Ajax vs AEK Larnaca preview

2026 Club Friendlies 1, World
Johan Cruijff Arena Fri, 10 Jul - 4:00 PM
Club Friendlies 1
Ajax AJA
1 0
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
Full Time Fri, 10 Jul 4:00 PM
Regular Season
Abdellah Ouazane - 84'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ajax 1–0 AEK Larnaca. The result saw Ajax take the points. Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Ajax 1-0 AEK Larnaca. Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Hensgens
R. Hensgens
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. de Nas
R. de Nas
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Osseweijer
M. Osseweijer
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Ordelmans
J. Ordelmans
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ajax Ajax
Ajax
VS
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Panathinaikos Rank: 74 L
FC Volendam Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ajax
0%
Draw
0%
Away AEK Larnaca
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.55
17.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
Power Score
24.55
17.41
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
AEK Larnaca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ajax AEK Larnaca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AEK Larnaca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.27
11.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.97
49.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ajax +3.21 Efficiency Index
vs
AEK Larnaca -3.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AEK Larnaca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ajax AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ajax AEK Larnaca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ajax
vs
AEK Larnaca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ajax AEK Larnaca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ajax 0.23
AEK Larnaca 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ajax AEK Larnaca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ajax 0.00
AEK Larnaca 0.01
Ajax
AEK Larnaca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AJA had peak pressure around 81'.
  • AJA started the game with stronger pressure.
AJA Pressure AEK Larnaca Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AJA reached the top pressure at 81' (94.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ajax AJA Home
0 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:56:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Paes
Netherlands
1 M. Paes
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
A. Bouwman
Netherlands
3 A. Bouwman
Y. Baas
Netherlands
4 Y. Baas
O. Wijndal
Netherlands
5 O. Wijndal
Y. Regeer
Netherlands
6 Y. Regeer
J. Mokio
Belgium
8 J. Mokio
S. Berghuis
Netherlands
7 S. Berghuis
O. Gloukh
Israel
10 O. Gloukh
M. Godts
Belgium
11 M. Godts
D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu
Netherlands
9 D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu
A. Paraskevas
Cyprus
51 A. Paraskevas
Y. Gurfinkel
Israel
13 Y. Gurfinkel
H. Miličević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
15 H. Miličević
Z. Adoni
Cyprus
27 Z. Adoni
J. Miramón Santagertrudis
Spain
21 J. Miramón Santagertrudis
I. Pankov
Bulgaria
6 I. Pankov
Đ. Ivanović
Serbia
9 Đ. Ivanović
J. Repas
Slovenia
20 J. Repas
C. Kyriakou
Cyprus
25 C. Kyriakou
A. Layouni
Tunisia
14 A. Layouni
R. Bajić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 R. Bajić

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 10, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Club Friendlies 1, World · Regular Season
Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena
Capacity
55885
Attendance
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robin Hensgens
Roy de Nas
Michael Osseweijer
J. Ordelmans

Statistics

Possession
AJA
63%
AEK Larnaca
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 3
111 Dangerous attacks 11
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 72
17 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 6
13 Throwins 4
2 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Dribble Attempts 2
11 Successful Dribbles 2
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

145 Attacks 28

Possession

13 Long Passes 28
590 Passes 360
91 Successful Passes Percentage 86
20 Key Passes 2

Defensive

0 Saves 6
10 Tackles 8
6 Interceptions 18
31 Duels Won 25

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Robin Hensgens

Starting XI ▼

1
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.54
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.63
3
Aaron Bouwman
Aaron Bouwman Defender
6.99
4
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
6.75
5
Owen Wijndal
Owen Wijndal Defender
6.74
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Midfielder
6.63
8
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
6.61
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Midfielder
6.75
7
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
6.71
9
Don-Angelo Konadu
Don-Angelo Konadu Attacker
6.58
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.01
Referee : Robin Hensgens

Starting XI ▼

51
Andreas Paraskevas
Andreas Paraskevas Goalkeeper
7.7
13
Yahav Gurfinkel
Yahav Gurfinkel Defender
6.37
15
Hrvoje Milicevic
Hrvoje Milicevic Defender
6.66
21
Jorge Miramón
Jorge Miramón Defender
6.78
27
Zacharias Adoni
Zacharias Adoni Defender
7.16
6
Ivan Pankov
Ivan Pankov Midfielder
6.82
20
Jan Repas
Jan Repas Midfielder
6.16
25
Charalampos Kyriakou
Charalampos Kyriakou Midfielder
6.52
9
Djordje Ivanovic
Djordje Ivanovic Attacker
6.5
11
Riad Bajic
Riad Bajic Attacker
6.5
14
Amor Layouni
Amor Layouni Attacker
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Abdellah Ouazane
1st Goal
84'
82'
Event
Petros Ioannou
2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Steven Berghuis
1st Yellowcard
39'

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Ajax 1-0 AEK Larnaca. Structural assessment: Ajax exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.