Alverca vs Estoril preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca Sun, 10 May - 7:30 PM
Liga Portugal
AlvercaALV
EstorilEPF
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Alverca hosts Estoril at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in a Liga Portugal regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. The teams occupy adjacent mid-table spots, with Alverca in 10th and Estoril in 9th, both chasing stability in the standings. Estoril emerges as the structurally superior side, holding a power score of 67.88 against Alverca's 57.48 for a clear 10.4-point edge. Contrasting this, Alverca rides superior recent form at 16.83 versus Estoril's 3.28, potentially fueling an upset bid at home. Projections indicate a tight affair: Alverca 39.3%, draw 27%, Estoril 33.7%. Data limitations persist, with no efficiency metrics or detailed set piece insights available due to absent xG information and low-confidence proxies. Alverca must harness venue advantage and momentum, while Estoril seeks to assert dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Estoril possesses a 10.4-point power advantage with a score of 67.88 over Alverca's 57.48.
  • Form: Alverca holds a superior form score of 16.83 compared to Estoril's 3.28.
  • Squad: No squad news, form records, or last outing details available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with proxies used and no xG available.
  • xVariable: No xG or advanced variable data provided for either team.
  • Market: Alverca 38.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.5% (Δ+0%) | Estoril 35.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
VS
Estoril B. Lazaro
B. Lazaro
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Nacional Rank: 63 L
Casa Pia Rank: 62 W
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 D
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Moreirense Rank: 66 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alverca
38.36%
Draw
26.51%
Away Estoril
35.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.48
67.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alverca
Estoril
Power Score
57.48
67.88
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
288
257

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alverca Estoril

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alverca ALV Home
1 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:38:51+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
1 Matheus Mendes
K. Marques Naves
4 K. Marques Naves
S. Gómez Solà
5 S. Gómez Solà
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
R. Simião Gomes
26 R. Simião Gomes
L. Oliveira dos Santos
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
I. James
12 I. James
M. Milovanović
9 M. Milovanović
S. Cordovil de Lima
91 S. Cordovil de Lima
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Capacity
7705
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Iancu Ioan Vasilica
João Alexandre Bessa Silva
João Paulo Silva Macedo
Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira

Expected Lineup

Referee : Iancu Ioan Vasilica

Starting XI ▼

1
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.74
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
9
Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović Attacker
6.71
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
6.98
91
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima Centre Forward
7.3
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Right Back
6.94
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Centre Back
6.55
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Central Midfield
6.69
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Left Back
6.55
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Central Midfield
7.07
Referee : Iancu Ioan Vasilica

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Midfielder
6.78
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Midfielder
6.54
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Centre Forward
7.17
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
7.06
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane Attacker
6.85
4
Ferro
Ferro Centre Back
6.8
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Right Back
6.8
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Central Midfield
7.18
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Left Back
6.74
8
Xeka
Xeka Central Midfield
6.64

CONCLUSION

Alverca's strong form score meets Estoril's power superiority in this mid-table Liga Portugal clash at home. The 10.4-point gap favors Estoril structurally, yet Alverca's 16.83 to 3.28 form edge and venue could spark resistance. Close league positions amplify stakes, with projections leaning slightly to the hosts. Absent advanced stats on efficiency, set pieces, and transitions force focus on basics: home momentum versus away quality. Alverca aims to extend form through defensive solidity and counters, while Estoril targets control to edge ahead. Tight balance suggests a hard-fought draw looms large.