Alashkert vs Yelimay Semey preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Yerevan Football Academy Thu, 9 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Alashkert Alashkert
1 – 1
Yelimay Semey YEL
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
D. Terteryan - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Arsen Ashirbekov - 60'

CONTEXT

Alashkert hosted Yelimay Semey in the first leg of a two-legged knockout tie that finished 1-1. The home side controlled 55 percent of possession while the visitors held 45 percent. Both teams failed to score in the opening 45 minutes leaving the halftime score level at 0-0. Goals arrived after the interval to produce the final deadlock. Alashkert entered as the stronger side yet could not convert territorial advantage into a win. The result featured a significant deviation of 70.9 percent associated with the home team. No red cards were issued during the contest. The draw leaves the aggregate balanced ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alashkert recorded a significant 70.9 percent structural deviation from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing any alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw outcome was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations could be evaluated because the relevant metrics were missing.
  • Event impact: The second-half goals produced a 1-1 draw that shapes the tie for the second leg.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown resulting in no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Ilioski
V. Ilioski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
V. Mitrevski
V. Mitrevski
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Trajkov
B. Trajkov
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Alashkert V. Gevorgyan
V. Gevorgyan
VS
Yelimay Semey A. Karpovich
A. Karpovich
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alashkert
45.12%
Draw
29.09%
Away Yelimay Semey
25.79%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alashkert
+38.16%
Draw
-57.92%
Yelimay Semey
+19.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alashkert — Opponent-weighted form score
Yelimay Semey — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alashkert Yelimay Semey

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alashkert

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Yelimay Semey

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alashkert ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Yelimay Semey
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.55
31.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.56
26.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Alashkert -0.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Yelimay Semey +0.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alashkert ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Yelimay Semey
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alashkert
vs
Yelimay Semey
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alashkert 0.08
Yelimay Semey 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alashkert Yelimay Semey
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alashkert 0.01
Yelimay Semey 0.01
Alashkert
Yelimay Semey
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Alashkert had peak pressure around 3'.
  • Alashkert started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Alashkert Pressure YEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Alashkert reached the top pressure at 3' (51.24).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alashkert Alashkert Home
0 matches
Yelimay Semey YEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-5-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
A. Beglaryan
Armenia
24 A. Beglaryan
A. Sadoyan
Substitution
Armenia
15 A. Sadoyan
C. Dias Santos
Brazil
3 C. Dias Santos
Y. Matyukhin
4 Y. Matyukhin
R. Hakobyan
Substitution
Armenia
22 R. Hakobyan
E. Piloyan
Substitution
Armenia
8 E. Piloyan
R. Ferreira
Brazil
88 R. Ferreira
F. Olawale
Nigeria
10 F. Olawale
K. Nalbandyan
Armenia
7 (C) K. Nalbandyan
D. Massoumou
Substitution
Republic of the Congo
14 D. Massoumou
M. Fanyé
Substitution
Guinea
11 M. Fanyé
I. Konovalov
Russia
32 I. Konovalov
A. Bakhtiyarov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
17 A. Bakhtiyarov
M. Belančić
Croatia
5 M. Belančić
H. Fernandes Alves
Brazil
3 H. Fernandes Alves
S. Tanasijević
Serbia
26 S. Tanasijević
A. Ashirbek
20 A. Ashirbek
R. Orazov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
18 (C) R. Orazov
A. Tiuliubay
Kazakhstan
44 A. Tiuliubay
H. Ilić
Croatia
23 H. Ilić
E. Placca Fessou
Substitution
Togo
77 E. Placca Fessou
I. Sviridov
Kazakhstan
11 I. Sviridov

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Yerevan Football Academy
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vlatko Ilioski
V. Mitrevski
Boris Trajkov

Statistics

Possession
Alashkert
55%
YEL
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
7 Shots 9
112 Dangerous attacks 84
55 Possession 45
11 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

100 Ball Safe 89
9 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 4
43 Throwins 30
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

