Aston Villa vs Liverpool preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Fri, 15 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Aston VillaAVL
LiverpoolLIV
KICKOFF : Fri, 15 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Villa Park hosts a pivotal Premier League encounter as Aston Villa, perched in 5th place, faces 4th-placed Liverpool during the 2025/2026 regular season. Liverpool carries a narrow power edge at 92.19 versus Villa's 90.73, equating to a 1.5-point advantage that underscores their status as the stronger side. Form metrics further favor the visitors, with Liverpool's 24.44 score outpacing Villa's 16.22, signaling momentum in recent outings. Home support could ignite Villa's challenge, yet Liverpool's superior ratings suggest dominance in structure and execution. Midfield duels and forward prowess will shape the narrative, while sparse data on efficiency and set pieces leaves room for surprises. Transitions may prove decisive, testing defensive resilience. Both squads boast quality, but Liverpool's consistency positions them to capitalize on opportunities in this top-table tussle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Liverpool holds a 1.5-point power advantage with a 92.19 score over Aston Villa's 90.73.
  • Form: Liverpool's form score of 24.44 exceeds Aston Villa's 16.22.
  • Squad: Liverpool occupies 4th in the league, one spot above Aston Villa in 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: No specific transition statistics are provided for either side.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics use low-confidence proxy data without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG variables are unavailable as the add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Aston Villa 32.8% (Δ+0.7%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ-0.2%) | Liverpool 42.4% (Δ-0.6%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 L
Fulham Rank: 85 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
West Ham United Rank: 83 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 88 D
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Everton Rank: 88 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 29
29
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
32.81%
Draw
24.81%
Away Liverpool
42.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aston Villa
+0.7%
Draw
-0.15%
Liverpool
-0.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.73
92.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Power Score
90.73
92.19
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
10
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Liverpool

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
48 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
8
Wins
29
11
Draws
11
29
Losses
8
Goals
52
Goals Scored
89
89
Goals Conceded
52
-37
Goal Difference
+37
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:57+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.93
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Centre Forward
6.86
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Right Back
6.89
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Defensive Midfield
6.6
5
Tyrone Mings
Tyrone Mings Left Back
6.68
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Attacking Midfield
7.16
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Right Back
6.83
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Defensive Midfield
6.76
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Right Wing
6.88
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Left Back
6.65
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Left Wing
6.88

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
6.82
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Centre Forward
7.1
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez Right Back
6.5
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Left Back
6.76
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Attacking Midfield
7.36
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Defensive Midfield
6.85
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Right Back
6.82
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Left Back
7.08
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Right Wing
6.61
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Defensive Midfield
7.07
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Left Wing
6.87

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Liverpool holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Liverpool a 1.5-point edge. External projection is Aston Villa 32.1%, draw 25%, and Liverpool 42.9%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.