AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Vitality Stadium Tue, 19 May - 6:30 PM
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth BOU
1 1
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Tue, 19 May 6:30 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Eli Kroupi - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Erling Haaland - 90+5'

CONTEXT

In a closely contested Premier League encounter, AFC Bournemouth held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw. The home side started brightly and secured a halftime lead of 1-0. Manchester City responded after the interval, leveling the score to end the game level. Possession stats favored the away team at 55 percent, allowing them more opportunities to create chances. Bournemouth defended stoutly to limit clear openings for their illustrious opponents. The draw represents a positive outcome for the Cherries against a side expected to challenge for the title. No disciplinary issues arose with zero red cards shown. This fixture demonstrated the growing competitiveness in the league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City. Manchester City showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable for detailed assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market expectations for this fixture.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be verified without numerical inputs.
  • Event impact: The second half equalizer had a significant event impact on the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent as no cards were shown to either side.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Taylor
A. Taylor
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Nunn
A. Nunn
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Pawson
C. Pawson
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Beswick
G. Beswick
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Leeds United Rank: 88 D
Newcastle United Rank: 90 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Brentford Rank: 89 W
Everton Rank: 87 D
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AFC Bournemouth
4.07%
Draw
90.99%
Away Manchester City
4.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
AFC Bournemouth
-80.15%
Draw
+76.61%
Manchester City
+3.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.87
98.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
Power Score
73.87
98.66
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
11
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
AFC Bournemouth Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AFC Bournemouth Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

AFC Bournemouth

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.78
31.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.18
25.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AFC Bournemouth -0.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City +0.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AFC Bournemouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

AFC Bournemouth
vs
Manchester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AFC Bournemouth Manchester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BOU had peak pressure around 66'.
  • MCI started the game with stronger pressure.
BOU Pressure MCI Pressure
Pressure Index: BOU reached the top pressure at 66' (65.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AFC Bournemouth BOU Home
19 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
18
0
Draws
0
18
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
56
56
Goals Conceded
13
-43
Goal Difference
+43
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-20T00:02:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
Đ. Petrović
Serbia
1 Đ. Petrović
A. Smith
Substitution
England
15 A. Smith
J. Hill
England
23 J. Hill
M. Senesi
Argentina
5 M. Senesi
A. Truffert
France
3 A. Truffert
A. Scott
England
8 A. Scott
T. Adams
United States
12 T. Adams
R. Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
37 R. Rocha
E. Kroupi
Substitution
France
22 E. Kroupi
M. Tavernier
England
16 M. Tavernier
F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
9 F. de Lima Barbosa
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
J. Doku
Substitution
Belgium
11 J. Doku
M. Kovačić
Substitution
Croatia
8 M. Kovačić
B. Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 B. Silva
A. Semenyo
Substitution
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland

General Information

Date & Time
May 19, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Vitality Stadium
Capacity
11700
Attendance
11218
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Taylor
Adam Nunn
Craig Pawson
Gary Beswick

Statistics

Possession
BOU
45%
MCI
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 5
32 Dangerous attacks 63
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
8 Goal Attempts 6
80 Ball Safe 81
4 Substitutions 4
2 Hit Woodwork 1
18 Throwins 14
7 Dribble Attempts 25
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 68
10 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 17
11 Successful Headers 11

Attacking

72 Attacks 115
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 87
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
346 Successful Passes 459
10 Key Passes 8
18 Successful Long Passes 22
432 Passes 529
54 Long Passes 42

Defensive

2 Interceptions 5
18 Tackles 5
40 Duels Won 50
3 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 17
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

16 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI

1
Djordje Petrovic
Djordje Petrovic Goalkeeper
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith Defender
4
Lewis Cook
Lewis Cook
Midfielder90'
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
8
Alex Scott
Alex Scott Midfielder
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
22
Eli Kroupi
Eli Kroupi Midfielder
19
Justin Kluivert
Justin Kluivert
Attacker76'
37
Rayan
Rayan Midfielder
7
David Brooks
David Brooks
Midfielder84'
9
Evanilson
Evanilson Attacker
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal
Attacker89'
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder56'
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush
Attacker76'
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki
Midfielder56'
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
26
Savinho
Savinho
Attacker56'
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adrien Truffert
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Justin Kluivert 
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
90+3'
Event
Rodri
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Lewis Cook Adam Smith
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Enes Ünal Evanilson
7th Substitution
89'
Event
David Brooks Rayan
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Justin Kluivert  Eli Kroupi
4th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Omar Marmoush Jérémy Doku
5th Substitution
Event
James Hill
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
56'
Event
Phil Foden Mateo Kovacic 
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Savinho Antoine Semenyo
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Rayan Cherki Bernardo Silva
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Eli Kroupi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'
Event
Tyler Adams
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
37'
13'
Event
Antoine Semenyo
Var