100 Attacks 77

Discipline

6 Offsides 5
10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Vlatko Ilioski

Starting XI ▼

24
Arsen Beglaryan
Arsen Beglaryan Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Cézar Henrique
Cézar Henrique Defender
6.26
4
Y. Matyukhin
Y. Matyukhin Defender
6.26
15
A. Sadoyan
A. Sadoyan Defender
6.26
55
Hakob Hakobyan
Hakob Hakobyan
Defender84'
6.5
22
R. Hakobyan
R. Hakobyan Defender
6.5
5
D. Terteryan
D. Terteryan
Defender50'
7
Karen Nalbandyan
Karen Nalbandyan (C) Midfielder
6.44
8
Edgar Piloyan
Edgar Piloyan Midfielder
6.37
—
Edgar Piloyan
78'
10
Olawale Farayola
Olawale Farayola Midfielder
6.37
14
Domi Massoumou
Domi Massoumou Midfielder
6.5
16
Joseph Sabobo
Joseph Sabobo
Midfielder46'
6.37
88
Rafael Jesus
Rafael Jesus Midfielder
6.37
11
M. Touré
M. Touré Attacker
6.46
19
Philip Ejike
Philip Ejike
Attacker77'
Referee : Vlatko Ilioski

Starting XI ▼

32
Ivan Konovalov
Ivan Konovalov Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Higor Gabriel Fernandes Alves
Higor Gabriel Fernandes Alves Defender
6.26
5
Marin Belančić
Marin Belančić Defender
6.26
26
Strahinja Tanasijević
Strahinja Tanasijević Defender
6.26
17
Akmal Bakhtiyarov
Akmal Bakhtiyarov Midfielder
6.37
15
Maj Mittendorfer
Maj Mittendorfer
Defender90+4'
18
Ramazan Orazov
Ramazan Orazov (C) Midfielder
6.5
14
Duban Palacio
Duban Palacio
Midfielder17'
6.37
20
Arsen Ashirbekov
Arsen Ashirbekov Midfielder
6.37
23
Hrvoje Ilic
Hrvoje Ilic Midfielder
6.33
44
Almas Tyulyubay
Almas Tyulyubay Midfielder
6.37
11
Ivan Sviridov
Ivan Sviridov Attacker
6.46
77
Euloge Fessou Placca
Euloge Fessou Placca Attacker
6.5
7
Roman Murtazaev
Roman Murtazaev
Attacker77'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90+11'
Event
Zhan-Ali Payruz
Handball / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Maj Mittendorfer → Akmal Bakhtiyarov
9th Substitution
Event
D. Terteryan
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
Event
Hakob Hakobyan → A. Sadoyan
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Daouda Togola → Edgar Piloyan
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Philip Ejike → M. Touré
4th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Roman Murtazaev → Euloge Fessou Placca
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Zhan-Ali Payruz → Duban Palacio
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Hrvoje Ilic
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Arsen Ashirbekov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
55'
Event
Akmal Bakhtiyarov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
D. Terteryan → R. Hakobyan
3rd Substitution
50'
Event
Joseph Sabobo → Domi Massoumou
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Karen Nalbandyan
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Edgar Piloyan
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
45+4'
Event
Strahinja Tanasijević
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
17'
Event
Duban Palacio → Ramazan Orazov
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
90
Update Update
On Maj Mittendorfer, off Akmal Bakhtiyarov.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Hakob Hakobyan comes on for Arsen Sadoyan.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
Daouda Togola comes on for Edgar Piloyan.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Philip Ejike comes on for Momo Fanye Toure.
77
Update Update
On Zhan Ali Payruz, off Duban Palacio.
77
Update Update
Roman Murtazaev is on, and Euloge Placca Fessou is off.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Hrvoje Ilic.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Akmal Bakhtiyarov.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Update Update
On comes David Terteryan, off goes Robert Hakobyan.
46
Substitution Substitution
Joseph Sabobo is substituted off for Domi Jaures Massoumou.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Karen Nalbandyan receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edgar Piloyan.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Strahinja Tanasijevic.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Update Update
Duban Palacio is on, and Ramazan Orazov is off.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw in leg one leaves both Alashkert and Yelimay Semey with work to do in the return fixture. Alashkert maintained greater possession yet could not translate control into a lead after the interval. The significant deviation attached to the home side underscores how the result diverged from typical expectations for the stronger team. With no red cards issued the match proceeded without disciplinary interruptions that might have altered its course. The even halftime score of 0-0 set the stage for a balanced second period that ultimately produced one goal each. Teams will now prepare for the second leg knowing the aggregate remains level and every detail will matter in the concluding encounter.