Alverca vs Arouca preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca Fri, 24 Apr - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
AlvercaALV
2 1
AroucaFCA
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 7:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Kaiky Marques Naves - 9'
Marko Milovanović - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Espen van Ee - 49'

CONTEXT

Alverca claimed a 2-1 home victory against Arouca, leading 1-0 at halftime and maintaining their advantage despite Arouca's dominance in possession at 64% to Alverca's 36%. Considered the stronger team, Arouca created pressure but conceded a second goal, unable to equalize. This result marked a significant structural deviation of 58.2% favoring Alverca, with the outcome aligning with pre-match market probabilities where Alverca held the edge. No red cards were issued, and no notable second-half adjustments altered the flow. Alverca's efficiency in limited possession proved key, turning fewer opportunities into goals while Arouca struggled to convert their control. The match exemplified how underdogs can triumph through precise execution rather than territorial dominance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alverca's win showed a 58.2% structural deviation, rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Rosa
D. Rosa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
F. Gomes Azevedo Duarte
F. Gomes Azevedo Duarte
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
R. Gomes Carreira
R. Gomes Carreira
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
H. Tavares dos Santos
H. Tavares dos Santos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.05
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
VS
Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nacional Rank: L
Casa Pia Rank: W
Rio Ave Rank: W
Sporting CP Rank: L
Gil Vicente Rank: D
AVS Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: W
Sporting Braga Rank: L
Estoril Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Benfica Rank: L
Famalicão Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alverca
41.75%
Draw
28.9%
Away Arouca
29.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alverca
-53.48%
Draw
+24.32%
Arouca
+29.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.32
21.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alverca
Arouca
Power Score
21.32
21.92
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alverca Arouca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alverca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alverca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arouca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.50
28.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.59
27.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Alverca -0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Arouca +0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Alverca
Arouca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alverca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arouca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alverca Arouca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alverca Arouca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alverca
Arouca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alverca
vs
Arouca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alverca Arouca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alverca 0.12
Arouca 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alverca Arouca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alverca 0.01
Arouca 0.03
Alverca
Arouca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCA had peak pressure around 17'.
  • ALV started the game with stronger pressure.
ALV Pressure FCA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCA reached the top pressure at 17' (80.94).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alverca ALV Home
1 matches
Arouca FCA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:02:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
Brazil
31 Matheus Mendes
K. Marques Naves
Brazil
4 K. Marques Naves
S. Gómez Solà
Substitution
Spain
5 S. Gómez Solà
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
France
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Morocco
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
R. Simião Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
26 R. Simião Gomes
L. Oliveira dos Santos
Brazil
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
I. James
Nigeria
12 I. James
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Chiquinho
Substitution
Portugal
10 Chiquinho
S. Cesar
Substitution
Brazil
91 S. Cesar

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 24, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Capacity
7705
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Diogo Rosa
Flávio Miguel Gomes Azevedo Duarte
Ricardo Jorge Gomes Carreira
Hugo Daniel Tavares dos Santos

Statistics

Possession
ALV
40%
FCA
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 3
58 Dangerous attacks 86
36 Possession 64
6 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
13 Throwins 26
9 Goal Kicks 5
12 Successful Dribbles 2
21 Dribble Attempts 3
2 Assists 1
14 Successful Headers 8
5 Substitutions 5
67 Ball Safe 76
1 Injuries 0
7 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

92 Attacks 128
5 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

319 Passes 589
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85
241 Successful Passes 498
18 Successful Long Passes 26
45 Long Passes 55
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
6 Key Passes 9

Defensive

44 Duels Won 32
6 Interceptions 12
1 Saves 1
7 Tackles 14

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Diogo Rosa

Starting XI ▼

31
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
7.17
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Defender
6.93
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Defender
6.5
14
Steven Baseya
Steven Baseya
Defender68'
6.6
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Defender
6.56
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.73
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
6.7
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Midfielder
7.09
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Midfielder
6.69
17
Vasco Moreira
Vasco Moreira
Midfielder90+1'
6.71
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
6.97
82
Diogo Spencer
Diogo Spencer
Defender90+1'
6.63
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
6.97
6
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Midfielder82'
6.66
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.74
9
Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović
Attacker68'
6.7
Referee : Diogo Rosa

