Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena MRV
Serie A
Atlético MineiroAMN
3 0
GrêmioGRE
Full Time
Round 23 Regular Season
Vitor Hugo  - 19'
Tomás Cuello - 62', 66'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Atlético Mineiro delivered a commanding performance to defeat Grêmio 3-0 in their recent encounter. Starting strongly, the home side found the net once before the break to lead 1-0 at halftime. Their overall expected goals stood at 2.51 compared to the visitors' 0.49, underscoring their superiority in creating chances. Despite possession being split almost evenly at 51 percent to 49 percent, Atlético Mineiro converted their opportunities efficiently to secure the clean sheet victory. Grêmio failed to mount a significant challenge, resulting in a straightforward win for the stronger team. The absence of any dismissals allowed the game to proceed without interruptions from disciplinary actions. This outcome aligned well with the pre-match assessments of team strengths and capabilities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atlético Mineiro exhibited a significant structural deviation from pre-match patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected team outputs.
  • xG alignment: The result aligned with home xG of 2.51 and away xG of 0.49.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were fulfilled by the stronger team's dominance.
  • Event impact: Key events produced the 3-0 scoreline without major disruptions.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so there was no red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Arleu de Araujo
B. Arleu de Araujo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Henrique Correa
R. Henrique Correa
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Neto Correa Farinha
T. Neto Correa Farinha
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Alves Júnior
P. Alves Júnior
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Atlético Mineiro E. Domínguez
E. Domínguez
VS
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo Rank: 58 D
Bragantino Rank: 65 D
Palmeiras Rank: 78 W
Bahia Rank: 63 D
Vasco da Gama Rank: 62 W
Corinthians Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Fluminense Rank: 69 D
Mirassol Rank: 63 L
Corinthians Rank: 68 L
Santos Rank: 63 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 3
3

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.4
63.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
Power Score
65.4
63.32
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
390
458

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Mineiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Mineiro Grêmio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Mineiro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grêmio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Mineiro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grêmio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.31
22.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.35
34.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Mineiro +0.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Grêmio -0.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Mineiro
vs
Grêmio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Mineiro Grêmio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
27%
52%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.68 vs -0.26
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Mineiro Grêmio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
52%
27%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.26 vs -0.68
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Mineiro
vs
Grêmio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Mineiro Grêmio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Mineiro 0.30
Grêmio 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Mineiro Grêmio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Mineiro 0.00
Grêmio 0.06
Atlético Mineiro
Grêmio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AMN had peak pressure around 83'.
  • AMN started the game with stronger pressure.
AMN Pressure GRE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AMN reached the top pressure at 83' (78.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Mineiro AMN Home
5 matches
Grêmio GRE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
8
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-17T00:13:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena MRV
Capacity
44892
Attendance
30126
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Rodrigo Figueiredo Henrique Correa
Thiago Henrique Neto Correa Farinha
Paulo Roberto Alves Júnior

Statistics

Possession
AMN
53%
GRE
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 4
50 Dangerous attacks 39
51 Possession 49
8 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

77 Ball Safe 70
5 Goal Kicks 5
9 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
22 Throwins 15
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Successful Headers 8
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 1
8 Dribble Attempts 9
3 Successful Dribbles 3
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

Attacking

95 Attacks 84
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

44 Long Passes 41
480 Passes 465
435 Successful Passes 422
91 Successful Passes Percentage 91
11 Key Passes 3
28 Successful Long Passes 19
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

1 Saves 2
14 Tackles 11
7 Interceptions 9
38 Duels Won 36

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 18
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

