Ararat-Armenia vs Riga preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Armenia Football Academy grass Tue, 7 Jul - 4:00 PM
Champions League
Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia
2 0
Riga Riga
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Hugo Oliveira - 63'
Carlos França - 86'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Frenks Orols 72'

CONTEXT

Ararat-Armenia hosted Riga in the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie and secured a 2-0 victory. The contest stayed level at 0-0 through halftime before the home side pulled ahead in the second period. Ararat-Armenia finished with 54 percent possession against Riga's 46 percent. A red card to the away side altered the flow after the break and contributed to the final margin. Pre-match indicators identified Ararat-Armenia as the stronger team and the outcome reflected only minimal deviation from those views. Efficiency metrics stayed consistent with expectations while market signals aligned with the result. The win gives the hosts a useful advantage ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Ararat-Armenia 2-0 Riga. Ararat-Armenia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both sides throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with available market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures were recorded preventing detailed expectations analysis.
  • Event impact: The second-half red card to Riga shaped the later stages of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: The red card to the away team produced clear distortion in match structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Zabroda
K. Zabroda
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Kutsev
V. Kutsev
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Skoblya
V. Skoblya
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
VS
Riga A. Guľa
A. Guľa
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ararat-Armenia
97.32%
Draw
1.91%
Away Riga
0.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ararat-Armenia
Riga
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Riga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ararat-Armenia Riga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Riga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Riga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.15
16.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.63
23.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ararat-Armenia +0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Riga -0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Riga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Riga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ararat-Armenia Riga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Riga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Riga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ararat-Armenia
vs
Riga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ararat-Armenia Riga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ararat-Armenia 0.13
Riga 0.05
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Riga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ararat-Armenia 0.00
Riga 0.03
Ararat-Armenia
Riga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Riga had peak pressure around 42'.
  • Riga started the game with stronger pressure.
Ararat-Armenia Pressure Riga Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Riga reached the top pressure at 42' (61.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia Home
0 matches
Riga Riga Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
J. Donna Bravim
Brazil
98 J. Donna Bravim
K. Hovhannisyan
Armenia
13 K. Hovhannisyan
J. Bueno
Colombia
3 J. Bueno
A. Malis
Substitution
Greece
47 A. Malis
E. Grigoryan
Armenia
16 E. Grigoryan
H. da Silva Oliveira
Portugal
2 H. da Silva Oliveira
A. Tera
Substitution
Kenya
20 A. Tera
K. Muradyan
Armenia
19 (C) K. Muradyan
A. Serobyan
Substitution
Armenia
77 A. Serobyan
S. Cesar
Substitution
Brazil
91 S. Cesar
Z. Shaghoyan
Substitution
Armenia
7 Z. Shaghoyan
F. Orols
Latvia
91 F. Orols
A. Salazar Osorio
Colombia
17 A. Salazar Osorio
B. Musah
Ghana
21 B. Musah
K. Wassom
5 K. Wassom
P. Ferreira Godinho
Brazil
33 P. Ferreira Godinho
O. Galo Calderón
Substitution
Costa Rica
4 O. Galo Calderón
A. Ankrah
Ghana
40 A. Ankrah
R. Jurkovskis
Latvia
13 (C) R. Jurkovskis
R. Aouani
Substitution
Tunisia
7 R. Aouani
S. Oulad M'Hand
Substitution
Netherlands
18 S. Oulad M'Hand
M. Badamosi
Substitution
Gambia
19 M. Badamosi

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Armenia Football Academy grass
Capacity
3946
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Klym Zabroda
Valentin Kutsev
Vitaliy Skoblya
Andriy Kovalenko

Statistics

Possession
Ararat-Armenia
54%
Riga
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
6 Shots 3
70 Dangerous attacks 73
54 Possession 46
5 Corners 6
10 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
15 Throwins 15

Attacking

128 Attacks 95

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
6 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Klym Zabroda

