AF Elbasani vs BATE preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Elbasan Arena Tue, 7 Jul - 6:00 PM
Europa Conference League
AF Elbasani ELB
1 – 1
BATE BAT
Full Time Tue, 7 Jul 6:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Ardit Nikaj - 45+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Egor Rusakov - 67'

CONTEXT

AF Elbasani welcomed BATE for the opening leg of their two-match tie. The hosts asserted early dominance and entered the interval ahead after scoring once in the first half to lead 1-0. They maintained 61 percent possession throughout yet could not add to their advantage before the break. BATE responded effectively after halftime by finding an equalizer that leveled the score at 1-1. The stronger side AF Elbasani ultimately settled for a draw on home soil. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. The significant deviation from pre-match projections centered on the home side failing to secure victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The result featured a significant 76 percent deviation from pre-match projections centered on AF Elbasani.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with established patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw finished unaligned with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: No prior expected goals figures were available for either team.
  • Event impact: BATE's second-half equalizer directly produced the final 1-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown so no disciplinary distortion affected the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Orlic
I. Orlic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Oală
D. Oală
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Basiul
A. Basiul
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Stoianov
O. Stoianov
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
AF Elbasani I. Gvozdenovic
I. Gvozdenovic
VS
BATE V. Rogozhkin
V. Rogozhkin
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AF Elbasani
60.69%
Draw
23.96%
Away BATE
15.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
AF Elbasani
+55.28%
Draw
-66.25%
BATE
+10.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AF Elbasani
BATE
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AF Elbasani — Opponent-weighted form score
BATE — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AF Elbasani BATE

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AF Elbasani

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

BATE

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AF Elbasani ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy BATE
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.44
18.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.59
28.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AF Elbasani +1.01 Efficiency Index
vs
BATE -1.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AF Elbasani
BATE
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AF Elbasani ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy BATE
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AF Elbasani BATE
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AF Elbasani BATE
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AF Elbasani
BATE
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AF Elbasani
vs
BATE
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AF Elbasani BATE
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AF Elbasani 0.21
BATE 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AF Elbasani BATE
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AF Elbasani 0.02
BATE 0.01
AF Elbasani
BATE
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ELB had peak pressure around 13'.
  • ELB started the game with stronger pressure.
ELB Pressure BAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELB reached the top pressure at 13' (68.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AF Elbasani ELB Home
0 matches
BATE BAT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:51:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
I. Aleksovski
Macedonia
24 I. Aleksovski
B. Lila
Albania
77 B. Lila
Y. Epitaux
Switzerland
15 Y. Epitaux
B. Lulaj
Albania
4 (C) B. Lulaj
K. Kasa
Albania
11 K. Kasa
L. Tresa
Substitution
Albania
25 L. Tresa
A. Ibrahim
Nigeria
17 A. Ibrahim
A. Kasa
Substitution
Albania
18 A. Kasa
I. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
79 I. Diallo
R. Hebaj
Substitution
Albania
9 R. Hebaj
A. Nikaj
Substitution
Albania
10 A. Nikaj
S. Danila
Belarus
16 S. Danila
K. Kaplenko
Substitution
Belarus
55 K. Kaplenko
A. Rakhmanov
Belarus
33 (C) A. Rakhmanov
M. Sakuta
5 M. Sakuta
N. Neskoromny
Belarus
25 N. Neskoromny
E. Kress
Belarus
52 E. Kress
V. Angban
Ivory Coast
7 V. Angban
H. Mosahanian
France
6 H. Mosahanian
V. Varaksa
Substitution
Belarus
26 V. Varaksa
E.Puerto
Substitution
Honduras
37 E.Puerto
A. Zhurin
Substitution
42 A. Zhurin

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 07, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Elbasan Arena
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ion Orlic
Denis Oală
Anatolie Basiul
Oleg Stoianov

Statistics

Possession
ELB
58%
BAT
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
9 Shots 3
67 Dangerous attacks 45
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