22
Everson
Everson (C) Goalkeeper
7.36
4
Ruan
Ruan Defender
7.14
6
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi Defender
7.66
14
Vitor Hugo
Vitor Hugo Defender
7.52
23
Angelo Preciado
Angelo Preciado Defender
6.95
17
Igor Gomes
Igor Gomes Midfielder
7.08
11
Bernard
Bernard
Midfielder31'
6.95
21
Alan Franco
Alan Franco Midfielder
6.65
8
Maycon
Maycon
Midfielder61'
6.86
28
Tomás Cuello
Tomás Cuello Midfielder
2
9.68
92
Dudu
Dudu
Attacker81'
6.56
30
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo Midfielder
6.45
27
Alan Minda
Alan Minda
Attacker81'
6.6
39
Mamady Cissé
Mamady Cissé Midfielder
6.99
15
Kevin Castaño
Kevin Castaño
Midfielder61'
6.82
9
Mateo Cassierra
Mateo Cassierra Attacker
6.59
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Weverton
Weverton Goalkeeper
6.22
6
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins Defender
6.65
4
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann
Defender46'
6.57
27
Diego Caito
Diego Caito Defender
6.55
54
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel Defender
6.07
38
Caio Paulista
Caio Paulista
Defender76'
6.54
82
Wallace
Wallace Defender
6.45
5
Juan Nardoni
Juan Nardoni Midfielder
6.41
10
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic
Midfielder46'
6.57
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón Midfielder
6.53
21
Tetê
Tetê
Attacker46'
7.02
8
Erick Noriega
Erick Noriega Midfielder
6.85
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Midfielder
6.57
17
Dodi
Dodi Midfielder
5.93
37
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec
Attacker63'
6.44
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius (C) Attacker
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dudu → Tomás Cuello
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Alan Minda → Victor Hugo
10th Substitution
81'
76'
Event
Caio Paulista → Pedro Gabriel
8th Substitution
69'
Event
Pedro Gabriel
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Tomás Cuello
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
66'
63'
Event
Gabriel Mec → Dodi
7th Substitution
Event
Tomás Cuello
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Kevin Castaño → Mamady Cissé 
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Maycon  → Alan Franco
6th Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Walter Kannemann 
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Renan Lodi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Walter Kannemann  → Gustavo Martins
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Filip Krovinovic → Juan Nardoni
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Tetê → Cristian Pavón
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mamady Cissé 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Angelo Preciado
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
39'
Event
Cristian Pavón
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bernard → Igor Gomes
1st Substitution
31'
Event
Vitor Hugo 
Header / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Left Footed Shot Missed
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Left Footed Shot Missed
89
Update Update
Offside
87
Update Update
Offside
87
Corner Corner
Corner
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Wallace Head Shot Missed
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins Left Footed Shot Blocked
87
Corner Corner
Corner
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins Left Footed Shot Blocked
81
Corner Corner
Corner
78
Update Update
On Alan Minda，Off Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
78
Update Update
On Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues,Dudu，Off Tomas Cuello
76
Corner Corner
Corner
74
Corner Corner
Corner
74
Update Update
On Caio Paulista，Off Pedro Gabriel
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas Right Footed Shot Post
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Cuello Right Footed Shot Goal
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Right Footed Shot Blocked
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Tomas Cuello 3-0
63
Update Update
On Gabriel Mec，Off Douglas Moreira Fagundes
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Cuello Right Footed Shot Goal
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Cuello Right Footed Shot Goal
61
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Right Footed Shot Blocked
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Cuello Right Footed Shot Goal
61
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Right Footed Shot Blocked
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Tomas Cuello Right Footed Shot Goal
59
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte Right Footed Shot Blocked
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Tomas Cuello 3-0
58
Update Update
On Gabriel Mec，Off Douglas Moreira Fagundes
55
Update Update
On Castano Gil，Off Mamady Cisse
54
Update Update
On Maycon de Andrade Barberan，Off Alan Steven Franco Palma
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Walter Kannemann
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Francis Amuzu Right Footed Shot Saved
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Francis Amuzu Left Footed Shot Missed
49
Corner Corner
Corner
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Victor Hugo Gomes Silva Right Footed Shot Blocked
46
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Pedro Gabriel Left Footed Shot Missed
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Walter Kannemann
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Francis Amuzu Right Footed Shot Saved
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Martins Head Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Martins Head Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Martins Head Shot Missed
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gustavo Martins Head Shot Missed
44
Update Update
First Half Ends！1-0
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card - Mamady Cisse
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza Head Shot Missed
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Tomas Cuello Head Shot Missed
31
Update Update
Offside
26
Corner Corner
Corner
19
Update Update
Offside
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Corner
19
Corner Corner
Corner
14
Corner Corner
Corner
12
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos Head Shot Missed
12
Corner Corner
Corner
3
Corner Corner
Corner
1
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos Left Footed Shot Missed

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Grêmio. Structural assessment: Atlético Mineiro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.