AGF vs Odense BK preview

Denmark flag 2026/2027 Superliga, Denmark
Vejlby Stadion
Superliga
AGFAGF
2 – 2
Odense BKODE
Full Time
Round 5 Regular Season
James Bogere - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Fiete Arp - 26', 42'

CONTEXT

AGF and Odense BK played out a 2-2 draw in their encounter. The halftime score was 1-2 with Odense BK leading. AGF held 71 percent possession against the visitors 29 percent. Expected goals stood at 2.15 for AGF and 1 for Odense BK creating a differential of 1.15. The stronger team AGF did not secure the victory as the outcome proved inconsistent with the xG figures. There were no red cards issued in the game. The significant deviation was attributed to AGF. Market alignment was observed despite the result. Efficiency remained in line with expectations based on the available metrics. The match highlighted AGF's control but Odense BK's efficiency in converting chances led to the shared points. Second half adjustments were minimal according to records.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: AGF 2-2 Odense BK. AGF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the xG projections.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: AGF had higher xG at 2.15 compared to Odense BK's 1.0.
  • Event impact: The draw occurred despite AGF being the stronger team.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Kristoffersen
M. Kristoffersen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Risum
R. Risum
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Kronlykke
O. Kronlykke
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Rasmussen
J. Rasmussen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Odense BK T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: 68 L
Lyngby Boldklub Rank: 57 D
Brøndby IF Rank: 69 D
Viborg FF Rank: 68 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 69 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Horsens Rank: 50 L
Silkeborg IF Rank: 61 L
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 65 W
Viborg FF Rank: 68 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 53 L
Randers FC Rank: 59 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.53
58.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Odense BK
Power Score
70.53
58.37
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
227
601

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Odense BK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.48
25.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.69
51.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF +2.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Odense BK -2.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Odense BK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF
vs
Odense BK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Odense BK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
28%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.60 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Odense BK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
28%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -0.60
AGF
Odense BK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AGF
vs
Odense BK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AGF Odense BK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AGF 0.28
Odense BK 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AGF Odense BK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AGF 0.07
Odense BK 0.02
AGF
Odense BK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AGF had peak pressure around 24'.
  • AGF started the game with stronger pressure.
AGF Pressure ODE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AGF reached the top pressure at 24' (75.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AGF AGF Home
2 matches
Odense BK ODE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
7
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:05:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Superliga, Denmark · Round 5 · Regular Season
Stadium
Vejlby Stadion
Capacity
11500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen
Rene Risum
Ole Kronlykke
Jacob Rasmussen

Statistics

Possession
AGF
68%
ODE
32%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
13 Shots 4
111 Dangerous attacks 29
71 Possession 29
15 Corners 0
14 Free kicks 2
0 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 65
5 Goal Kicks 10
16 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 6
25 Throwins 13
3 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
28 Dribble Attempts 8
19 Successful Dribbles 6
68 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75

Attacking

134 Attacks 63
3 Big Chances Missed 1
0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

57 Long Passes 49
670 Passes 278
598 Successful Passes 208
89 Successful Passes Percentage 75
23 Key Passes 3
31 Successful Long Passes 18
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

0 Saves 3
12 Tackles 11
11 Interceptions 10
56 Duels Won 31

Build-up

41 Total Crosses 7
10 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
2 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Starting XI ▼

