Athletico PR vs Fluminense preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Arena de Baixada
Serie A
Athletico PRAPR
3 – 3
FluminenseFLU
Full Time
Round 25 Regular Season
Leozinho - 35'
Kevin Viveros - 90+5' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Hulk  - 38'
Ignácio - 78'

CONTEXT

Athletico PR and Fluminense played out a 3-3 draw after leading 1-1 at halftime. Athletico PR posted 1.88 expected goals while Fluminense recorded 0.65 for a differential of 1.23. Athletico PR held 47 percent possession against Fluminense's 53 percent. No red cards were issued during the match. Fluminense entered as the stronger side yet the contest ended level. The result proved inconsistent with the expected goals data and featured a significant 100 percent deviation attributed to Fluminense. Efficiency stayed in line with projections for both teams across the full ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fluminense recorded a significant structural deviation of 100 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final 3-3 result was not consistent with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Athletico PR led expected goals 1.88 to 0.65 yet drew 3-3.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the course of the 3-3 draw.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Fernandes de Lima
F. Fernandes de Lima
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Costa de Oliveira
F. Costa de Oliveira
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Da Silva
C. Da Silva
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Ribeiro Gonçalves
A. Ribeiro Gonçalves
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Athletico PR O. Hellmann
O. Hellmann
VS
Fluminense M. De Oliveira
M. De Oliveira
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.7
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Botafogo Rank: 65 W
Bragantino Rank: 63 D
Santos Rank: 65 W
Corinthians Rank: 67 D
Internacional Rank: 64 W
São Paulo Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Remo Rank: 58 W
Palmeiras Rank: 76 W
Botafogo Rank: 69 D
Bahia Rank: 64 D
Grêmio Rank: 62 D
Bragantino Rank: 64 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.21
68.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletico PR
Fluminense
Power Score
58.21
68.48
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
357
300

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletico PR — Opponent-weighted form score
Fluminense — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletico PR Fluminense

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Athletico PR

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fluminense

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Athletico PR ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fluminense
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.45
24.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.15
42.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Athletico PR +1.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Fluminense -1.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Athletico PR
Fluminense
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Athletico PR
vs
Fluminense
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Athletico PR Fluminense
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
58%
32%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.08 vs -0.21
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Athletico PR Fluminense
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
32%
58%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.21 vs -0.08
Athletico PR
Fluminense
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Athletico PR
vs
Fluminense
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Athletico PR Fluminense
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Athletico PR 0.29
Fluminense 0.75
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Athletico PR Fluminense
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Athletico PR 0.19
Fluminense 0.05
Athletico PR
Fluminense
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • APR had peak pressure around 103'.
  • FLU started the game with stronger pressure.
APR Pressure FLU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: APR reached the top pressure at 103' (89.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletico PR APR Home
3 matches
Fluminense FLU Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-31T00:07:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena de Baixada
Capacity
43000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Felipe Alan Costa de Oliveira
Celso Luiz Da Silva
Anderson Ribeiro Gonçalves

Statistics

Possession
APR
50%
FLU
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
59 Dangerous attacks 16
47 Possession 53
8 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

80 Ball Safe 94
1 Penalties 0
6 Goal Kicks 6
10 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 4
18 Throwins 21
0 Injuries 1
12 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Successful Dribbles 5
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

113 Attacks 82

Possession

43 Long Passes 44
444 Passes 526
392 Successful Passes 458
88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
11 Key Passes 8
24 Successful Long Passes 19
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

3 Saves 5
12 Tackles 14
14 Interceptions 12
38 Duels Won 41

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 10
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Starting XI ▼

23
Santos
Santos (C) Goalkeeper
5.93
4
Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias Defender
6.41
25
Dantas
Dantas Defender
6.52
33
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Juan Felipe Aguirre Defender
6.48
19
Jorge Rivaldo
Jorge Rivaldo
Attacker83'
6.74
7
Stiven Mendoza
Stiven Mendoza Midfielder
7.33
14
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo Midfielder
6.47
10
Bruno Zapelli
Bruno Zapelli
Midfielder83'
6.8
16
Jádson
Jádson Midfielder
6.55
29
Gastón Benavídez
Gastón Benavídez Midfielder
7.32
8
João Cruz
João Cruz Attacker
6.79
18
Kerwin Vargas
Kerwin Vargas
Attacker71'
6.89
9
Kevin Viveros
Kevin Viveros Attacker
7.57
21
Leozinho
Leozinho Attacker
7.58
53
Dudu
Dudu
Midfielder71'
6.79
Referee : Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Starting XI ▼

