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bahia
Corinthians
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Bahia
vs
Corinthians
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Bahia
Corinthians
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
50%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.34
vs
-0.03
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Bahia
Corinthians
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
9%
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.03
vs
-0.34
Bahia
Corinthians
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Bahia
vs
Corinthians
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Bahia
Corinthians
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Bahia
0.23
Corinthians
0.29
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bahia
Corinthians
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Bahia
0.06
Corinthians
0.02
Bahia
Corinthians
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- BAH had peak pressure around 50'.
- BAH started the game with stronger pressure.
BAH Pressure
CTH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
BAH reached the top pressure at 50' (78.53).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Bahia
BAH
Home
5
matches
Corinthians
CTH
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:04:51+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-1-4-2
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
General Information
Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 20 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Fonte Nova
Capacity
48902
Attendance
44576
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ramon Abatti
Alex dos Santos
Henrique Neu Ribeiro
Julio Cesar Pfleger
Next Match
Bahia
vs
Fluminense
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Thu, 30 Jul - 12:30 AM
Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
Corinthians
vs
Athletico PR
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Thu, 30 Jul - 10:30 PM
Venue: Arena Corinthians
Statistics
Possession
BAH
58%
CTH
42%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
1
8
Shots
1
57
Dangerous attacks
17
60
Possession
40
7
Corners
2
18
Free kicks
17
2
Yellow Cards
5
Match Overview
100
Ball Safe
93
3
Goal Kicks
12
7
Goal Attempts
3
5
Substitutions
5
20
Throwins
15
5
Successful Headers
13
1
Assists
1
0
Injuries
4
26
Dribble Attempts
8
11
Successful Dribbles
4
42
Successful Dribbles Percentage
50
Attacking
93
Attacks
63
Possession
51
Long Passes
37
472
Passes
321
414
Successful Passes
258
88
Successful Passes Percentage
80
8
Key Passes
3
20
Successful Long Passes
15
39
Successful Long Passes Percentage
41
Defensive
1
Saves
1
15
Tackles
21
6
Interceptions
4
48
Duels Won
56
Build-up
23
Total Crosses
4
5
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
2
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
18
Lineup
Referee :
Ramon Abatti
Manager ▼
R. Mücke Ceni
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
17
Guido Herrera
Goalkeeper
4
Kanu
Defender
44
Marcos Victor
Defender
15
Michel Araújo
Midfielder
63
David Martins Almeida de Lira
Midfielder
27
Everaldo
Attacker
77
Ruan Pablo
Attacker
Referee :
Ramon Abatti
Manager ▼
F. Diniz Silva
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
4
Tchoca
Defender
5
André Ramalho
Defender
35
Charles
Midfielder
61
Dieguinho
Midfielder
77
Jesse Lingard
Midfielder
18
Pedro Raul
Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+6'
Roughing / 7th Yellowcard
89'
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
10th Substitution
86'
85'
9th Substitution
8th Substitution
77'
77'
6th Substitution
77'
7th Substitution
70'
5th Substitution
1st Substitution
69'
2nd Substitution
69'
3rd Substitution
69'
69'
4th Substitution
67'
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Rogério Ceni
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
45+9'
Header / 2nd Goal
45+4'
35'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
28'
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
16'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Goal disallowed
12'
8'
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
The 1-1 draw between Bahia and Corinthians reflected the underlying xG distribution and possession balance. Bahia generated the higher expected goals total yet could not convert the advantage into a win. Corinthians absorbed pressure without conceding further after the opening period. Absence of red cards allowed both sides to maintain their intended structures for the full ninety minutes. The outcome aligned with the pre-match assessment of a closely contested fixture. Efficiency readings confirmed that neither side deviated markedly from their typical conversion rates. Overall the metrics supported the final scoreline without requiring additional adjustments for external factors.
Match Commentary