Anderlecht vs Union Saint-Gilloise preview
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Lotto Park
Sun, 26 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 5 ·
Championship Round
Killian Sardella 45+7'
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STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Anderlecht welcomed Union Saint-Gilloise to the Lotto Park for a high-stakes Belgian Pro League clash, which concluded with a 1-3 victory for the visitors. The first half saw Anderlecht take a possession edge at 55% to 45%, yet they trailed 1-2 at the break after Union Saint-Gilloise struck twice. Momentum swung dramatically in the second half when Anderlecht received a red card, leaving them short-handed and vulnerable. Despite controlling the ball more, the home side struggled to create meaningful chances post-dismissal, while Union Saint-Gilloise exploited the numerical advantage with clinical precision to add a third goal. Deemed the stronger team beforehand, Union Saint-Gilloise's win highlighted their superior efficiency and adaptability under pressure. This result underscores a significant structural deviation in their favor, aligning with pre-match assessments amid red card distortion.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise recorded a significant 45.3% structural deviation in their victory.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with overall expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
-
Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from missing metrics.
-
Event impact: Red card event decisively altered match flow in second half.
-
Red card distortion: Anderlecht's red card produced clear second-half distortion favoring Union Saint-Gilloise.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
J. Taravel
VS
D. Hubert
1.41
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
2.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden
Rank:
L
Mechelen
Rank:
W
Gent
Rank:
W
Club Brugge
Rank:
L
Cercle Brugge
Rank:
L
Mechelen
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent
Rank:
D
Club Brugge
Rank:
W
Mechelen
Rank:
W
Sint-Truiden
Rank:
W
Sint-Truiden
Rank:
W
Dender
Rank:
W
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 11
11
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Anderlecht
18.94%
Draw
26.32%
Union Saint-Gilloise
54.74%
Movement
Changes since opening
Anderlecht
+18.72%
Draw
+24.4%
Union Saint-Gilloise
-43.12%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.87
40.48
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Power Score
21.87
40.48
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Anderlecht
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Union Saint-Gilloise
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Anderlecht Union Saint-Gilloise
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Anderlecht
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Union Saint-Gilloise
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Anderlecht
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Union Saint-Gilloise
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Anderlecht
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Anderlecht
0.00
Union Saint-Gilloise
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Anderlecht
0.00
Union Saint-Gilloise
0.00
Anderlecht
Union Saint-Gilloise
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- USG had peak pressure around 75'.
- USG started the game with stronger pressure.
ADL Pressure
USG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
USG reached the top pressure at 75' (87.10).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Anderlecht
ADL
Home
16
matches
Union Saint-Gilloise
USG
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
11
3
Draws
3
11
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
9
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T16:02:46+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
3-4-2-1
26 C. Coosemans
79 A. Maamar
54 K. Sardella
93 M. Diarra
55 M. Kana
L. Hey
#346'
7 I. Camara
10 Y. Verschaeren
83 T. Degreef
11 T. Hazard
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Championship Round
Stadium
Lotto Park
Capacity
21500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jasper Vergoote
Michael Geerolf
Martijn Tiesters
Wim Smet
Next Match
Anderlecht
vs
Club Brugge
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 4:30 PM
Venue: Lotto Park
Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Sint-Truiden
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 6:45 PM
Venue: Stayen Stadion
Statistics
Possession
ADL
52%
USG
48%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
3
1
Big Chances Created
1
3
Shots
4
54
Dangerous attacks
56
55
Possession
45
4
Corners
3
8
Free kicks
16
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
28
Throwins
23
12
Goal Kicks
7
33
Successful Dribbles Percentage
47
7
Successful Dribbles
7
1
Assists
2
21
Dribble Attempts
15
76
Ball Safe
69
7
Goal Attempts
10
5
Substitutions
5
0
Hit Woodwork
1
Attacking
83
Attacks
97
Possession
38
Successful Long Passes Percentage
54
461
Passes
372
382
Successful Passes
307
83
Successful Passes Percentage
83
6
Key Passes
9
42
Long Passes
52
16
Successful Long Passes
28
Defensive
1
Saves
2
38
Duels Won
50
12
Interceptions
10
16
Tackles
22
Build-up
2
Accurate Crosses
4
15
Total Crosses
13
Discipline
16
Fouls
8
3
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Jasper Vergoote
Manager ▼
J. Taravel
Coach
Starting XI ▼
54
Killian Sardella
Defender
6.76
93
Moussa Diarra
Defender
6.6 4
Mathys Angély
Defender81'
7
Ilay Camara
Midfielder
6.66 3Lucas Hey
6.83Defender46'
10
Yari Verschaeren
Midfielder
6.78 11
Thorgan Hazard
Attacker
7.36 Substitutes ▼
23
Mats Rits
Midfielder
6.57 78
Anas Tajaouart
Midfielder
6.24 77
Coba da Costa
Attacker
6.53
Referee :
Jasper Vergoote
Manager ▼
D. Hubert
Coach
Starting XI ▼
37
Kjell Scherpen
Goalkeeper
6.99 10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Attacker
6.97 Substitutes ▼
29
Massiré Sylla
Defender
20
Marc Giger
Attacker
6.82
Events
2ND-HALF
5th Yellowcard
90+3'
7th Substitution
81'
9th Substitution
81'
81'
8th Substitution
81'
10th Substitution
76'
5th Substitution
76'
6th Substitution
4th Substitution
70'
68'
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
66'
3rd Substitution
65'
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
2nd Substitution
61'
Lucas Hey → Ilay Camara
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Killian Sardella
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
45+7'
Killian Sardella
Card adjusted
45+7'
45+6'
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Header / 3rd Goal
32'
25'
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
19'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
Header / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Union Saint-Gilloise's 1-3 triumph over Anderlecht validates their status as the stronger side, overcoming a halftime deficit through ruthless exploitation of a rival red card. Anderlecht's 55% possession failed to yield results after the dismissal, exposing defensive frailties and inefficiency. The visitors' second-half surge, adding one more goal, reflected perfect adaptation to the numerical edge. This outcome, marked by significant structural deviation and market alignment, reinforces Union Saint-Gilloise's title credentials while highlighting Anderlecht's need for disciplinary improvements. Key distortions from the red card reshaped the contest, turning potential parity into a clear away win.