1
Fábio
Fábio Goalkeeper
6.98
4
Ignácio
Ignácio Defender
7.14
6
Renê
Renê Defender
6.56
23
Guga
Guga Defender
6
29
Julián Millán
Julián Millán Defender
6.45
8
Martinelli
Martinelli Midfielder
7.09
10
Ganso
Ganso (C) Midfielder
6.44
32
Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta
Midfielder59'
6.47
16
Nonato
Nonato Midfielder
6.99
17
Agustín Canobbio
Agustín Canobbio Midfielder
7.68
11
Jefferson Savarino
Jefferson Savarino
Attacker89'
30
Yeferson Soteldo
Yeferson Soteldo Midfielder
6.2
90
Kevin Serna
Kevin Serna
Attacker59'
6.52
7
Hulk
Hulk Attacker
8.78
44
Jemmes
Jemmes
Defender90'
6.18

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kevin Viveros
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+5'
90'
Event
Jemmes → Hulk 
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Jefferson Savarino → Agustín Canobbio
7th Substitution
Event
Kevin Viveros
Goal disallowed
87'
Event
Jorge Rivaldo → Juan Felipe Aguirre
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Bruno Zapelli → Luiz Gustavo
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Kevin Viveros
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Ignácio
Header / 5th Goal
75'
Event
Nonato 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dudu → Leozinho
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Kerwin Vargas → João Cruz
4th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Agustín Canobbio
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
59'
Event
Luciano Acosta → Ganso
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Kevin Serna → Yeferson Soteldo
2nd Substitution
Event
Gastón Benavídez
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Gastón Benavídez
Header / 3rd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Ganso
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Hulk 
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Leozinho
Header / 1st Goal
35'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega scores. The match remains 3-3.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Zapelli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Jorge Rivaldo's header is blocked.
90
Update Update
On Jemmes, off Hulk Givanildo Vieira De Souza.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-3.
89
Update Update
Jefferson Savarino is on, and Agustin Canobbio Graviz is off.
89
Update Update
Offside.
89
Update Update
Offside.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega due to offside.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
87
Attempt Attempt
Kerwin Vargas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-3.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk, with a left-footed shot, is saved.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Rivaldo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Jorge Rivaldo is on, and Juan Felipe Aguirre is off.
83
Update Update
Bruno Zapelli comes on for Luiz Gustavo Dias.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira heads it in for a goal.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ignacio Da Silva Oliveira scores to make it 2-3, assisted by Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Arthur Dias Head Shot Missed
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Gustavo Nonato Santana.
71
Update Update
Dudu Kogitzki comes on for Leozinho.
71
Update Update
Kerwin Vargas is on, and Joao Cruz is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Julian Millan attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Canobbio Graviz's header is saved.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Agustin Canobbio Graviz takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Agustin Canobbio Graviz scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
64
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Rodrigues Gomes takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked by Guga.
60
Update Update
Offside.
59
Update Update
On Kevin Serna, off Yeferson Julio Soteldo Martinez.
59
Update Update
Luciano Federico Acosta is on, and Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima, also known as Ganso, is off.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Update Update
Offside.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Gaston Americo Benavidez.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Gaston Americo Benavidez Head Shot Goal
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gaston Americo Benavidez scores, making it 2-1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima, known as Ganso.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Givanildo Vieira De Souza, known as Hulk, with a left-footed shot resulting in a goal.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk 1-1
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Leozinho Head Shot Goal
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leozinho scores to make it 1-0, assisted by John Stiveen Mendoza Valencia.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Juan Felipe Aguirre takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
27
Attempt Attempt
Joao Cruz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Leozinho takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Canobbio Graviz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Agustin Canobbio Graviz takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Attempt Attempt
Joao Cruz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk, with his left foot, but it missed the target.
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Givanildo Vieira De Souza, Hulk, with his right foot, but it misses the target.
1
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Rodrigues Gomes takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked by Guga.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Felipe Fernandes de Lima.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw highlighted how expected goals can diverge from actual outcomes when finishing proves clinical on both sides. Athletico PR created the clearer chances according to the metrics but Fluminense matched the scoring output despite lower expected goals. Possession favored the visitors slightly without translating into a win. The absence of dismissals kept the game balanced throughout. This result underscores the value of tracking underlying numbers alongside the scoreline for a fuller picture of performance. Both teams demonstrated periods of control that led to goals yet neither could pull ahead decisively.