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
6.85
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Defender
6.76
4
Matías Rocha
Matías Rocha Defender
6.66
9
Fally Mayulu
Fally Mayulu
Attacker83'
6.62
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Defender
6.54
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Defender
6.8
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Midfielder
6.84
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
6.61
19
Alfonso Trezza
Alfonso Trezza
Attacker60'
6.71
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder
6.7
46
Mateo Flores
Mateo Flores
Midfielder75'
6.52
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
6.76
24
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker83'
6.46
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
6.79
89
Pedro Santos
Pedro Santos
Midfielder75'
6.76
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Attacker
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Vasco Seabra
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Vasco Moreira → Rhaldney
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Diogo Spencer → Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
10th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Alfonso Trezza
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Fally Mayulu → Matías Rocha
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Taichi Fukui
7th Substitution
Event
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui → Figueiredo
6th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Mateo Flores → Hyun-ju Lee
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Pedro Santos → Espen van Ee
5th Substitution
Event
Marko Milovanović
Header / 3rd Goal
71'
70'
Event
Espen van Ee
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Marko Milovanović → Sandro Lima
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Steven Baseya → Sergi Gómez Solà
2nd Substitution
68'
67'
Event
Matías Rocha
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
José Fontán
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Alfonso Trezza → Pablo Gozálbez
1st Substitution
49'
Event
Espen van Ee
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Tiago Esgaio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kaiky Marques Naves
Header / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Alverca winning 2-1 against Arouca.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Bas Kuipers concedes it.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Vasco Moreira comes on for Rhaldney.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Diogo Spencer comes on for Chiquinho.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alfonso Trezza of Arouca receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateo Flores of Arouca.
89
Update Update
Chiquinho from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Brian Mansilla of Arouca.
88
Update Update
Brian Mansilla from Arouca wins a free kick on the right wing.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Isaac James of Alverca.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Fally Mayulu comes on for Matías Rocha.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Brian Mansilla comes on for Taichi Fukui.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Chiquinho of Alverca.
83
Update Update
Pedro Santos from Arouca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Davy Gui comes on for Figueiredo.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Barbero of Arouca.
90
Update Update
Handball by Marezi for Alverca.
90
Update Update
Matheus Mendes from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Mateo Flores comes on for Lee Hyun-Ju.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Pedro Santos comes on for Espen van Ee.
74
Update Update
Arouca is called offside as Lee Hyun-Ju is caught in an offside position.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alverca 2, Arouca 1. Marezi scores for Alverca with a header from close range into the bottom left corner, assisted by Chiquinho's cross.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Espen van Ee of Arouca receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Hyun-Ju of Arouca.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Marezi comes on for Sandro Lima.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Steven Baseya comes on for Sergi Gómez.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matías Rocha from Arouca receives a yellow card for a foul.
76
Update Update
Arouca is called offside as Bas Kuipers is caught in an offside position.
70
Update Update
Rhaldney from Alverca wins a free kick on the right wing.
67
Update Update
Sandro Lima from Alverca is flagged for offside.
80
Update Update
Lincoln wins a free kick in their defensive half.
67
Update Update
Chiquinho from Alverca wins a free kick on the left wing.
69
Update Update
Steven Baseya from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Matías Rocha of Arouca.
62
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Trezza from Arouca misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Barbero provided the assist.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
José Fontán from Arouca receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
Naïs Djouahra's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ignacio de Arruabarrena provided the assist.
63
Update Update
Alfonso Trezza wins a free kick on the right wing for Arouca.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Isaac James of Alverca.
61
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Figueiredo from Alverca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Marezi of Alverca.
59
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Espen van Ee from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it goes high and wide to the right.
79
Attempt Attempt
Marezi's left-footed shot from a tough angle on the left is blocked. Isaac James provided the assist with a cross.
58
Update Update
Alverca is called for offside. Lincoln has been caught offside.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Espen van Ee of Arouca.
57
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Taichi Fukui from Arouca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
52
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Bas Kuipers from Arouca has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that goes over the bar. He was assisted by Pablo Gozálbez.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Espen van Ee scores for Arouca with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner. The match is now 1-1.
52
Corner Corner
Taichi Fukui's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top left corner by Matheus Mendes.
47
Attempt Attempt
Taichi Fukui's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Figueiredo from Alverca has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Alfonso Trezza comes on for Pablo Gozálbez.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Alverca 1, Arouca 0.
53
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Sandro Lima from Alverca.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Bas Kuipers concedes.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Matías Rocha concedes it.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
43
Update Update
Figueiredo from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Espen van Ee of Arouca.
42
Update Update
Figueiredo from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Matías Rocha concedes.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Alverca leading Arouca 1-0.
36
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Chiquinho from Alverca.
29
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Barbero from Arouca has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Matheus Mendes from Alverca saves it in the top left corner. The assist came from Lee Hyun-Ju with a cross.
27
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Figueiredo from Alverca with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ignacio de Arruabarrena from Arouca receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
35
Update Update
Chiquinho from Alverca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Tiago Esgaio of Arouca.
26
Update Update
Figueiredo from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Barbero of Arouca.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhaldney of Alverca.
14
Attempt Attempt
José Fontán's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Bas Kuipers provided the assist.
13
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca wins a free kick on the left wing.
13
Update Update
Bastien Meupiyou from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio from Arouca commits a handball.
34
Update Update
Figueiredo commits a foul for Alverca.
34
Update Update
Figueiredo commits a foul for Alverca.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alverca leads Arouca 1-0. Kaiky Naves scores for Alverca with a header from the left side of the six-yard box after a corner.
15
Corner Corner
Barbero from Arouca misses the attempt. His header from the center of the box goes just a bit too high. Naïs Djouahra provided the assist with a cross following a corner.
8
Corner Corner
Alverca wins a corner after Tiago Esgaio concedes.
6
Update Update
Alverca is called offside. Figueiredo is the player caught offside.
37
Attempt Attempt
Rhaldney's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Nabil Touaizi provided the assist.
3
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Barbero from Arouca with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Hyun-Ju of Arouca.
2
Update Update
Sandro Lima from Alverca is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
2
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Gozálbez's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
16
Update Update
Isaac James from Alverca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Corner Corner
Alverca wins a corner after Tiago Esgaio concedes.
14
Corner Corner
Arouca wins a corner after Sergi Gómez concedes.
29
Update Update
Offside called against Alverca. Sandro Lima is in an offside position.
18
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
15
Update Update
Taichi Fukui of Arouca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
41
Corner Corner
A corner is awarded to Arouca after a concession by Kaiky Naves.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhaldney of Alverca.

CONCLUSION

Alverca's 2-1 triumph over possession-dominant Arouca underscores the value of clinical finishing in limited chances. Despite Arouca's 64% ball control as the stronger side, Alverca's halftime lead and second-half goal sealed the points. Market alignment confirms pre-match views of a tight contest, with significant deviation highlighting Alverca's outperformance. Without red cards or disruptions, efficiency decided the outcome, favoring the home side's conversion over sustained pressure. This result reinforces that possession alone rarely guarantees victory without end product.