Arouca vs Tondela preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Liga Portugal
Arouca FCA
Tondela CDT
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arouca host Tondela at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in a Liga Portugal regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 11th in the table, Arouca enter with a power score of 66.58, significantly ahead of Tondela's 54.63, translating to a 12-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side overall. Form scores tilt slightly towards the hosts at 21.89 compared to the visitors' 19.22, suggesting marginal recent momentum. Tondela languish in 17th, facing an uphill battle away from home. No specific last outings or detailed form records are available, while set piece metrics remain unavailable due to absent xG data and low-confidence proxies. Efficiency and transition insights are lacking, leaving structural edges as the key differentiator in this mid-versus-bottom clash. Arouca's home advantage could prove decisive in a potentially tight contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arouca possesses a superior power score of 66.58 over Tondela's 54.63, with a 12-point advantage.
  • Form: Arouca holds a slight form edge with a score of 21.89 against Tondela's 19.22.
  • Squad: Arouca ranks 11th in the league, while Tondela sits 17th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for either team.
  • Transition: No transition play metrics provided for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG and low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: No xG or advanced variable metrics available for either side.
  • Market: Arouca 30.6% (Δ+0.3%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0.2%) | Tondela 42.9% (Δ-0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
30.56%
Draw
26.57%
Away Tondela
42.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arouca
+0.25%
Draw
+0.16%
Tondela
-0.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.58
54.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Tondela
Power Score
66.58
54.63
League Position
11
17
Global Rank
294
422

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Tondela

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca FCA Home
7 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
10
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:03:51+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 17, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity
5600
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

12
Ignacio De Arruabarrena Fernández
Ignacio De Arruabarrena Fernández Goalkeeper
1
João Nuno Figueiredo Valido
João Nuno Figueiredo Valido Goalkeeper
30
Jakub Vinarčík
Jakub Vinarčík Goalkeeper
25
Bas Edo Kuipers
Bas Edo Kuipers Defender
28
Tiago Alexandre Sousa Esgaio
Tiago Alexandre Sousa Esgaio Defender
5
Boris Popović
Boris Popović Defender
15
Javier Sánchez de Felipe
Javier Sánchez de Felipe Defender
3
José Manuel Fontán Mondragón
José Manuel Fontán Mondragón Defender
44
Amadou Dante
Amadou Dante Defender
4
Matías Emiliano Rocha Calderón
Matías Emiliano Rocha Calderón Defender
6
D. Pinheiro Monteiro
D. Pinheiro Monteiro Defender
66
Omar Fayed
Omar Fayed Defender
2
José Augusto Silva
José Augusto Silva Defender
10
Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert
Pablo Gozalbez Gilabert Midfielder
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
89
Pedro Carvalho Santos
Pedro Carvalho Santos Midfielder
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder
20
Jesús Santiago
Jesús Santiago Midfielder
46
Mateo Flores Lozano
Mateo Flores Lozano Midfielder
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Attacker
17
Iván Martínez Gonzálvez
Iván Martínez Gonzálvez Attacker
11
Miguel Puche García
Miguel Puche García Attacker
19
Alfonso Trezza Hernández
Alfonso Trezza Hernández Attacker
24
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla Attacker
9
Fally Mayulu
Fally Mayulu Attacker
23
Dylan Alenxader Nandín Berrutti
Dylan Alenxader Nandín Berrutti Attacker

Squad ▼

30
Lucas Cañizars Conchello
Lucas Cañizars Conchello Goalkeeper
1
Carlos Joel Castro de Sousa
Carlos Joel Castro de Sousa Goalkeeper
31
Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes Goalkeeper
5
João Ricardo Silva Afonso
João Ricardo Silva Afonso Defender
2
Roberto de Jesus Machado
Roberto de Jesus Machado Defender
44
João Pedro Eira Antunes da Silva
João Pedro Eira Antunes da Silva Defender
48
Tiago Miguel Silva Manso
Tiago Miguel Silva Manso Defender
27
Rodrigo Fernandes Conceição
Rodrigo Fernandes Conceição Defender
21
Remi Vita
Remi Vita Defender
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
60
Emmanuel Maviram
Emmanuel Maviram Defender
20
Brayan Medina
Brayan Medina Defender
8
Hélder Luís Lopes Vieira Tavares
Hélder Luís Lopes Vieira Tavares Midfielder
97
Cícero Clebson Alves Santana
Cícero Clebson Alves Santana Midfielder
15
Sphephelo Sithole
Sphephelo Sithole Midfielder
10
Joseph Hodge
Joseph Hodge Midfielder
14
Xabier Huarte Armendariz
Xabier Huarte Armendariz Midfielder
79
Hugo Félix Sequeira
Hugo Félix Sequeira Midfielder
32
Juan Sebastian Rodríguez López
Juan Sebastian Rodríguez López Midfielder
16
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes
Marcos Paulo Mesquita Lopes Attacker
29
Theoson Jordan Siebatcheu
Theoson Jordan Siebatcheu Attacker
23
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka Attacker
7
Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos
Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos Attacker
26
Arjen van der Heide
Arjen van der Heide Attacker
90
Makan Aiko
Makan Aiko Attacker
70
Moudja Sie Ouattara
Moudja Sie Ouattara Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Arouca holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Arouca a 12-point edge. External projection is Arouca 31.8%, draw 25.7%, and Tondela 42.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.