Almería vs Real Valladolid preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 31 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
Real Valladolid REV
KICKOFF : Sun, 31 May - 4:30 PM
Round 42 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Almería welcomes Real Valladolid to the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos for a La Liga 2 regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts occupy third position in the domestic table and carry a clear power advantage of 13.4 points with an overall rating of 69.3 against their visitors' 55.91. Real Valladolid currently sits sixteenth and trails significantly in recent form metrics. Both sides operate without recent outing data, yet the structural gap favors the home team throughout the pitch. Set-piece information remains limited with low confidence indicators and proxy values applied across attacking and defensive categories. The match offers an opportunity for Almería to extend their standing while Valladolid seeks to climb from mid-lower territory.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería sits third in the table with a 13.4-point power advantage over sixteenth-placed Real Valladolid.
  • Form: Almería posts a form score of 24.56 while Real Valladolid registers 11.11.
  • Squad: Almería holds the stronger overall squad rating at 69.3 compared with 55.91 for Real Valladolid.
  • Efficiency: Detailed efficiency data is unavailable for either side ahead of the fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics show no available figures for the upcoming league match.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece analysis carries low confidence with proxy data applied for both teams.
  • xVariable: Almería leads with a 13.4-point power advantage entering the contest.
  • Market: Almería 65.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.5% (Δ+0%) | Real Valladolid 15.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
1.68
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Burgos Rank: 68 D
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 63 W
Málaga Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 70 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 W
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
FC Andorra Rank: 66 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
65.16%
Draw
19.51%
Away Real Valladolid
15.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.3
55.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Real Valladolid
Power Score
69.3
55.91
League Position
3
16
Global Rank
224
476

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Real Valladolid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
25 matches
Real Valladolid REV Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
11
Draws
11
8
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
25
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-28T00:06:14+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
1 A. Fernández Moreno
D. Chirino
22 D. Chirino
R. Ely
5 R. Ely
N. Macedo Monte
4 N. Macedo Monte
A. Muñoz Miguel
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
D. Lopy
17 D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
29 S. Dzodic
A. Embarba Blázquez
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
11 S. Arribas Calvo
J. Morcillo Conesa
7 J. Morcillo Conesa
M. De la Fuente Escudero
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
Á. Aceves Catalina
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
D. Torres Ortiz
4 D. Torres Ortiz
M. Jaouab
23 M. Jaouab
P. Tomeo Félez
15 P. Tomeo Félez
P. Gonzalez Carmona
22 P. Gonzalez Carmona
J. Ponceau
21 J. Ponceau
Mario Maroto
16 Mario Maroto
V. Meseguer Cavas
8 V. Meseguer Cavas
I. Alejo Peralta
14 I. Alejo Peralta
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
A. Ndiaye
11 A. Ndiaye

General Information

Date & Time
May 31, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.02
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.85
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Left Back
6.73
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.79
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo Left Wing
7.09
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.54
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Defensive Midfield
6.88
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino Right Back
6.7
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Right Wing
7.15
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.84

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
6.75
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo Midfielder
6.97
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico Midfielder
6.84
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
6.89
11
Amath Ndiaye
Amath Ndiaye Attacker
6.83
4
David Torres
David Torres Left Back
6.76
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer Central Midfield
6.77
16
Mario Maroto
Mario Maroto Central Midfield
6.6
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Right Back
6.72
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Central Midfield
6.84
23
Mohamed Jaouab
Mohamed Jaouab Centre Back
6.54

CONCLUSION

Almería enters the fixture with clear structural and form edges that position them to control proceedings at home. Their higher league standing and power rating suggest a measured approach built on possession and organized defense. Real Valladolid must find ways to disrupt the hosts' rhythm despite trailing in key indicators. Limited set-piece insights add uncertainty around dead-ball situations for both teams. The overall profile points to a contest where Almería can dictate tempo while the visitors look for counter opportunities. Smooth integration of available metrics highlights the home side's favored status without overlooking potential variance in performance on the day.