Starting XI ▼

98
João Bravim
João Bravim Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira Defender
6.69
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio Defender
6.5
13
Kamo Hovhannisyan
Kamo Hovhannisyan Defender
6.5
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan Defender
6.61
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis Defender
6.5
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson
Defender44'
6.5
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan Midfielder
6.5
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder73'
6.69
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C) Midfielder
6.61
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera Midfielder
6.5
10
Armen Ambartsumyan
Armen Ambartsumyan
Midfielder72'
6.5
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan Midfielder
6.5
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui
Midfielder88'
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.5
25
Alioune Ndour
Alioune Ndour
Attacker72'
6.5
Referee : Klym Zabroda

Starting XI ▼

91
Frenks Orols
Frenks Orols Goalkeeper
6.04
5
Karl Gameni Wassom
Karl Gameni Wassom Defender
6.05
13
Raivis Jurkovskis
Raivis Jurkovskis (C) Defender
6.05
17
Andrés Salazar
Andrés Salazar Defender
6.05
21
Baba Musah
Baba Musah Defender
6.05
33
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo Defender
6.05
4
Orlando Galo
Orlando Galo Midfielder
6.27
8
Iago Siqueira
Iago Siqueira
Midfielder90+5'
7
Raki Aouani
Raki Aouani Midfielder
6.37
1
Krisjanis Zviedris
Krisjanis Zviedris
Goalkeeper76'
6.12
18
Salah Oulad
Salah Oulad Midfielder
6.23
22
Meïssa Diop
Meïssa Diop
Midfielder86'
40
Ahmed Ankrah
Ahmed Ankrah Midfielder
6.27
19
Mohamed Badamosi
Mohamed Badamosi Attacker
6.39
10
Reginaldo Ramires
Reginaldo Ramires
Attacker86'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Iago Siqueira → Orlando Galo
9th Substitution
Event
Zidane Banjaqui → Artur Serobyan
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Carlos França
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
86'
86'
Event
Meïssa Diop → Salah Oulad
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Reginaldo Ramires → Mohamed Badamosi
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Krisjanis Zviedris → Raki Aouani
5th Substitution
Event
Carlos França → Zhirayr Shaghoyan
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Armen Ambartsumyan  → Alwyn Tera
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Alioune Ndour → Sandro Lima
3rd Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Frenks Orols
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
68'
Event
Salah Oulad
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Hugo Oliveira
Field Goal / 1st Goal
63'
54'
Event
Mohamed Badamosi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Wilson → Alexandros Malis
1st Substitution
44'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 2-0.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Update Update
Zidane Banjaqui comes on for Artur Serobyan.
86
Update Update
On Meissa Diop, Off Salah MHand.
86
Update Update
Reginaldo Ramires is on, and Mohamed Badamosi is off.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Carlos Franca scores, making it 2-0.
76
Substitution Substitution
Krisjanis Zviedris is substituted off for Raki Aouani.
73
Substitution Substitution
Carlos Franca is substituted for Zhirayr Shaghoyan.
72
Update Update
On Armen Ambartsumyan, off Alwyn Tera.
72
Update Update
Alioune Ndour comes on for Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
72
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Frenks Davids Orols.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Salah MHand.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mohamed Badamosi.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Update Update
Bruno Wilson comes on for Alexandros Malis.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Klym Zabroda.

CONCLUSION

Ararat-Armenia's 2-0 first-leg success over Riga establishes a clear platform for the return match. An even opening period gave way to home dominance once the visitors were reduced to ten men. Slight possession superiority and two second-half goals underlined the hosts' control after the disciplinary setback. Minimal deviation from pre-match strength assessments confirmed the result followed logical patterns. Efficiency stayed aligned and market signals matched the final scoreline. Riga must now chase the aggregate while addressing the numerical disadvantage in the second leg. The outcome highlights how a single event can shift momentum decisively in knockout ties.