Bahia vs Chapecoense preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena Fonte Nova
Serie A
BahiaBAH
2 0
ChapecoenseACF
Full Time
Round 4 Regular Season
Rodrigo Nestor - 12' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense. The result saw Bahia take the points. Bahia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Bahia 1.7 – 0.6 Chapecoense. Possession was 65%–35%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense. Bahia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Zanovelli
P. Zanovelli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Ziolli
D. Ziolli
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Costa
L. Costa
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Willers Lorenzatto
L. Willers Lorenzatto
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Bahia R. Mücke Ceni
R. Mücke Ceni
VS
Chapecoense R. dos Santos Lacerda
R. dos Santos Lacerda
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.53
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Botafogo Rank: 67 W
Coritiba Rank: 59 L
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
Santos Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palmeiras Rank: 76 L
Cruzeiro Rank: 68 L
Remo Rank: 57 L
Mirassol Rank: 65 D
Bragantino Rank: 64 L
Fluminense Rank: 68 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.38
45.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bahia
Chapecoense
Power Score
61.38
45.47
League Position
6
20
Global Rank
496
746

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bahia — Opponent-weighted form score
Chapecoense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bahia Chapecoense

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bahia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Chapecoense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bahia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chapecoense
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.39
14.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.84
22.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bahia +0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Chapecoense -0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bahia
Chapecoense
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bahia
vs
Chapecoense
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bahia Chapecoense
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
62%
54%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.04 vs -0.34
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bahia Chapecoense
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
54%
62%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.34 vs -0.04
Bahia
Chapecoense
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bahia
vs
Chapecoense
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bahia Chapecoense
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bahia 0.27
Chapecoense 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bahia Chapecoense
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bahia 0.00
Chapecoense 0.04
Bahia
Chapecoense
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAH had peak pressure around 13'.
  • BAH started the game with stronger pressure.
BAH Pressure ACF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAH reached the top pressure at 13' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena Fonte Nova
Capacity
48902
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli
Daniel Paulo Ziolli
Luis Costa
Leonardo Willers Lorenzatto

Statistics

Possession
BAH
62%
ACF
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 5
61 Dangerous attacks 26
65 Possession 35
10 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

55 Ball Safe 39
1 Penalties 0
3 Goal Kicks 6
10 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 7
17 Throwins 9
4 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1
22 Dribble Attempts 9
12 Successful Dribbles 4
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44

Attacking

101 Attacks 55
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

36 Long Passes 35
504 Passes 267
461 Successful Passes 221
91 Successful Passes Percentage 83
12 Key Passes 6
19 Successful Long Passes 16
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

2 Saves 4
13 Tackles 17
7 Interceptions 6
53 Duels Won 53

Build-up

32 Total Crosses 19
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Paulo Cesar Zanovelli

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Goalkeeper
6.93
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
Santiago Ramos Mingo Defender
7.19
31
Román Gómez
Román Gómez Defender
7.44
33
David Duarte
David Duarte Defender
7.21
44
Marcos Victor
Marcos Victor
Defender87'
66
Zé Guilherme
Zé Guilherme Defender
7.17
5
Nicolás Acevedo
Nicolás Acevedo Midfielder
6.81
11
Rodrigo Nestor
Rodrigo Nestor Midfielder
7.68
6
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
Midfielder79'
14
Erick
Erick (C) Midfielder
6.96
7
Ademir
Ademir Attacker
6.84
57
Kauê Junior Furquim da Silva
Kauê Junior Furquim da Silva
Midfielder67'
12
Willian José
Willian José Attacker
6.6
10
Everton Ribeiro
Everton Ribeiro
Midfielder67'
16
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga Attacker
7.13
27
Everaldo
Everaldo
Attacker80'
Referee : Paulo Cesar Zanovelli

Starting XI ▼

30
Matheus Aurélio
Matheus Aurélio Goalkeeper
6.55
2
Marcos Vinícius
Marcos Vinícius Defender
6.35
26
Everton
Everton
Defender63'
3
Doma
Doma Defender
6.49
15
Rafael Thyere
Rafael Thyere (C) Defender
6.76
91
Bruno Pacheco
Bruno Pacheco Defender
6.14
7
Marcinho
Marcinho Midfielder
6.1
70
Rubens
Rubens
Midfielder63'
10
Giovanni Augusto
Giovanni Augusto Midfielder
6.49
16
Bruno Matias
Bruno Matias Midfielder
6.07
—
Bruno Matias 
46'
27
Camilo
Camilo Midfielder
6.49
19
David Antunes
David Antunes
Midfielder81'
97
Ênio
Ênio Midfielder
6.24
18
Neto Pessoa
Neto Pessoa
Attacker46'
6.62
11
Yannick Bolasie
Yannick Bolasie Attacker
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marcos Victor → David Duarte
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Luciano Juba
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
83'
81'
Event
David Antunes → Camilo
9th Substitution
Event
Everaldo → Erick Pulga
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Jean Lucas → Rodrigo Nestor
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Kauê Junior Furquim da Silva → Ademir
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Everton Ribeiro   → Willian José 
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Zé Guilherme
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
64'
63'
Event
Everton → Marcos Vinícius
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Rubens → Marcinho
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Vinicius Balieiro → Bruno Matias 
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Neto Pessoa → Ênio
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Román Gómez
Header / 1st Goal
34'
Event
Rodrigo Nestor
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
12'
Event
Erick Pulga
Penalty awarded
9'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Everton had a shot on goal, but it was missed.
90
Update Update
Offside.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Luciano Batista da Silva Junior.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kauê Furquim takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Thyere de Albuquerque Marques takes a header shot but misses.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
Marcos Victor Ferreira da Silva comes on for David de Duarte Macedo.
81
Attempt Attempt
Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
David Antunes is on, and Camilo is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
David de Duarte Macedo attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Update Update
Everaldo Stum replaces Erick Da Costa Farias.
79
Update Update
Jean Lucas De Souza Oliveira replaces Rodrigo Nestor.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Attempt Attempt
Altemir Cordeiro Pessoa Neto takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Acevedo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Bolasie attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Augusto de Barros Ribeiro comes on for Willian Jose.
67
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Bolasie attempts a header but misses the shot.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ze Guilherme.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Marcos Vinicius Da Silva Santos is off.
63
Update Update
Rubens Ricoldi is on, and Marcinho is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Ze Guilherme's left-footed shot is saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
Camilo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Altemir Cordeiro Pessoa Neto comes on for Sebastiao Enio Santos de Almeida.
46
Update Update
On, Vinicius Balieiro Lourenco Carvalho; Off, Bruno Matias dos Santos.
45
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Bolasie takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Roman Gomez takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Roman Gomez scores, making it 2-0.
30
Attempt Attempt
Yannick Bolasie attempts a header but misses the shot.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Attempt Attempt
David de Duarte Macedo attempts a header but misses the shot.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Attempt Attempt
Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Roman Gomez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Update Update
Offside.
17
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ramos Mingo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Rodrigo Nestor scores with a left-footed shot.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Rodrigo Nestor scores, making it 1-0.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Attempt Attempt
Marcinho takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Roman Gomez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Erick Da Costa Farias takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Paulo Cesar Zanovelli.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Bahia 2-0 Chapecoense. Structural assessment: Bahia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.