Match Commentary

56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Phil Foden replaces Mateo Kovacic.
35
Update Update
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Justin Kluivert replaces Junior Kroupi.
70
Update Update
Gianluigi Donnarumma of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Rayan Cherki replaces Bernardo Silva.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
New attacking attempt. Antoine Semenyo of Manchester City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Djordje Petrovic of Bournemouth saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Rodri.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Adam Smith concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rodri's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Savinho.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Bournemouth and Manchester City.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner.
90
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Justin Kluivert of Bournemouth receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Enes Ünal is called offside for Bournemouth.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Lewis Cook replaces Adam Smith due to injury.
89
Corner Corner
David Brooks from Bournemouth attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Gianluigi Donnarumma from Manchester City saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Marcus Tavernier.
89
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson from Bournemouth had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went just to the left. David Brooks provided the assist.
88
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly fouled by Manchester City.
88
Update Update
Evanilson from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdukodir Khusanov of Manchester City.
86
Update Update
Justin Kluivert from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: David Brooks replaces Rayan.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams for Bournemouth.
78
Update Update
Nico O'Reilly's header from the center of the box is blocked.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Smith of Bournemouth.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City, conceded by Adam Smith.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Omar Marmoush replaces Jérémy Doku.
74
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Cherki's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Jérémy Doku provided the assist.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Adam Smith concedes.
83
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City won a free kick in an attacking position.
55
Update Update
Matheus Nunes from Manchester City won a free kick on the right wing.
53
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Silva's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
52
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Gianluigi Donnarumma concedes.
52
Attempt Attempt
Evanilson's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Adrien Truffert provided the assist.
49
Attempt Attempt
Rayan's shot for Bournemouth from outside the box is blocked. Alex Scott provided the assist.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Rayan concedes.
48
Update Update
Offside called against Manchester City. Erling Haaland is offside.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Bournemouth 1, Manchester City 0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Bournemouth leading Manchester City 1-0.
44
Update Update
Foul by Marc Guéhi against Manchester City.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Erling Haaland of Manchester City.
41
Update Update
Offside called against Bournemouth. Junior Kroupi is in an offside position.
44
Update Update
Evanilson from Bournemouth won a free kick on the right wing.
33
Update Update
Marc Guéhi of Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayan for Bournemouth.
28
Update Update
Adam Smith from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Marc Guéhi - Manchester City.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after a concession by Evanilson.
24
Update Update
Evanilson fouled a Bournemouth player.
24
Update Update
Marc Guéhi from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
21
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Marc Guéhi concedes.
17
Update Update
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City won a free kick in an attacking position.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Smith of Bournemouth.
14
Update Update
Abdukodir Khusanov from Manchester City misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the left. Rodri provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Handball by Junior Kroupi of Bournemouth.
6
Update Update
Marcus Tavernier from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Antoine Semenyo is ruled offside for Manchester City.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Antoine Semenyo against Manchester City.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Justin Kluivert against Bournemouth.
69
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Abdukodir Khusanov concedes.
69
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Gianluigi Donnarumma concedes.
68
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City won a free kick on the right wing.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Marcus Tavernier for Bournemouth.
28
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Erling Haaland from Manchester City had a left-footed shot inside the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
28
Update Update
Rodri's header from the center of the box is blocked. Bernardo Silva provided the assist with a cross.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Evanilson from Bournemouth misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, just missing the goal. The assist came from Marcus Tavernier's cross.
5
Corner Corner
Jérémy Doku from Manchester City attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but Djordje Petrovic from Bournemouth saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Antoine Semenyo.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Truffert - Bournemouth.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Justin Kluivert against Bournemouth.
90
Update Update
Omar Marmoush from Manchester City won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Omar Marmoush's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Justin Kluivert for Bournemouth.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodri from Manchester City receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Brooks from Bournemouth hits the right post with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Enes Ünal after a fast break.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bournemouth: Enes Ünal replaces Evanilson.
82
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City commits a foul.
82
Update Update
Rayan from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
79
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
79
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
75
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Abdukodir Khusanov concedes.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Manchester City after Rayan concedes.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Bournemouth. Junior Kroupi's right-footed shot from outside the box goes high and wide to the left, assisted by Evanilson after a fast break.
70
Update Update
Evanilson fouled a Bournemouth player.
63
Attempt Attempt
Rodri from Manchester City misses a chance as his right-footed shot from outside the box goes high, assisted by Jérémy Doku.
67
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Matheus Nunes concedes.
62
Corner Corner
Rayan from Bournemouth hits the left post with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side, assisted by James Hill after a corner.
61
Corner Corner
Bournemouth wins a corner after Abdukodir Khusanov concedes.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Hill from Bournemouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by James Hill of Bournemouth.
59
Update Update
Savinho from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
James Hill's header from inside the six-yard box is blocked on the left side after a cross from Marcus Tavernier.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rodri from Manchester City hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Manchester City: Savinho replaces Antoine Semenyo.
46
Corner Corner
Nico O'Reilly from Manchester City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Djordje Petrovic from Bournemouth saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Erling Haaland with a through ball.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Smith of Bournemouth.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Marc Guéhi of Manchester City.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bournemouth leads 1-0 against Manchester City. Junior Kroupi scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Adrien Truffert.
37
Update Update
James Hill from Bournemouth won a free kick in defense.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tyler Adams from Bournemouth receives a yellow card.
36
Update Update
Rodri from Manchester City won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyler Adams against Bournemouth.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City. Structural assessment: Manchester City exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.