Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena MRV
Serie A
Atlético MineiroAMN
1 – 1
BahiaBAH
Full Time
Round 19 Regular Season
Ruan - 45+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Ademir - 57'

CONTEXT

Atlético Mineiro hosted Bahia in a match that finished 1-1 after the home side led 1-0 at halftime. Atlético Mineiro entered as the stronger team yet could not hold their advantage through the second half despite generating 1.43 expected goals to Bahia's 1.22. Possession finished level at 50 percent apiece, underscoring the balanced nature of the contest. No red cards were shown to either side, allowing both teams to maintain full complements on the pitch. The draw proved consistent with the underlying metrics while reflecting a significant performance deviation for the home side. Bahia's second-half response proved decisive in securing the point on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atlético Mineiro posted a significant deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team projections.
  • xG alignment: Final 1-1 result stayed consistent with home xG of 1.43 and away xG of 1.22.
  • Market alignment: Draw outcome aligned fully with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG data pointed to a narrow home edge that did not produce a win.
  • Event impact: Bahia second-half equalizer directly shaped the 1-1 final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards left game flow undistorted across both halves.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. da Silva Machado
B. da Silva Machado
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
E. Goncalves da Cruz
E. Goncalves da Cruz
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Americano Labes
T. Americano Labes
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Gonçalves Fernandes
J. Gonçalves Fernandes
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Atlético Mineiro E. Domínguez
E. Domínguez
VS
Bahia R. Mücke Ceni
R. Mücke Ceni
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.61
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vasco da Gama Rank: 60 W
Corinthians Rank: 66 L
Mirassol Rank: 65 W
Botafogo Rank: 67 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 67 W
Flamengo Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chapecoense Rank: 53 W
Botafogo Rank: 67 W
Coritiba Rank: 59 L
Grêmio Rank: 63 D
Cruzeiro Rank: 67 L
São Paulo Rank: 63 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.31
62.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
Power Score
63.31
62.01
League Position
11
6
Global Rank
423
464

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Mineiro — Opponent-weighted form score
Bahia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Mineiro Bahia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético Mineiro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bahia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético Mineiro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bahia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.67
29.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.69
21.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético Mineiro -0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Bahia +0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético Mineiro
vs
Bahia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético Mineiro Bahia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
36%
9%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.52 vs -0.11
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético Mineiro Bahia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
9%
36%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.11 vs -0.52
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético Mineiro
vs
Bahia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético Mineiro Bahia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético Mineiro 0.22
Bahia 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético Mineiro Bahia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético Mineiro 0.03
Bahia 0.02
Atlético Mineiro
Bahia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAH had peak pressure around 61'.
  • AMN started the game with stronger pressure.
AMN Pressure BAH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAH reached the top pressure at 61' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Mineiro AMN Home
4 matches
Bahia BAH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-22T00:01:56+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 19 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena MRV
Capacity
44892
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Braulio da Silva Machado
Eduardo Goncalves da Cruz
Thiago Americano Labes
João Marcos Gonçalves Fernandes

Statistics

Possession
AMN
50%
BAH
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 12
60 Dangerous attacks 45
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 4
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

82 Ball Safe 64
15 Goal Kicks 10
10 Goal Attempts 13
3 Substitutions 5
29 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 2
4 Successful Headers 13
1 Assists 1
2 Injuries 2
15 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Successful Dribbles 9
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69

Attacking

102 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

53 Long Passes 26
395 Passes 406
335 Successful Passes 352
85 Successful Passes Percentage 87
16 Key Passes 20
25 Successful Long Passes 9
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

3 Saves 3
9 Tackles 19
7 Interceptions 9
35 Duels Won 49

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 17
7 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
4 Fouls 12

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Kauê Junior Furquim da Silva → Erick Pulga
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Erick
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Reinier → Bernard
7th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Iago → Zé Guilherme
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Zé Guilherme
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
73'
Event
Ruan Pablo  → Willian José 
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Everton Ribeiro   → Ademir
5th Substitution
Event
Mamady Cissé  → Maycon 
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Dudu → Victor Hugo
3rd Substitution
67'
57'
Event
Ademir
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Marcos Victor → Santiago Ramos Mingo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ruan
Header / 1st Goal
45+1'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Cuello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
88
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho.
87
Update Update
Kauê Furquim replaces Erick Da Costa Farias.
86
Update Update
Reinier Jesus Carvalho comes on for Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte.
85
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Iago Amaral Borduchi with his right foot, but it's blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Natanael Moreira Milouski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Roman Gomez takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
80
Update Update
Iago Amaral Borduchi is on, and Ze Guilherme is off.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ze Guilherme.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
Attempt Attempt
Roman Gomez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a header but misses the shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Natanael Moreira Milouski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Ruan Pablo Barbarosa Sousa comes on for Willian Jose.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Augusto de Barros Ribeiro comes on for Ademir Santos.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Mamady Cisse is on, and Maycon de Andrade Barberan is off.
67
Update Update
Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues, also known as Dudu, comes on for Victor Hugo Gomes Silva.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ademir Santos takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
56
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Acevedo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Nestor takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Roman Gomez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Willian Jose attempts a header but misses the shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Acevedo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Erick Da Costa Farias takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Offside.
46
Substitution Substitution
Marcos Victor Ferreira da Silva is substituted off for Santiago Ramos Mingo.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Ruan Tressoldi Netto Head Shot Goal
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Attempt Attempt
Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ademir Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Update Update
Willian Jose attempts a header but hits the post.
34
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Update Update
Offside.
22
Attempt Attempt
Erick Da Costa Farias takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Bernard Anicio Caldeira Duarte with his right foot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Renan Augusto Lodi Dos Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Ramos Mingo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Zander Mateo Casierra Cabezas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Cuello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Braulio da Silva Machado.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw left Atlético Mineiro with mixed feelings after surrendering a halftime lead against Bahia. Expected goals painted a tight affair that the result ultimately mirrored without major distortion. Both sides shared possession evenly and avoided disciplinary setbacks that could have altered dynamics. Bahia demonstrated effective second-half adjustments to claim a valuable away point. Atlético Mineiro will likely review their inability to convert slight xG superiority into three points. The match reinforced how fine margins separate outcomes in evenly matched fixtures. Continued focus on efficiency and structure should guide preparations for upcoming encounters.