AGF vs Lech Poznań preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Cepheus Park Randers Tue, 21 Jul - 5:00 PM
Champions League
AGFAGF
1 4
Lech PoznańLPO
Full Time Tue, 21 Jul 5:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|
Goal
Patrik Wålemark - 42', 65'
Terry Yegbe - 61'
Jesper Hansen 37' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. AGF 1–4 Lech Poznań. The result saw Lech Poznań take the points. Lech Poznań showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished AGF 0.9 – 1.4 Lech Poznań. Possession was 43%–57%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: AGF 1-4 Lech Poznań. Lech Poznań showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Reitala
O. Reitala
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Honkanen
J. Honkanen
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Jantunen
O. Jantunen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Munukka
A. Munukka
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
AGF J. Poulsen
J. Poulsen
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AGF
1.44%
Draw
1.9%
Away Lech Poznań
96.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.96
73.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AGF
Lech Poznań
Power Score
73.96
73.43
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
155
162

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AGF — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AGF Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AGF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AGF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.63
33.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.68
31.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AGF -0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AGF
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AGF
vs
Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AGF Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
17%
22%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.16 vs -0.31
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AGF Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
22%
17%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.31 vs -0.16
AGF
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AGF
vs
Lech Poznań
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AGF Lech Poznań
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AGF 0.21
Lech Poznań 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AGF Lech Poznań
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AGF 0.09
Lech Poznań 0.02
AGF
Lech Poznań
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LPO had peak pressure around 44'.
  • AGF started the game with stronger pressure.
AGF Pressure LPO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LPO reached the top pressure at 44' (70.86).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 21, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Cepheus Park Randers
Capacity
10300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oliver Reitala
Jukka Honkanen
Olli Jantunen
Antti Munukka

Statistics

Possession
AGF
47%
LPO
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 44
43 Possession 57
4 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 8
5 Substitutions 6
20 Throwins 18
1 Assists 4
13 Dribble Attempts 10
10 Successful Dribbles 6
77 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

Attacking

95 Attacks 90

Possession

66 Long Passes 48
357 Passes 473
276 Successful Passes 390
77 Successful Passes Percentage 82
9 Key Passes 14
28 Successful Long Passes 20
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

3 Saves 2
11 Tackles 14
11 Interceptions 11
44 Duels Won 41

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 17
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Oliver Reitala

Starting XI ▼

1
Jesper Hansen
Jesper Hansen Goalkeeper
5.6
5
Frederik Tingager
Frederik Tingager Defender
6.64
19
Eric Kahl
Eric Kahl Defender
6.55
40
Jonas Jensen-Abbew
Jonas Jensen-Abbew Defender
6.03
26
Jacob Andersen
Jacob Andersen
Defender74'
6.77
4
Magnus Knudsen
Magnus Knudsen Midfielder
6.34
10
Kristian Arnstad
Kristian Arnstad (C) Midfielder
7.47
11
Gift Links
Gift Links Midfielder
6.31
20
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson
Attacker83'
6.59
39
Frederik Emmery
Frederik Emmery Midfielder
7.65
8
Sebastian Jørgensen
Sebastian Jørgensen Attacker
6.6
21
Mads Hedenstad
Mads Hedenstad
Goalkeeper40'
6.05
23
Mikael Anderson
Mikael Anderson Attacker
6.81
17
Kevin Yakob
Kevin Yakob
Midfielder73'
6.54
31
Tobias Bech
Tobias Bech Attacker
6.46
28
James Bogere
James Bogere
Attacker73'
6.44
Referee : Oliver Reitala

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
7.23
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny
Defender79'
6.42
15
Michał Gurgul
Michał Gurgul Defender
7.75
27
Wojciech Mońka
Wojciech Mońka Defender
7.27
59
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Defender
7.64
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
2
8.38
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson
Midfielder66'
6.47
21
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
7.05
22
Radosław Murawski
Radosław Murawski Midfielder
6.77
24
Filip Jagiełło
Filip Jagiełło
Midfielder54'
6.41
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
7.46
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
7.26
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder66'
6.47
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak (C) Attacker
7.35
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker67'
6.32

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tómas Óli Kristjánsson → Gift Links
10th Substitution
83'
79'
Event
Robert Gumny → Joel Pereira
9th Substitution
Event
Jacob Andersen → Jonas Jensen-Abbew
8th Substitution
74'
Event
James Bogere → Tobias Bech
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Kevin Yakob → Mikael Anderson
7th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Yannick Agnero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak 
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Leo Bengtsson → Patrik Wålemark
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Luis Palma
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
61'
Event
Terry Yegbe
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Kristian Arnstad
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
54'
Event
Filip Jagiełło → Radosław Murawski
2nd Substitution
50'
Event
Radosław Murawski
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Gift Links
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
45+6'
42'
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mads Hedenstad → Sebastian Jørgensen
1st Substitution
40'
Event
Jesper Hansen
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
37'
Event
Jesper Hansen
Card adjusted
36'
29'
Event
Mikael Ishak 
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Hakans takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Tingager's header is saved.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 1-4.
89
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Tingager takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Update Update
Tomas Kristjansson comes on for Gift Links.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Robert Gumny comes on for Joel Pereira.
73
Update Update
On Mikael Neville Anderson, off Jonas Jensen-Abbew.
73
Update Update
On comes James Bogere, off goes Tobias Bech.
72
Update Update
On Mikael Neville Anderson, off Jonas Jensen-Abbew.
72
Substitution Substitution
James Bogere is substituted for Tobias Bech.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substituting Kevin Yakob for Mikael Neville Anderson.
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Mel Yannick Joel Agnero with his left foot, but it's blocked.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Substitution Substitution
Leo Bengtsson is substituted for Patrik Walemark.
66
Update Update
On Mel Yannick Joel Agnero comes on for Mikael Ishak.
66
Update Update
Daniel Hakans is on, and Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera is off.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Patrik Walemark scores with a left-footed shot.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Patrik Walemark scores with a left-footed shot.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Patrik Walemark takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patrik Walemark scores, making it 1-4, assisted by Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Terry Yegbe scores with a left-footed shot.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patrik Walemark scores to make it 1-4, assisted by Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Terry Yegbe scores, making it 1-3.
58
Attempt Attempt
Magnus Knudsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Kristian Malt Arnstad with his right foot results in a goal.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kristian Malt Arnstad scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Frederik Emmery.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kristian Malt Arnstad scores, making it 1-2.
52
Attempt Attempt
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Radoslaw Murawski.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gift Links receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Patrik Walemark scores with a left-footed shot.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
40
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it’s saved.
40
Update Update
On comes Mads Christiansen, off goes Sebastian Jorgensen.
37
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Jesper Hansen.
36
Update Update
VAR Decision - vip_for_unknown.true
35
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
Frederik Emmery takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Mikael Ishak takes a left-footed shot.
29
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Attempt Attempt
Michal Gurgul takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Bech takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Neville Anderson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oliver Reitala.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: AGF 1-4 Lech Poznań. Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.