Atlético de Madrid vs Villarreal preview

Spain flag 2026/2027 La Liga, Spain
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga
Atlético de MadridATM
2 – 2
VillarrealVIL
Full Time
Round 2 Regular Season
Marc Pubill - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Gerard Moreno  - 66' (P)
Georges Mikautadze - 78' (P)
Robin Le Normand 76' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Atlético de Madrid 2–2 Villarreal. The match ended in a draw. Atlético de Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Atlético de Madrid 1 – 3.1 Villarreal. Possession was 52%–48%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Atlético de Madrid 2-2 Villarreal. Atlético de Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Naranjo Pérez
J. Naranjo Pérez
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Cerdán Aguilar
M. Cerdán Aguilar
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Clemente Manrique
D. Clemente Manrique
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Atlético de Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Villarreal I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.57
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: 75 W
Villarreal Rank: 86 L
Girona Rank: 75 W
Osasuna Rank: 77 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 82 L
Valencia Rank: 81 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: 76 D
Atlético de Madrid Rank: 88 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 81 L
Sevilla Rank: 78 L
Mallorca Rank: 78 D
Levante Rank: 76 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.29
85.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético de Madrid
Villarreal
Power Score
88.29
85.72
League Position
3
9
Global Rank
19
31

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético de Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético de Madrid Villarreal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atlético de Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atlético de Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.69
31.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.56
42.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atlético de Madrid +1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Villarreal -1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atlético de Madrid
Villarreal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atlético de Madrid
vs
Villarreal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atlético de Madrid Villarreal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
51%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.05 vs +0.42
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atlético de Madrid Villarreal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
51%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.42 vs -0.05
Atlético de Madrid
Villarreal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Atlético de Madrid
vs
Villarreal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Atlético de Madrid Villarreal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Atlético de Madrid 0.30
Villarreal 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Atlético de Madrid Villarreal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Atlético de Madrid 0.05
Villarreal 0.03
Atlético de Madrid
Villarreal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VIL had peak pressure around 30'.
  • ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
ATM Pressure VIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VIL reached the top pressure at 30' (70.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético de Madrid ATM Home
4 matches
Villarreal VIL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
6
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:09:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 La Liga, Spain · Round 2 · Regular Season
Stadium
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity
70460
Attendance
61978
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
José Enrique Naranjo Pérez
Marcos Cerdán Aguilar
D. Clemente Manrique

Statistics

Possession
ATM
53%
VIL
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 6
5 Shots 3
64 Dangerous attacks 43
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Penalties 2
7 Goal Kicks 9
5 Substitutions 5
10 Throwins 9
4 Successful Headers 6
2 Assists 0
14 Dribble Attempts 24
8 Successful Dribbles 11
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46

Attacking

108 Attacks 93
0 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

43 Long Passes 34
520 Passes 498
459 Successful Passes 440
88 Successful Passes Percentage 88
16 Key Passes 8
23 Successful Long Passes 17
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

4 Saves 2
26 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 10
51 Duels Won 40

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 5
7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.93
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.91
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Defender
7.15
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez
Attacker66'
6.56
22
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Defender
7.31
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
5.71
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
Rodrigo Mendoza Midfielder
6.84
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena
Midfielder46'
6.6
6
Koke
Koke (C) Midfielder
7.34
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente
Midfielder66'
6.48
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
8.13
23
Morten Hjulmand
Morten Hjulmand Midfielder
7.42
7
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Attacker
7.04
8
Pablo Barrios
Pablo Barrios
Midfielder66'
6.57
11
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Attacker
6.86
2
José María Giménez
José María Giménez
Defender79'
6.29
Referee : Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Luiz Júnior
Luiz Júnior Goalkeeper
6.46
8
Juan Foyth
Juan Foyth (C) Defender
6.98
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
7.13
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Defender
6.62
20
Carlos Romero
Carlos Romero Defender
6.26
10
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
6.69
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno
Attacker61'
7.08
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Midfielder
6.36
21
Tani Oluwaseyi
Tani Oluwaseyi
Attacker85'
6.52
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
6.84
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Midfielder
6.89
26
Carlos Macià
Carlos Macià
Midfielder79'
6.58
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze Attacker
7.11
11
Ilias Akhomach
Ilias Akhomach
Attacker79'
6.43
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez Attacker
6.37
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan
Attacker61'
7.06

Events

2ND-HALF
90+10'
Event
Juan Foyth
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
José María Giménez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Giuliano Simeone
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
85'
Event
Tani Oluwaseyi → Santi Comesaña
10th Substitution
Event
José María Giménez → Ademola Lookman
8th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Ilias Akhomach → Georges Mikautadze
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Carlos Macià → Nicolas Pépé
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Georges Mikautadze
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Morten Hjulmand
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Diego Simeone
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Robin Le Normand
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
76'
75'
Event
Georges Mikautadze
Penalty awarded
Event
Julián Alvarez → Marc Pubill
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Pablo Barrios → Kang-in Lee
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Marcos Llorente → Koke 
6th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Gerard Moreno 
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
61'
Event
Tajon Buchanan → Ayoze Pérez
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Gerard Moreno  → Alberto Moleiro
3rd Substitution
Event
Marc Pubill
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
59'
Event
Álex Baena
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
50'
Event
Santiago Mouriño
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Álex Baena → Rodrigo Mendoza
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Juan Marcos Foyth.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tajon Buchanan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Jose Maria Gimenez de Vargas.
90
Attempt Attempt
Julian Alvarez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Tajon Buchanan takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Giuliano Simeone scores to make it 2-2, assisted by Alejandro Baena Rodriguez.
85
Update Update
On comes Tani Oluwaseyi, off goes Santi Comesana.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Giuliano Simeone with his right foot results in a goal.
81
Attempt Attempt
Giuliano Simeone takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Llorente Moreno takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
80
Update Update
Jose Maria Gimenez de Vargas comes on for Ademola Lookman.
79
Update Update
Ilias Akhomach comes on for Georges Mikautadze.
79
Update Update
Carlos Macià is on, and Nicolas Pepe is off.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Georges Mikautadze takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yellow card issued to Morten Hjulmand.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
76
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued to Robin Le Normand.
75
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Georges Mikautadze.
73
Update Update
Julian Alvarez comes on for Marc Pubill.
66
Update Update
Julian Alvarez comes on for Marc Pubill.
66
Attempt Attempt
Giuliano Simeone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
On Marcos Llorente Moreno, off Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, Koke.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Gerard Moreno Balaguero with his left foot results in a goal.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Gerard Moreno scores, making it 1-1.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Gerard Moreno Balaguero with his left foot results in a goal.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Gerard Moreno scores, making it 1-1.
61
Update Update
Offside.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Marc Pubill with his left foot results in a goal.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marc Pubill scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Giuliano Simeone.
57
Attempt Attempt
Pape Alassane Gueye takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Pape Alassane Gueye takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Update Update
Offside.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Alejandro Baena Rodriguez.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Giuliano Simeone takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pepe takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Mourino receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In takes a right-footed shot, but it’s blocked.
46
Update Update
Alejandro Baena Rodriguez is on, and Rodrigo Mendoza is off.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 0-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ayoze Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Morten Hjulmand takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ademola Lookman takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
23
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mendoza takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Giuliano Simeone takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pepe takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mendoza takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Mendoza takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Jorge Resurreccion Merodio, Koke's left-footed shot is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Alex Grimaldo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Alejandro Jose Hernandez.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Atlético de Madrid 2-2 Villarreal. Structural assessment: Atlético de Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.