AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
AEK Arena - George Karapatakis Thu, 23 Jul - 4:30 PM
Europa Conference League
AEK LarnacaAEK
0 1
Beitar JerusalemBEI
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 4:30 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Mike van der Hoorn 72' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

AEK Larnaca hosted Beitar Jerusalem in the first leg of their knockout tie and suffered a 0-1 defeat. The sides were level at halftime with no goals scored. Beitar Jerusalem held 64 percent possession against AEK Larnaca's 36 percent. A red card to the home side altered proceedings after the break. Beitar Jerusalem the stronger team claimed the away victory. The deviation level reached 73.3 percent and was classified as significant. Second half adjustments focused on red card distortion which shaped the outcome. This result leaves AEK Larnaca facing a deficit ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem. Beitar Jerusalem showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's overall dominance.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment data was unavailable preventing direct comparison of expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed owing to null values in the dataset.
  • Event impact: The away victory by Beitar Jerusalem carried substantial event impact on the tie.
  • Red card distortion: A red card to AEK Larnaca caused red card distortion affecting second half play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Wattellier
E. Wattellier
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Auger
A. Auger
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Gonçalves de Araujo
F. Gonçalves de Araujo
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Petit
A. Petit
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
AEK Larnaca M. Camoranesi
M. Camoranesi
VS
Beitar Jerusalem A. Cohen
A. Cohen
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AEK Larnaca
45.83%
Draw
27.45%
Away Beitar Jerusalem
26.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
AEK Larnaca
+1.09%
Draw
-0.18%
Beitar Jerusalem
-0.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.05
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
Power Score
16.05
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AEK Larnaca — Opponent-weighted form score
Beitar Jerusalem — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AEK Larnaca Beitar Jerusalem

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AEK Larnaca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Beitar Jerusalem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AEK Larnaca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beitar Jerusalem
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.92
29.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.69
22.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AEK Larnaca -0.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Beitar Jerusalem +0.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AEK Larnaca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beitar Jerusalem
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AEK Larnaca Beitar Jerusalem
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AEK Larnaca Beitar Jerusalem
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AEK Larnaca
vs
Beitar Jerusalem
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AEK Larnaca Beitar Jerusalem
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AEK Larnaca 0.13
Beitar Jerusalem 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AEK Larnaca Beitar Jerusalem
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AEK Larnaca 0.02
Beitar Jerusalem 0.00
AEK Larnaca
Beitar Jerusalem
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AEK had peak pressure around 11'.
  • AEK started the game with stronger pressure.
AEK Pressure BEI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AEK reached the top pressure at 11' (75.73).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
AEK Arena - George Karapatakis
Capacity
8058
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Eric Wattellier
Alexis Auger
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
Aurélien Petit

Statistics

Possession
AEK
40%
BEI
60%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Shots 13
45 Dangerous attacks 60
36 Possession 64
4 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
15 Throwins 24

Attacking

74 Attacks 98

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

51
Andreas Paraskevas
Andreas Paraskevas Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Mike van der Hoorn
Mike van der Hoorn Defender
5.94
15
Hrvoje Milicevic
Hrvoje Milicevic (C) Defender
6.26
17
Kostas Pileas
Kostas Pileas Defender
6.5
13
Yahav Gurfinkel
Yahav Gurfinkel
Defender62'
6.26
6
Ivan Pankov
Ivan Pankov Midfielder
6.5
25
Charalampos Kyriakou
Charalampos Kyriakou
Midfielder68'
6.37
7
Gus Ledes
Gus Ledes Midfielder
6.37
9
Djordje Ivanovic
Djordje Ivanovic Midfielder
6.5
8
Youssef Amyn
Youssef Amyn
Midfielder63'
6.37
14
Amor Layouni
Amor Layouni Midfielder
6.5
44
Zacharias Adoni
Zacharias Adoni
Defender76'
6.26
20
Jan Repas
Jan Repas Midfielder
6.37
21
Jorge Miramón
Jorge Miramón Midfielder
6.5
22
Godswill Ekpolo
Godswill Ekpolo
Defender63'
6.26
11
Riad Bajic
Riad Bajic Attacker
6.46
Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

55
Miguel Silva
Miguel Silva Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Nana Antwi
Nana Antwi Defender
6.5
4
Brayan Carabalí
Brayan Carabalí Defender
6.69
5
Gil Cohen
Gil Cohen Defender
6.5
16
Yarden Cohen
Yarden Cohen Defender
6.5
15
Noam Muche
Noam Muche Midfielder
6.45
8
Ziv Ben Shimol
Ziv Ben Shimol
Midfielder82'
6.45
26
Degats Worko
Degats Worko Midfielder
6.5
40
Boris Enow
Boris Enow Midfielder
6.5
7
Yarden Shua
Yarden Shua Attacker
6.5
11
Timothy Muzie
Timothy Muzie
Midfielder57'
6.5
13
Eugene Ansah
Eugene Ansah Attacker
6.46
19
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman
Attacker57'
6.5
77
Omer Atzili
Omer Atzili (C) Attacker
6.46
9
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu
Attacker57'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Ziv Ben Shimol
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Ziv Ben Shimol → Noam Muche
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Brayan Carabalí
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Zacharias Adoni → Amor Layouni
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Mike van der Hoorn
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
72'
Event
Charalampos Kyriakou → Ivan Pankov
7th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Noam Muche
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Youssef Amyn → Djordje Ivanovic
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Godswill Ekpolo → Jorge Miramón
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Yahav Gurfinkel → Kostas Pileas
4th Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu → Omer Atzili
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Timothy Muzie → Yarden Shua
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Shon Weissman → Eugene Ansah
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Omer Atzili
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
7'
Event
Eugene Ansah
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ziv Israel Ben Shimol.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Substitution Substitution
Ziv Israel Ben Shimol is substituted off for Noam Mucha.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brayan Carabali scores to make it 0-1.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
75
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Mike van der Hoorn.
68
Update Update
Charis Kyriakou is on, and Ivan Chavdarov Pankov is off.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nana Kwame Antwi.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
Youssef Amyn replaces Djordje Ivanovic.
63
Update Update
Elohor Godswill Ekpolo is on, and Jorge Miramon Santagertrudis is off.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Update Update
Johnbosco Samuel Kalu is on, and Omer Atzili is off.
57
Update Update
On Johnbosco Samuel Kalu, off Omer Atzili.
57
Update Update
Shon Weissman replaces Eugene Ansah.
57
Substitution Substitution
Timothy Muzie is substituted off for Yarden Shua.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Omer Atzili.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eugene Ansah receives a yellow card.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Eric Wattellier.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: AEK Larnaca 0-1 Beitar Jerusalem. Structural assessment: Beitar Jerusalem exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.