102 Ball Safe 86
12 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 4
23 Throwins 14
3 Injuries 0

Attacking

130 Attacks 100

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Ion Orlic

Starting XI ▼

24
Igor Aleksovski
Igor Aleksovski Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Bruno Lulaj
Bruno Lulaj (C) Defender
6.25
11
Klevis Kasa
Klevis Kasa Defender
6.25
15
Yoan Epitaux
Yoan Epitaux Defender
6.25
77
Bledar Lila
Bledar Lila Defender
6.25
10
Ardit Nikaj
Ardit Nikaj Midfielder
6.37
22
Arsen Lleshi
Arsen Lleshi
Attacker89'
17
Abbas Ibrahim
Abbas Ibrahim Midfielder
6.37
18
Arsen Kasa
Arsen Kasa Midfielder
6.37
14
Mario Barjamaj
Mario Barjamaj
Midfielder74'
25
Ledjo Tresa
Ledjo Tresa Midfielder
6.37
70
Insa Boye
Insa Boye
Midfielder84'
6.5
79
Ibrahima Diallo
Ibrahima Diallo Midfielder
6.37
20
Bernard Karrica
Bernard Karrica
Midfielder84'
9
Rubin Hebaj
Rubin Hebaj Attacker
6.46
23
Edoly Lukoki
Edoly Lukoki
Attacker74'
Referee : Ion Orlic

Starting XI ▼

16
Danila Sokol
Danila Sokol Goalkeeper
6.12
5
Maksim Sakuta
Maksim Sakuta Defender
6.25
6
Haik Moussakhanian
Haik Moussakhanian Defender
6.25
25
Nikita Neskoromnyi
Nikita Neskoromnyi Defender
6.25
33
Artem Rakhmanov
Artem Rakhmanov (C) Defender
6.25
42
Andrey Zhurin
Andrey Zhurin Defender
6.24
10
Egor Rusakov
Egor Rusakov
Midfielder46'
6.69
7
Victorien Angban
Victorien Angban Midfielder
6.37
26
V. Varaksa
V. Varaksa Midfielder
6.37
8
Kirill Apanasevich
Kirill Apanasevich
Attacker82'
6.5
52
Egor Kress
Egor Kress Midfielder
6.48
55
Kirill Kaplenko
Kirill Kaplenko Midfielder
6.37
47
Ales Sakhonchik
Ales Sakhonchik
Midfielder62'
37
Erick Puerto
Erick Puerto Attacker
6.46
13
Yaroslav Khramtsevich
Yaroslav Khramtsevich
Midfielder90+3'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Yaroslav Khramtsevich → Erick Puerto
9th Substitution
Event
Arsen Lleshi → Ardit Nikaj
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Insa Boye → Ledjo Tresa
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Bernard Karrica → Ibrahima Diallo
7th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Kirill Apanasevich → V. Varaksa
5th Substitution
Event
Mario Barjamaj → Arsen Kasa
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Edoly Lukoki → Rubin Hebaj
4th Substitution
74'
67'
Event
Egor Rusakov
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Yoan Epitaux
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
62'
Event
Ales Sakhonchik → Kirill Kaplenko
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Egor Rusakov → Andrey Zhurin
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ardit Nikaj
Field Goal / 1st Goal
45+1'
12'
Event
Andrey Zhurin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Yaroslav Khramtsevich is on, and Erick Puerto is off.
89
Update Update
On Arsen Lleshi, off Ardit Nikaj.
84
Substitution Substitution
Insa Boye is substituted for Ledio Tresa.
84
Update Update
On comes Bernard Karrica, off goes Ibrahima Diallo.
82
Update Update
Kirill Apanasevich is on, and Vladislav Varaksa is off.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Update Update
Mario Barjamaj comes on for Arsen Kasa.
74
Substitution Substitution
Edoly Lukoki Mateso is substituted for Rubin Hebaj.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoan Epitaux receives a yellow card.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Update Update
Ales Sakhonchik is on, and Kirill Kaplenko is off.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Egor Rusakov comes on for Andrey Zhurin.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Andrey Zhurin.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ion Orlic.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw leaves the tie perfectly balanced ahead of the return fixture. AF Elbasani controlled territory and created the better first-half platform yet could not convert their edge into a decisive lead. BATE demonstrated resilience by leveling after the interval and denying the hosts a home victory. Possession favored the stronger team but efficiency proved comparable across both sides. With no disciplinary incidents to alter the flow the contest remained open throughout. Both teams now carry identical prospects into the second leg where the outcome will determine progression.