21
Mads Hedenstad
Mads Hedenstad Goalkeeper
6.07
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl (C) Defender
7.21
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen Defender
6.13
33
Luka Callø
Luka Callø
Defender46'
6.73
44
Mouhammade Camara
Mouhammade Camara Defender
6.54
14
Tobias Mölgaard
Tobias Mölgaard
Defender80'
6.5
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
7.56
7
Markus Solbakken
Markus Solbakken Midfielder
7.03
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad
Midfielder64'
7.07
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
8.49
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
7.23
29
Rasmus Carstensen
Rasmus Carstensen
Defender64'
7.48
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen Attacker
8.06
28
James Bogere
James Bogere Attacker
7.23
13
Janni Serra
Janni Serra
Attacker72'
6.98
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
7.27
Referee : Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
6.36
2
Peter Therkildsen
Peter Therkildsen Defender
6.68
5
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Defender74'
6.28
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.81
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
6.53
29
James Gomez
James Gomez Defender
7.05
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
2
8
18
Alexander Ahl-Holmström
Alexander Ahl-Holmström
Attacker65'
6.64
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk (C) Midfielder
6.31
6
Jakob Bonde
Jakob Bonde
Midfielder82'
6.5
9
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen Midfielder
6.76
14
Christian Gammelgaard
Christian Gammelgaard Midfielder
6.25
3
Adam Sørensen
Adam Sørensen
Defender82'
6.68
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.33
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
6.38
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot
Attacker64'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Alexander Ahl-Holmström
6th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Topi Keskinen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Jakob Bonde → Rasmus Falk
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Adam Sørensen → Christian Gammelgaard
10th Substitution
Event
Tobias Mölgaard → Mouhammade Camara
8th Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Rasmus Carstensen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
75'
74'
Event
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen → Peter Therkildsen
7th Substitution
Event
Janni Serra → James Bogere
6th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
James Gomez
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Alexander Ahl-Holmström → Fiete Arp
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Peter Therkildsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kristian Arnstad → Markus Solbakken
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Rasmus Carstensen → Frederik Emmery
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Jay-Roy Grot → Noah Ganaus
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Rasmus Falk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Luka Callø → Jacob Andersen
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Fiete Arp
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
26'
Event
Fiete Arp
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
James Bogere
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luka Callo attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Jorgensen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Janni Serra attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Topi Keskinen receives a yellow card.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Topi Keskinen receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Janni Serra takes a header but misses the shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Carstensen takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Attempt Attempt
Alex Ahl-Holmstrom takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Janni Serra takes a header but misses the shot.
82
Update Update
On comes Jacob Bonde, off goes Rasmus Falk Jensen.
82
Update Update
Adam Sorensen replaces Christian Gammelgaard.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Update Update
Tobias Molgaard Henriksen comes on for Mouhammade Camara.
79
Update Update
Tobias Molgaard Henriksen comes on for Mouhammade Camara.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ismahila Ouedraogo.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Rasmus Carstensen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rasmus Carstensen scores to make it 2-2, assisted by Magnus Knudsen.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Update Update
Ulrik Yttergard Jenssen is on, and Peter Therkildsen is off.
72
Update Update
Janni Serra is on, and James Bogere is off.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Malt Arnstad takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Gomez receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Alex Ahl-Holmstrom replaces Fiete Arp.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Peter Therkildsen.
64
Update Update
Jay Roy Grot is on, and Noah Ganaus is off.
64
Update Update
Rasmus Carstensen is on, and Frederik Emmery is off.
64
Update Update
On Kristian Malt Arnstad, off Markus Solbakken.
62
Update Update
Offside.
60
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rasmus Falk Jensen receives a yellow card.
51
Attempt Attempt
Markus Solbakken takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Attempt Attempt
Eric Kahl takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Luka Callo comes on for Jacob Andersen.
45
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Jorgensen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Update Update
Mouhammade Camara's header is blocked.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Fiete Arp takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiete Arp scores, making it 1-2.
39
Attempt Attempt
Gift Links takes a left-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Marcus McCoy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Attempt Attempt
Markus Solbakken takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot by James Bogere with his right foot hits the post.
30
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Fiete Arp scores with a right-footed shot.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiete Arp scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
23
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
James Bogere takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! James Bogere scores to make it 1-0.
20
Attempt Attempt
James Bogere takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Jorgensen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Markus Solbakken takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Markus Solbakken takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Andersen attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mads Kristoffersen.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between AGF and Odense BK showcased a mismatch between expected and actual results. Although AGF controlled the game with superior possession and xG they could not overcome the visitors' resilience. Halftime saw Odense ahead but the second half brought parity. The absence of red cards meant no major distortions occurred. Efficiency metrics stayed aligned throughout the contest. This result underscores the unpredictability in football where xG does not always dictate the final scoreline. AGF will reflect on missed opportunities while Odense BK can take positives from holding the stronger side. Overall the game provided insights into performance versus outcome dynamics.